Matrixport 报告称，比特币 2025 年牛市面临多重风险

Matrixport 的一份新报告显示，比特币 (BTC) 2025 年牛市面临多种风险。

A new report from Matrixport has highlighted several risks that could impact Bitcoin’s 2025 bull market, ranging from BlackRock’s concerns about the 21 million supply cap to Google’s advances in quantum computing.

Matrixport 的一份新报告强调了可能影响比特币 2025 年牛市的几个风险，从贝莱德对 2100 万供应上限的担忧到谷歌在量子计算方面的进步。

The report comes as Bitcoin faces pressure on multiple fronts, with leading analysts like Peter Brandt and Tone Vays identifying technical patterns that suggest a potential drop to the $70,000-$73,000 range. These technical warnings align with Matrixport’s broader analysis of macro risks, including changing Federal Reserve policy expectations and potential impacts from Trump’s upcoming presidency.

该报告发布之际，比特币面临多方面压力，Peter Brandt 和 Tone Vays 等领先分析师认为，技术模式表明比特币可能跌至 70,000 美元至 73,000 美元区间。这些技术警告与 Matrixport 对宏观风险的更广泛分析相一致，包括美联储政策预期的变化以及特朗普即将就任总统的潜在影响。

BlackRock’s concerns and the accompanying threats

贝莱德的担忧以及随之而来的威胁

One of the key highlights in the report is BlackRock’s questioning of the guarantee surrounding Bitcoin’s 21 million supply cap. As one of the largest asset managers now involved in Bitcoin through ETFs, BlackRock’s statement carries significant weight in market discussions.

报告的一大亮点是贝莱德对比特币 2100 万供应上限的保证提出质疑。作为目前通过 ETF 涉足比特币的最大资产管理公司之一，贝莱德的声明在市场讨论中具有重要影响力。

Another major development mentioned in the report is Google’s announcement of its “Willow” quantum chip, which features 105 qubits and has brought the threat of quantum computing back into focus. While current quantum technology cannot break Bitcoin’s cryptographic defenses, the pace of advancement raises questions about the long-term security of the network.

报告中提到的另一项重大进展是谷歌宣布推出“Willow”量子芯片，该芯片具有 105 个量子位，使量子计算的威胁重新成为人们关注的焦点。虽然当前的量子技术无法突破比特币的加密防御，但其进步速度引发了人们对网络长期安全性的质疑。

However, the report also notes that quantum computing is still in its early stages and lacks the scale needed to pose an immediate threat to Bitcoin’s security model. Additionally, Matrixport’s inflation model indicates that these concerns may be overstated, potentially allowing the Fed to maintain an accommodative policy through 2025.

然而，报告还指出，量子计算仍处于早期阶段，缺乏对比特币安全模型构成直接威胁所需的规模。此外，Matrixport 的通胀模型表明这些担忧可能被夸大了，这可能会让美联储在 2025 年之前维持宽松政策。

Technical analysis points to deeper correction

技术分析指出更深层次的调整

Three prominent analysts have identified $95,000 as a critical price level for Bitcoin, with Tone Vays warning that trading below this threshold opens the path for a correction to $73,000. This analysis aligns with Peter Brandt’s identification of a “broadening triangle” pattern, which projects a potential drop to $70,000.

三位著名分析师已将 95,000 美元确定为比特币的关键价格水平，Tone Vays 警告称，低于该阈值的交易可能会导致比特币价格回调至 73,000 美元。该分析与 Peter Brandt 对“扩大三角形”模式的识别一致，该模式预计价格可能下跌至 70,000 美元。

On-chain data supports these technical warnings, as price analysis shows limited wallet support between current levels and $70,085, creating what traders call “open air” below $93,806.

链上数据支持了这些技术警告，因为价格分析显示当前水平和 70,085 美元之间的钱包支撑有限，从而形成交易员所说的“露天”低于 93,806 美元的情况。

On the other hand, @fundstrat maintains that #Bitcoin $BTC will likely reach $250,000 in 2025, but first, according to @MarkNewtonCMT, a downswing to $60,000 is on the horizon. pic.twitter.com/44rG8EVUV4

另一方面，@fundstrat 认为 #Bitcoin $BTC 到 2025 年可能会达到 250,000 美元，但首先，根据 @MarkNewtonCMT 的说法，下跌至 60,000 美元即将到来。 pic.twitter.com/44rG8EVUV4

— Ali (@ali_charts) December 26, 2024

— 阿里 (@ali_charts) 2024 年 12 月 26 日

This gap in strong support levels means Bitcoin could move quickly through this range if selling pressure increases. The concentration of predictions around the $70,000-$73,000 range from different analytical approaches adds weight to this target zone.

强大支撑位的差距意味着，如果抛售压力增加，比特币可能会迅速突破该区间。不同分析方法的预测集中在 70,000 美元至 73,000 美元范围内，增加了该目标区域的权重。

Historical price patterns from previous bull markets help explain why these support levels matter. Past corrections during bull markets have often found support at previous resistance levels, making the $70,000 area particularly important as it marked Bitcoin’s previous all-time high before the recent breakout. This price zone also coincides with institutional entry points from late 2024, suggesting potential buying interest at these levels.

之前牛市的历史价格模式有助于解释为什么这些支撑位很重要。过去牛市期间的调整往往会在之前的阻力位找到支撑，这使得 70,000 美元区域尤为重要，因为它标志着比特币在最近突破之前的历史新高。该价格区域也与 2024 年末的机构入场点重合，表明在这些水平上存在潜在的购买兴趣。

Political and monetary policy risks

政治和货币政策风险

According to Matrixport, the Fed’s monetary policy outlook faces new pressures as Trump’s presidency approaches. The FOMC may adopt a more hawkish stance in response to potential fiscal policies under Trump, which could create uncertainty for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. This shift marks a change from December 2021, when the move away from near-zero interest rates began a new policy cycle.

Matrixport表示，随着特朗普就任总统的临近，美联储的货币政策前景面临新的压力。联邦公开市场委员会可能会采取更强硬的立场来应对特朗普领导下的潜在财政政策，这可能会给比特币和更广泛的加密市场带来不确定性。这一转变标志着自 2021 年 12 月以来的变化，当时接近零利率的转变开始了新的政策周期。

The regulatory situation has also played a key role in Bitcoin bull markets at key turning points. Past examples include China’s PBoC banning banks from crypto dealings in January 2017, the SEC taking action against unregistered fundraising in December 2017, and China restricting crypto mining in May 2021.

监管形势也在比特币牛市的关键转折点发挥了关键作用。过去的例子包括中国央行于 2017 年 1 月禁止银行进行加密货币交易，美国证券交易委员会于 2017 年 12 月对未经注册的筹款采取行动，以及中国于 2021 年 5 月限制加密货币挖矿。

While many regulatory concerns have eased with the SEC’s approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs, new policy challenges could arise. Looking ahead to 2025, the interaction between Trump’s fiscal policies and Fed responses may determine Bitcoin’s price direction. Matrixport’s inflation model, which predicted the 2023 bull market when others forecasted recession, suggests inflation should not pose major problems next year.

尽管随着美国证券交易委员会批准比特币现货 ETF，许多监管担忧有所缓解，但可能会出现新的政策挑战。展望2025年，特朗普的财政政策和美联储的反应之间的相互作用可能会决定比特币的价格走向。 Matrixport 的通胀模型在其他人预测经济衰退时预测了 2023 年牛市，表明通胀明年不会构成重大问题。

However, the combination of new fiscal policies, changing Fed responses, and evolving regulatory frameworks creates a complex environment for Bitcoin’s price development through 2025.

然而，新的财政政策、美联储不断变化的应对措施以及不断变化的监管框架相结合，为 2025 年比特币的价格发展创造了一个复杂的环境。