比特币 MVRV 比率可能暗示 BTC 在当前周期中的位置

在 X 上的一篇新帖子中，CryptoQuant 创始人兼首席执行官 Ki Young Ju 分享了一张图表，展示了比特币 MVRV 比率的过去模式。

Bitcoin (BTC) price has retraced a significant portion of its recent rally, now trading around $95,700 on Bitstamp. The world’s largest cryptocurrency began facing selling pressure near $104,000 on December 24.

比特币 (BTC) 价格已回吐近期涨幅的很大一部分，目前 Bitstamp 上的交易价格约为 95,700 美元。全球最大的加密货币于 12 月 24 日开始面临接近 104,000 美元的抛售压力。

After rallying by over 40% in the past two weeks, BTC seemed to be taking a breather from the bullish momentum. As the coin consolidated around $90,000, traders anticipated a potential breakout either to the upside or downside.

在过去两周上涨超过 40% 后，BTC 的看涨势头似乎有所喘息。随着代币在 90,000 美元附近盘整，交易员预计可能会向上或向下突破。

Bitcoin price retraced after rallying by over 40% in the past two weeks.

比特币价格在过去两周上涨超过 40% 后出现回调。

Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Hints At More BTC Bull Run Left?

比特币 MVRV 比率暗示 BTC 牛市还剩更多？

One metric that has been used historically to gauge whether a top might be in for Bitcoin is the MVRV Ratio. This indicator, in essence, tracks how the value held by BTC investors (i.e., the market cap) compares to the value they initially put into the asset (i.e., the realized cap).

历史上用来衡量比特币是否触顶的一个指标是 MVRV 比率。该指标本质上是跟踪 BTC 投资者持有的价值（即市值）与他们最初投入资产的价值（即已实现的上限）的比较。

When the ratio is above 1, it can be assumed that the average investor is in a state of profit, and when it’s below the mark, it implies a dominance of loss in the market.

当该比率高于1时，可以认为一般投资者处于盈利状态，而当该比率低于1时，则意味着市场处于亏损状态。

One version of the MVRV Ratio, which is not the common one, is the “True MVRV.” This variant accounts for the data only for the coins that were involved in any sort of transaction activity during the past seven years.

MVRV 比率的一种版本（不常见）是“真实 MVRV”。此变体仅考虑过去七年中参与任何类型交易活动的代币的数据。

Coins that are older than seven years can be assumed to be lost forever, either due to being forgotten or having their wallet keys misplaced. Thus, the True MVRP, which excludes these coins that are unlikely to ever return back into circulation, can provide a more accurate picture of the sector than the normal version of the metric.

超过七年的硬币可以被认为永远丢失，要么是由于遗忘，要么是钱包钥匙放错地方。因此，真正的 MVRP 排除了这些不太可能重新回到流通中的代币，可以比标准版本的指标更准确地描述该行业。

Now, here’s a chart that shows the trend in this Bitcoin indicator throughout the history of the cryptocurrency:

现在，下面的图表显示了该比特币指标在整个加密货币历史中的趋势：

Bitcoin True MVRV has climbed to relatively high levels this bull run, showing that the average holder is sitting on substantial profits. Historically, the higher the holder gains get, the more likely they become to participate in a mass selloff in order to book profits. Thus, whenever the MVRP Ratio rises high, a top can become probable for BTC.

比特币 True MVRV 在本次牛市中已攀升至相对较高的水平，表明普通持有者正坐享可观的利润。从历史上看，持有者收益越高，他们就越有可能参与大规模抛售以获取利润。因此，每当 MVRP 比率上升时，BTC 就有可能触顶。

From the chart, we can see that the tops during the past cycles occurred when the indicator crossed a particular line. So far, the metric has not come close to retesting this level in the latest bull cycle.

从图表中，我们可以看到过去周期中的顶部发生在指标穿过特定线时。到目前为止，该指标尚未接近在最新牛市周期中重新测试该水平。

According to Ki Young Ju, the founder of CryptoQuant, the reason the market cap has not overheated relative to the realized cap yet is that there is still $7 billion in capital inflows entering the Bitcoin market each week.

CryptoQuant 创始人 Ki Young Ju 表示，相对于已实现的市值，市值尚未过热的原因是每周仍有 70 亿美元的资本流入比特币市场。

If the current cycle is going to show anything similar to the past cycles, then the True MVRV being high, but not extremely high, could potentially suggest more room left in the current bull run for BTC.

如果当前周期将显示与过去周期类似的情况，那么真实 MVRV 较高，但不是极高，可能表明 BTC 当前的牛市还有更多空间。