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rth,Motley Fool 贡献者
Nvidia (NVDA) stock has been on a tear lately, and it's now one of the most valuable companies in the world. But don't forget about Bitcoin (BTC), which has just as much -- and possibly more -- future upside potential than Nvidia.
英伟达(NVDA)的股票最近一直在上涨,它现在是世界上最有价值的公司之一。但不要忘记比特币(BTC),它的未来上涨潜力与英伟达一样大,甚至可能更大。
And, while it might seem counterintuitive, an investment in Bitcoin may actually be less risky than many people think.
而且,虽然这似乎违反直觉,但投资比特币实际上可能比许多人想象的风险要小。
Here's why I think Bitcoin could be a better buy than Nvidia over the next five years.
这就是为什么我认为未来五年比特币可能比英伟达更值得购买的原因。
Impressive gains, but what about the future?
成绩斐然,但未来呢?
Nvidia has outperformed Bitcoin this year, and it's not even close. In 2024, Nvidia is up about 130%, while Bitcoin is up only 40%. Moreover, Nvidia has outperformed Bitcoin during the past 12 months, 18 months, and 24 months. Over the past two years, Nvidia is up 764%, compared to just 209% for Bitcoin.
英伟达今年的表现超过了比特币,而且还差得远。 2024 年,英伟达上涨约 130%,而比特币仅上涨 40%。此外,Nvidia 在过去 12 个月、18 个月和 24 个月的表现都优于比特币。过去两年,英伟达的股价上涨了 764%,而比特币的涨幅仅为 209%。
So it's time to forget about Bitcoin and go all-in on Nvidia, right?
所以是时候忘记比特币并全力投入 Nvidia 了,对吗?
Wrong. And that's because stocks are not valued based on how they've performed in the past, but rather how they are going to perform in the future. And this is where the upside potential of Bitcoin is so impressive. Quite simply, the further you extend your price forecast into the future, the better Bitcoin looks.
错误的。这是因为股票的估值不是基于它们过去的表现,而是基于它们未来的表现。这就是比特币的上行潜力如此令人印象深刻的地方。很简单,你将价格预测延伸得越远,比特币看起来就越好。
For example, investment firm Bernstein thinks Bitcoin could more than triple in price to hit $200,000 by the end of 2025. A growing number of Silicon Valley tech leaders think Bitcoin could hit a price of $1 million within the next few years, and Cathie Wood of Ark Invest thinks that Bitcoin could hit a price of $3.8 million by 2030.
例如,投资公司 Bernstein 认为,到 2025 年底,比特币的价格可能会上涨两倍以上,达到 20 万美元。越来越多的硅谷科技领袖认为,比特币的价格可能在未来几年内达到 100 万美元,而 Cathie Wood 的Ark Invest 认为,到 2030 年,比特币的价格可能会达到 380 万美元。
But all of those price predictions pale in comparison to the one made by Michael Saylor, founder and executive chairman of MicroStrategy. He thinks Bitcoin could hit $13 million by the year 2045. He's convinced that Bitcoin is the future of money, and that it has the potential to replace the U.S. dollar. You might not agree, but that's what creates markets.
但与 MicroStrategy 创始人兼执行主席 Michael Saylor 的预测相比,所有这些价格预测都显得苍白无力。他认为比特币到 2045 年可能会达到 1300 万美元。他坚信比特币是货币的未来,并且有潜力取代美元。你可能不同意,但这就是创造市场的原因。
Based on today's Bitcoin price of about $60,000, a price of $13 million represents a gain of more than 21,000%. Can you find any Wall Street analysts willing to make the same prediction for Nvidia?
按照今天约 6 万美元的比特币价格计算,1300 万美元的价格意味着超过 21,000% 的涨幅。你能找到愿意对英伟达做出同样预测的华尔街分析师吗?
A surprising revelation about risk
关于风险的惊人启示
Of course, Bitcoin's enormous upside potential comes with significant risk. The U.S. government could ban Bitcoin, as some other governments have done. U.S. tax authorities could make it extremely burdensome to hold Bitcoin for the long haul, if they require investors to pay taxes on unrealized capital gains. And the Securities and Exchange Commission could act to classify Bitcoin as a security, creating an immediate existential risk.
当然,比特币巨大的上涨潜力也伴随着巨大的风险。美国政府可以像其他一些政府那样禁止比特币。如果美国税务机关要求投资者对未实现的资本利得纳税,那么长期持有比特币可能会变得极其负担。美国证券交易委员会可以采取行动将比特币归类为证券,从而造成直接的生存风险。
But it's not like Nvidia doesn't come with its own share of risks. The AI boom could turn out to be a huge speculative bubble, with some already comparing it to the dot-com bubble of the 2000s. And it's not like Nvidia doesn't have its share of competitive rivals, any of which could snatch market share away. Nvidia may never be able to satisfy Wall Street's insatiable appetite for growth.
但这并不是说英伟达就没有自己的风险。人工智能的繁荣可能最终会成为一个巨大的投机泡沫,有些人已经将其与 2000 年代的互联网泡沫进行比较。英伟达并不是没有竞争对手的份额,任何一个竞争对手都可能抢走市场份额。英伟达可能永远无法满足华尔街对增长永不满足的胃口。
Thus, a better way of comparing Bitcoin to Nvidia head-to-head likely involves some comparison of risk-adjusted returns. In other words, just how much risk are you taking on to get all that upside potential? In the best of all worlds, you would pick the investment that provides the highest upside possible while taking on as little risk as possible.
因此,将比特币与英伟达进行正面比较的更好方法可能是对风险调整后的回报进行一些比较。换句话说,为了获得所有的上升潜力,您要冒多大的风险?在最好的情况下,您会选择能够提供尽可能高的收益、同时承担尽可能小的风险的投资。
And this is where things get very interesting, because on a risk-adjusted basis, Bitcoin may not be as risky as you think. According to Fidelity Investments, at the start of 2024 Bitcoin had the highest Sharpe ratio (which measures risk-adjusted returns) of any asset class over the past five years. This means that, even though you are taking on a tremendous amount of cryptocurrency risk with Bitcoin, you are getting paid for it.
这就是事情变得非常有趣的地方,因为在风险调整的基础上,比特币可能没有你想象的那么有风险。据富达投资 (Fidelity Investments) 称,到 2024 年初,比特币的夏普比率(衡量风险调整后的回报率)是过去五年来所有资产类别中最高的。这意味着,即使您使用比特币承担巨大的加密货币风险,您也会因此获得报酬。
Bitcoin vs. Nvidia: Which is the better buy?
比特币 vs. Nvidia:哪个更好?
If forced to pick between Bitcoin and Nvidia, I would pick Bitcoin. It's hard to ignore the fact that it has been among the top-performing assets in the world for so long. And, thanks to the launch of the new spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in January, Bitcoin finally appears to be joining the mainstream. You no longer need to be a crypto enthusiast to buy Bitcoin; you can buy it as easily as you would your favorite tech stock.
如果被迫在比特币和 Nvidia 之间做出选择,我会选择比特币。很难忽视这样一个事实:它长期以来一直是世界上表现最好的资产之一。而且,由于一月份推出了新的现货比特币交易所交易基金(ETF),比特币似乎终于加入了主流。您不再需要成为加密货币爱好者才能购买比特币;您可以像购买您最喜欢的科技股票一样轻松购买它。
And, while the million-dollar price predictions for Bitcoin might strike many as being a bit outlandish, they certainly demonstrate just how much upside potential this cryptocurrency has. Over just about any time horizon, it has more upside potential than any
而且,虽然比特币百万美元的价格预测可能会让许多人觉得有点奇怪,但它们确实证明了这种加密货币具有多大的上涨潜力。几乎在任何时间范围内,它都比任何时期都具有更大的上行潜力
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