比特幣接近反轉訊號，芝商所期貨出現「黃昏之星」模式

NewsBTC 研究主管 Tony “The Bull” Severino 在比特幣 CME 期貨月度圖表上發現了「晚星」燭台模式，顯示潛在的趨勢逆轉。雖然該模式表明比特幣可能會下跌，但塞維裡諾警告說，比特幣在逆轉之前仍可能達到更高的高點。分析師預測，未來兩個季度內將達到峰值，可能是在 2024 年第三季中後期。

Bitcoin Faces Potential Trend Reversal, Evening Star Pattern Emerges on CME Futures Chart

比特幣面臨潛在趨勢逆轉，芝商所期貨圖表出現晚星模式

Tony "The Bull" Severino, Head of Research at NewsBTC and a certified CME, has identified an "Evening Star" candlestick pattern on the monthly chart of the Bitcoin CME futures. This formation, which traditionally indicates a potential trend reversal, is forming at a critical point for Bitcoin.

NewsBTC 研究主管兼 CME 認證托尼·“公牛”托尼·塞韋裡諾 (Tony “The Bull” Severino) 在比特幣 CME 期貨月度圖表上發現了“晚星”燭台模式。這種形態傳統上預示著潛在的趨勢逆轉，目前正在比特幣的關鍵點上形成。

The Evening Star pattern consists of three candlesticks: a large bullish candle, followed by a small bearish candle, and finally a large bearish candle that closes below the midpoint of the first bullish candle. This pattern suggests that the upward momentum of the trend is waning and that a reversal could be imminent.

晚星形態由三個燭台組成：一根大看漲蠟燭，接著是一根小看跌蠟燭，最後是一根收盤價低於第一根看漲蠟燭中點的大看跌蠟燭。這種模式顯示趨勢的上升勢頭正在減弱，逆轉可能即將來臨。

While the Evening Star pattern is present on the Bitcoin CME futures chart, it is not visible on the spot BTCUSD chart on ordinary charts from exchanges such as Binance or Coinbase. This lack of uniformity across charts has raised questions about the reliability of the signal.

雖然晚星模式出現在比特幣 CME 期貨圖表上，但在 Binance 或 Coinbase 等交易所的普通圖表上的現貨 BTCUSD 圖表上不可見。圖表之間缺乏統一性引發了人們對訊號可靠性的質疑。

Despite the potential for a reversal, Severino cautions that Bitcoin could still reach higher highs in the coming months before peaking and reversing. However, predicting the exact timing of these events is a challenge.

儘管存在逆轉的可能性，但塞維裡諾警告說，比特幣在未來幾個月內仍可能達到更高的高點，然後再見頂部並逆轉。然而，預測這些事件的確切時間是一個挑戰。

Based on candlestick analysis, Severino predicts that Bitcoin could peak within the next two quarters, possibly in mid- or late Q3 2024.

根據燭台分析，Severino 預測比特幣可能在未來兩個季度內達到頂峰，可能是在 2024 年第三季中後期。

Technical Analysis: BTC Faces Resistance, Evening Star Formation Validity Uncertain

技術分析：BTC面臨阻力，黃昏之星形成的有效性不確定

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading near all-time highs. Following a cool-off last week, the coin bounced back strongly over the weekend, erasing some losses. However, Bitcoin remains technically within a bearish breakout formation, trading below the 20-day moving average on the daily chart.

截至撰寫本文時，比特幣的交易價格接近歷史高點。繼上週的冷靜之後，代幣在周末強勁反彈，抹去了一些損失。然而，從技術上講，比特幣仍處於看跌突破形態內，日線圖上交易價格低於 20 日移動均線。

For the uptrend to continue and extend from the formation in the daily chart, BTC must push above $70,000. The validity of this uptrend will be solid if the leg up is accompanied by expanding trading volume.

為了讓上升趨勢繼續並從日線圖上的形態延伸出來，比特幣必須突破 70,000 美元。如果上漲伴隨著交易量的擴大，那麼這一上漲趨勢的有效性將是穩固的。

Severino also notes that the Evening Star formation will be invalidated if Bitcoin closes strongly above $74,000 by the end of the month. Bitcoin prices peaked at around $73,800 in early March, buoyed by expanding demand, especially from spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Severino 也指出，如果比特幣在本月底收盤強勁高於 74,000 美元，晚星形態將失效。受需求擴大，尤其是現貨比特幣 ETF 的推動，比特幣價格在 3 月初達到 73,800 美元左右的峰值。

Fundamental Factors: Spot Bitcoin ETF Outflows Pose Challenges

基本面因素：現貨比特幣ETF資金流出構成挑戰

Despite the potential for a continued rally, some fundamental factors pose challenges to Bitcoin's upward momentum. Notably, outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), particularly from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), are rising. Rumors suggest that bankrupt crypto lender Genesis could be liquidating its GBTC holdings, adding further selling pressure to the market.

儘管有持續上漲的潛力，但一些基本面因素對比特幣的上漲勢頭構成了挑戰。值得注意的是，現貨比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF），特別是灰階比特幣信託（GBTC）的資金流出正在增加。有傳言稱，破產的加密貨幣貸款機構 Genesis 可能會清算其持有的 GBTC，這進一步加劇了市場的拋售壓力。

By March 22, spot Bitcoin ETF issuers had experienced outflows for five straight days, according to Lookonchain data. Nonetheless, as GBTC posts outflows, BlackRock's IBIT continues attracting more clients seeking BTC exposure.

Lookonchain 數據顯示，截至 3 月 22 日，現貨比特幣 ETF 發行人已連續五天出現資金流出。儘管如此，隨著 GBTC 資金流出，貝萊德的 IBIT 繼續吸引更多尋求 BTC 投資的客戶。

The presence of the Evening Star pattern on the Bitcoin CME futures chart raises concerns about the potential for a trend reversal. However, the lack of uniformity across charts and the uncertainty surrounding the timing of any reversal make it difficult to draw definitive conclusions. Fundamental factors, such as spot Bitcoin ETF outflows, also pose challenges to Bitcoin's upward momentum.

芝加哥商品交易所 (CME) 比特幣期貨圖表上出現的晚星形態引發了人們對趨勢逆轉可能性的擔憂。然而，由於圖表之間缺乏統一性以及任何反轉時間的不確定性，使得很難得出明確的結論。現貨比特幣ETF流出等基本面因素也對比特幣的上行動能構成挑戰。