比特币暴跌：经济学家敦促大幅调整，价值估计为 20 美元

周四，比特币跌至几个月来的最低点，两位经济学家宣布，这种加密货币的交易价格仍存在巨大溢价。伦敦经济学院的理查德·杰克曼 (Richard Jackman) 和 Toscafund 资产管理公司的萨瓦斯·萨沃里 (Savvas Savouri) 估计，比特币仅值 20 美元，较 12 月中旬超过 19,000 美元的近期高点大幅下跌。

Bitcoin's Plummeting Value: Economists Argue for Dramatic Correction

比特币价值暴跌：经济学家主张大幅调整

Amidst ongoing market turbulence, the once-soaring cryptocurrency Bitcoin has experienced a significant setback, reaching its lowest point in over two months. While some may attribute this decline to short-term market fluctuations, two prominent economists contend that Bitcoin is still significantly overvalued, asserting that its intrinsic worth is a mere $20 per coin.

在持续的市场动荡中，一度飙升的加密货币比特币经历了重大挫折，跌至两个多月来的最低点。尽管有些人可能将这种下降归因于短期市场波动，但两位著名经济学家认为，比特币的价值仍然被严重高估，并声称其内在价值仅为每枚 20 美元。

A Call for a Reality Check

呼吁进行现实检验

Richard Jackman of the London School of Economics and Savvas Savouri of Toscafund Asset Management have joined forces to present a compelling argument that Bitcoin's current market price is vastly inflated. They challenge the notion that Bitcoin has no inherent value, arguing instead that its worth stems from its utility as a medium of exchange.

伦敦经济学院的理查德·杰克曼和托斯卡基金资产管理公司的萨瓦斯·萨沃里联手提出了一个令人信服的论点，即比特币当前的市场价格大幅上涨。他们质疑比特币没有内在价值的观点，认为其价值源于其作为交换媒介的效用。

According to their analysis, Bitcoin's fundamental value can be estimated based on its demand as a means of payment. They calculate that Bitcoin's annual transaction volume of $1,200 million, combined with its supply of approximately 15 million coins, yields a fair value of just $20 per coin.

根据他们的分析，比特币的基本价值可以根据其作为支付手段的需求来估计。他们计算出，比特币的年交易量为 12 亿美元，加上大约 1500 万枚比特币的供应量，每枚比特币的公允价值仅为 20 美元。

The Caveat: A Conditional Surge

警告：有条件的激增

However, the economists acknowledge that Bitcoin could maintain its current value if it experienced a 1000-fold increase in its usage as a form of payment. This would require a profound shift in consumer behavior, entailing a widespread adoption of Bitcoin as a primary medium of exchange.

然而，经济学家承认，如果比特币作为一种支付方式的使用量增加 1000 倍，它就可以维持其当前价值。这需要消费者行为发生深刻的转变，从而需要广泛采用比特币作为主要交换媒介。

A Question of Faith and Competition

信仰与竞争的问题

Jackman and Savouri emphasize that such an exponential surge in Bitcoin's transaction volume is contingent upon two fundamental assumptions: the superiority of Bitcoin's technological efficiency and the absence of substantial competition. They caution that placing such faith in the cryptocurrency's dominance is a speculative gamble considering the emerging landscape of alternative digital currencies.

杰克曼和萨沃里强调，比特币交易量的指数级增长取决于两个基本假设：比特币技术效率的优越性和缺乏实质性竞争。他们警告说，考虑到替代数字货币的新兴格局，对加密货币的主导地位抱有这样的信心是一场投机性赌博。

Implications for Investors

对投资者的影响

The economists' assessment serves as a sobering reminder for investors who have poured money into Bitcoin at its inflated prices. Their analysis suggests that a significant downward correction may be inevitable unless Bitcoin's usage as a form of payment experiences a dramatic upswing.

经济学家的评估对那些以高涨的价格向比特币投入资金的投资者来说是一个清醒的提醒。他们的分析表明，除非比特币作为一种支付形式的使用经历急剧上升，否则大幅向下调整可能是不可避免的。

The Future of Crypto

加密货币的未来

While Bitcoin's current trajectory may be disheartening to ardent supporters, it is important to note that the cryptocurrency market remains nascent, with persistent volatility. The future of digital currencies is far from certain, and it remains to be seen whether Bitcoin can overcome its valuation hurdles and gain widespread adoption as a mainstream medium of exchange.

虽然比特币目前的走势可能令狂热的支持者感到沮丧，但值得注意的是，加密货币市场仍处于新生阶段，波动性持续存在。数字货币的未来还远未确定，比特币能否克服其估值障碍并作为主流交易媒介获得广泛采用还有待观察。