比特币接近反转信号，芝商所期货出现“黄昏之星”模式

NewsBTC 研究主管托尼·“公牛”·塞维里诺 (Tony “The Bull” Severino) 在比特币 CME 期货月度图表上发现了“晚星”烛台模式，表明潜在的趋势逆转。虽然该模式表明比特币可能会下跌，但塞韦里诺警告说，比特币在逆转之前仍可能达到更高的高点。分析师预测，未来两个季度内将达到峰值，可能是在 2024 年第三季度中后期。

Bitcoin Faces Potential Trend Reversal, Evening Star Pattern Emerges on CME Futures Chart

比特币面临潜在趋势逆转，芝商所期货图表出现晚星模式

Tony "The Bull" Severino, Head of Research at NewsBTC and a certified CME, has identified an "Evening Star" candlestick pattern on the monthly chart of the Bitcoin CME futures. This formation, which traditionally indicates a potential trend reversal, is forming at a critical point for Bitcoin.

NewsBTC 研究主管兼 CME 认证托尼·“公牛”托尼·塞韦里诺 (Tony “The Bull” Severino) 在比特币 CME 期货月度图表上发现了“晚星”烛台模式。这种形态传统上预示着潜在的趋势逆转，目前正在比特币的关键点上形成。

The Evening Star pattern consists of three candlesticks: a large bullish candle, followed by a small bearish candle, and finally a large bearish candle that closes below the midpoint of the first bullish candle. This pattern suggests that the upward momentum of the trend is waning and that a reversal could be imminent.

晚星形态由三个烛台组成：一根大看涨蜡烛，随后是一根小看跌蜡烛，最后是一根收盘价低于第一根看涨蜡烛中点的大看跌蜡烛。这种模式表明趋势的上升势头正在减弱，逆转可能即将来临。

While the Evening Star pattern is present on the Bitcoin CME futures chart, it is not visible on the spot BTCUSD chart on ordinary charts from exchanges such as Binance or Coinbase. This lack of uniformity across charts has raised questions about the reliability of the signal.

虽然晚星模式出现在比特币 CME 期货图表上，但在 Binance 或 Coinbase 等交易所的普通图表上的现货 BTCUSD 图表上不可见。图表之间缺乏统一性引发了人们对信号可靠性的质疑。

Despite the potential for a reversal, Severino cautions that Bitcoin could still reach higher highs in the coming months before peaking and reversing. However, predicting the exact timing of these events is a challenge.

尽管存在逆转的可能性，但塞韦里诺警告说，比特币在未来几个月内仍可能达到更高的高点，然后再见顶并逆转。然而，预测这些事件的确切时间是一个挑战。

Based on candlestick analysis, Severino predicts that Bitcoin could peak within the next two quarters, possibly in mid- or late Q3 2024.

根据烛台分析，Severino 预测比特币可能在未来两个季度内达到顶峰，可能是在 2024 年第三季度中后期。

Technical Analysis: BTC Faces Resistance, Evening Star Formation Validity Uncertain

技术分析：BTC面临阻力，黄昏之星形成的有效性不确定

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading near all-time highs. Following a cool-off last week, the coin bounced back strongly over the weekend, erasing some losses. However, Bitcoin remains technically within a bearish breakout formation, trading below the 20-day moving average on the daily chart.

截至撰写本文时，比特币的交易价格接近历史高点。继上周的冷静之后，该代币在周末强劲反弹，抹去了一些损失。然而，从技术上讲，比特币仍处于看跌突破形态内，日线图上交易价格低于 20 日移动均线。

For the uptrend to continue and extend from the formation in the daily chart, BTC must push above $70,000. The validity of this uptrend will be solid if the leg up is accompanied by expanding trading volume.

为了让上升趋势继续并从日线图上的形态延伸出来，比特币必须突破 70,000 美元。如果上涨伴随着交易量的扩大，那么这一上涨趋势的有效性将是稳固的。

Severino also notes that the Evening Star formation will be invalidated if Bitcoin closes strongly above $74,000 by the end of the month. Bitcoin prices peaked at around $73,800 in early March, buoyed by expanding demand, especially from spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Severino 还指出，如果比特币在本月底收盘强劲高于 74,000 美元，晚星形态将失效。受需求扩大，尤其是现货比特币 ETF 的推动，比特币价格在 3 月初达到 73,800 美元左右的峰值。

Fundamental Factors: Spot Bitcoin ETF Outflows Pose Challenges

基本面因素：现货比特币ETF资金流出构成挑战

Despite the potential for a continued rally, some fundamental factors pose challenges to Bitcoin's upward momentum. Notably, outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), particularly from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), are rising. Rumors suggest that bankrupt crypto lender Genesis could be liquidating its GBTC holdings, adding further selling pressure to the market.

尽管有持续上涨的潜力，但一些基本面因素对比特币的上涨势头构成了挑战。值得注意的是，现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF），特别是灰度比特币信托（GBTC）的资金流出正在增加。有传言称，破产的加密货币贷款机构 Genesis 可能会清算其持有的 GBTC，这进一步加剧了市场的抛售压力。

By March 22, spot Bitcoin ETF issuers had experienced outflows for five straight days, according to Lookonchain data. Nonetheless, as GBTC posts outflows, BlackRock's IBIT continues attracting more clients seeking BTC exposure.

Lookonchain 数据显示，截至 3 月 22 日，现货比特币 ETF 发行人已连续五天出现资金流出。尽管如此，随着 GBTC 资金流出，贝莱德的 IBIT 继续吸引更多寻求 BTC 投资的客户。

The presence of the Evening Star pattern on the Bitcoin CME futures chart raises concerns about the potential for a trend reversal. However, the lack of uniformity across charts and the uncertainty surrounding the timing of any reversal make it difficult to draw definitive conclusions. Fundamental factors, such as spot Bitcoin ETF outflows, also pose challenges to Bitcoin's upward momentum.

芝加哥商品交易所 (CME) 比特币期货图表上出现的晚星形态引发了人们对趋势逆转可能性的担忧。然而，由于图表之间缺乏统一性以及任何反转时间的不确定性，使得很难得出明确的结论。现货比特币ETF流出等基本面因素也对比特币的上行势头构成挑战。