比特币 NUPL 表明牛市持续上涨，BTC 价格预测

自触及 108,364 美元以来，比特币 [BTC] 一直难以保持上涨势头。从那时起，加密货币就面临下行压力，触及低点

output: As Bitcoin [BTC] continues to trade within a narrow range, several on-chain metrics provided insight into the apex crypto’s price movements.

输出：随着比特币 [BTC] 继续在窄幅区间内交易，一些链上指标提供了对顶级加密货币价格走势的洞察。

After hitting a low of $92,118, BTC recovered slightly to trade at $96,298 at the time of writing, as per CoinGecko. This indicated a 2.44% decrease on daily charts.

据 CoinGecko 称，在触及 92,118 美元的低点后，BTC 略有回升，截至撰写本文时交易价格为 96,298 美元。这表明日线图上下跌了 2.44%。

However, Cryptoquant analysts seemed optimistic about BTC’s future price movements. According to their analysis, BTC might rally to hit prices ranging from $130k to $160k.

然而，Cryptoquant 分析师似乎对 BTC 未来的价格走势持乐观态度。根据他们的分析，BTC 的价格可能会上涨至 13 万美元至 16 万美元之间。

Cryptoquant analyst Baro Virtual highlighted in his analysis that the NUPL indicated that BTC was in its final stages of a bull rally, with a target range of $130k-$160k.

Cryptoquant 分析师 Baro Virtual 在他的分析中强调，NUPL 表明 BTC 正处于牛市反弹的最后阶段，目标范围为 13 万美元至 16 万美元。

This meant that Bitcoin was nearing the top of its bullish cycle, where prices historically saw a massive rally before peaking.

这意味着比特币正接近其看涨周期的顶部，历史上价格在见顶之前会出现大幅上涨。

In this phase, market participants were highly profitable, and speculative buying drove prices up. According to him, the unrealized profit/loss index formed a cup and handle pattern which was expected to push BTC into the target range.

这一阶段，市场参与者利润丰厚，投机性买盘推高价格。他表示，未实现盈亏指数形成杯柄形态，预计将推动 BTC 进入目标区间。

When NUPL forms a cup and handle pattern, it implied that unrealized profits were consolidating with a slight dip suggesting a temporary slowdown in market sentiment before a strong continuation upward.

当 NUPL 形成杯柄形态时，这意味着未实现利润正在盘整，小幅下跌表明市场情绪在强劲持续上涨之前暂时放缓。

Moreover, Bitcoin made a successful breakout through the NUPL index’s 365-day MA signaling a potential uptrend in both the medium and long term.

此外，比特币成功突破了 NUPL 指数的 365 天均线，预示着中长期潜在的上升趋势。

What BTC charts depicted

BTC 图表描绘了什么

While BTC struggled to maintain an upward momentum, long-term prospects were still in favor of a strong upswing.

尽管BTC难以维持上涨势头，但长期前景仍然有利于强劲上涨。

For instance, Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio dropped over the past week to 2.42. Historically, an MVRV ratio between 2-3 is considered bullish and neutral.

例如，比特币的 MVRV 比率在过去一周下降至 2.42。从历史上看，MVRV 比率在 2-3 之间被认为是看涨和中性的。

Thus, the market was not overheated and buyers found a reasonable balance between risk and reward. This indicated market stabilization and potential price recovery.

因此，市场并未过热，买家在风险和回报之间找到了合理的平衡。这表明市场稳定和价格潜在回升。

Furthermore, Bitcoin’s SOPR declined but it stabilized at 1.01. When SOPR stabilizes around 1, it suggested that BTC tested a break-even point where the market was neutral.

此外，比特币的SOPR有所下降，但稳定在1.01。当 SOPR 稳定在 1 左右时，表明 BTC 测试了市场中性的盈亏平衡点。

Thus, long-term holders saw it as an opportunity to accumulate BTC sold by weaker hands.

因此，长期持有者将其视为积累弱势手卖出的比特币的机会。

Finally, Bitcoin’s NVT Golden Cross declined to 0.98 indicating a bullish divergence where increasing transaction activity reflected growing confidence in the network activity.

最后，比特币的 NVT Golden Cross 跌至 0.98，表明看涨背离，交易活动的增加反映了对网络活动信心的增强。

Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Prediction 2024-25

阅读比特币 [BTC] 2024-25 价格预测

In essence, even though BTC retraced over the past week, long-term fundamentals signaled a potential recovery after the correction.

从本质上讲，尽管比特币在过去一周出现回调，但长期基本面表明回调后可能会出现复苏。

Hence, these conditions pointed towards a potential trend reversal. If it occurs, BTC could reclaim the $99,790 resistance. However, if bears strengthen, Bitcoin would drop to $95,600.

因此，这些条件预示着潜在的趋势逆转。如果发生这种情况，BTC 可能会重回 99,790 美元的阻力位。然而，如果空头加强，比特币将跌至 95,600 美元。

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