比特幣 MVRV 比率可能暗示 BTC 在當前週期中的位置

在 X 上的一篇新帖子中，CryptoQuant 創始人兼首席執行官 Ki Young Ju 分享了一張圖表，展示了比特幣 MVRV 比率的過去模式。

Bitcoin (BTC) price has retraced a significant portion of its recent rally, now trading around $95,700 on Bitstamp. The world’s largest cryptocurrency began facing selling pressure near $104,000 on December 24.

比特幣 (BTC) 價格已回吐近期漲幅的很大一部分，目前 Bitstamp 上的交易價格約為 95,700 美元。全球最大的加密貨幣於 12 月 24 日開始面臨接近 104,000 美元的拋售壓力。

After rallying by over 40% in the past two weeks, BTC seemed to be taking a breather from the bullish momentum. As the coin consolidated around $90,000, traders anticipated a potential breakout either to the upside or downside.

在過去兩週上漲超過 40% 後，BTC 的看漲勢頭似乎有所喘息。隨著代幣在 90,000 美元附近盤整，交易員預計可能會向上或向下突破。

Bitcoin price retraced after rallying by over 40% in the past two weeks.

比特幣價格在過去兩週上漲超過 40% 後出現回檔。

Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Hints At More BTC Bull Run Left?

比特幣 MVRV 比率暗示 BTC 牛市還剩更多？

One metric that has been used historically to gauge whether a top might be in for Bitcoin is the MVRV Ratio. This indicator, in essence, tracks how the value held by BTC investors (i.e., the market cap) compares to the value they initially put into the asset (i.e., the realized cap).

歷史上用來衡量比特幣是否觸頂的一個指標是 MVRV 比率。該指標本質上是追蹤 BTC 投資者持有的價值（即市值）與他們最初投入資產的價值（即已實現的上限）的比較。

When the ratio is above 1, it can be assumed that the average investor is in a state of profit, and when it’s below the mark, it implies a dominance of loss in the market.

當該比率高於1時，可以認為一般投資者處於盈利狀態，而當該比率低於1時，則表示市場處於虧損狀態。

One version of the MVRV Ratio, which is not the common one, is the “True MVRV.” This variant accounts for the data only for the coins that were involved in any sort of transaction activity during the past seven years.

MVRV 比率的一種版本（不常見）是「真實 MVRV」。此變體僅考慮過去七年中參與任何類型交易活動的代幣的數據。

Coins that are older than seven years can be assumed to be lost forever, either due to being forgotten or having their wallet keys misplaced. Thus, the True MVRP, which excludes these coins that are unlikely to ever return back into circulation, can provide a more accurate picture of the sector than the normal version of the metric.

超過七年的硬幣可以被認為永遠丟失，要么是由於遺忘，要么是錢包鑰匙放錯地方。因此，真正的 MVRP 排除了這些不太可能返回流通的代幣，可以比標準版本的指標更準確地描述該行業。

Now, here’s a chart that shows the trend in this Bitcoin indicator throughout the history of the cryptocurrency:

現在，下面的圖表顯示了該比特幣指標在整個加密貨幣歷史中的趨勢：

Bitcoin True MVRV has climbed to relatively high levels this bull run, showing that the average holder is sitting on substantial profits. Historically, the higher the holder gains get, the more likely they become to participate in a mass selloff in order to book profits. Thus, whenever the MVRP Ratio rises high, a top can become probable for BTC.

比特幣 True MVRV 在本次多頭市場中已攀升至相對較高的水平，顯示一般持有者正坐享可觀的利潤。從歷史上看，持有者收益越高，他們就越有可能參與大規模拋售以獲取利潤。因此，每當 MVRP 比率上升時，BTC 就有可能觸頂。

From the chart, we can see that the tops during the past cycles occurred when the indicator crossed a particular line. So far, the metric has not come close to retesting this level in the latest bull cycle.

從圖表中，我們可以看到過去週期中的頂部發生在指標穿過特定線時。到目前為止，該指標尚未接近在最新牛市週期中重新測試該水準。

According to Ki Young Ju, the founder of CryptoQuant, the reason the market cap has not overheated relative to the realized cap yet is that there is still $7 billion in capital inflows entering the Bitcoin market each week.

CryptoQuant 創辦人 Ki Young Ju 表示，相對於已實現的市值，市值尚未過熱的原因是每週仍有 70 億美元的資本流入比特幣市場。

If the current cycle is going to show anything similar to the past cycles, then the True MVRV being high, but not extremely high, could potentially suggest more room left in the current bull run for BTC.

如果當前週期將顯示與過去週期類似的情況，那麼真實 MVRV 較高，但不是極高，可能表明 BTC 目前的多頭市場還有更多空間。