Matrixport 報告稱，比特幣 2025 年多頭市場面臨多重風險

Matrixport 的一份新報告顯示，比特幣 (BTC) 2025 年多頭市場面臨多種風險。

A new report from Matrixport has highlighted several risks that could impact Bitcoin’s 2025 bull market, ranging from BlackRock’s concerns about the 21 million supply cap to Google’s advances in quantum computing.

Matrixport 的一份新報告強調了可能影響比特幣 2025 年牛市的幾個風險，從貝萊德對 2,100 萬供應上限的擔憂到谷歌在量子計算方面的進步。

The report comes as Bitcoin faces pressure on multiple fronts, with leading analysts like Peter Brandt and Tone Vays identifying technical patterns that suggest a potential drop to the $70,000-$73,000 range. These technical warnings align with Matrixport’s broader analysis of macro risks, including changing Federal Reserve policy expectations and potential impacts from Trump’s upcoming presidency.

該報告發布之際，比特幣面臨多方面壓力，Peter Brandt 和 Tone Vays 等領先分析師認為，技術模式表明比特幣可能跌至 70,000 美元至 73,000 美元區間。這些技術警告與 Matrixport 對宏觀風險的更廣泛分析相一致，包括聯準會政策預期的變化以及川普即將就任總統的潛在影響。

BlackRock’s concerns and the accompanying threats

貝萊德的擔憂以及隨之而來的威脅

One of the key highlights in the report is BlackRock’s questioning of the guarantee surrounding Bitcoin’s 21 million supply cap. As one of the largest asset managers now involved in Bitcoin through ETFs, BlackRock’s statement carries significant weight in market discussions.

報告的一大亮點是貝萊德對比特幣 2,100 萬供應上限的保證提出質疑。作為目前透過 ETF 涉足比特幣的最大資產管理公司之一，貝萊德的聲明在市場討論中具有重要影響力。

Another major development mentioned in the report is Google’s announcement of its “Willow” quantum chip, which features 105 qubits and has brought the threat of quantum computing back into focus. While current quantum technology cannot break Bitcoin’s cryptographic defenses, the pace of advancement raises questions about the long-term security of the network.

報告中提到的另一項重大進展是Google宣布推出「Willow」量子晶片，該晶片具有 105 個量子位元，使量子運算的威脅重新成為人們關注的焦點。雖然目前的量子技術無法突破比特幣的加密防禦，但其進步速度引發了人們對網路長期安全性的質疑。

However, the report also notes that quantum computing is still in its early stages and lacks the scale needed to pose an immediate threat to Bitcoin’s security model. Additionally, Matrixport’s inflation model indicates that these concerns may be overstated, potentially allowing the Fed to maintain an accommodative policy through 2025.

然而，報告也指出，量子計算仍處於早期階段，缺乏對比特幣安全模型構成直接威脅所需的規模。此外，Matrixport 的通膨模型表明這些擔憂可能被誇大了，這可能會讓聯準會在 2025 年之前維持寬鬆政策。

Technical analysis points to deeper correction

技術分析指出更深層的調整

Three prominent analysts have identified $95,000 as a critical price level for Bitcoin, with Tone Vays warning that trading below this threshold opens the path for a correction to $73,000. This analysis aligns with Peter Brandt’s identification of a “broadening triangle” pattern, which projects a potential drop to $70,000.

三位著名分析師已將 95,000 美元確定為比特幣的關鍵價格水平，Tone Vays 警告稱，低於該門檻的交易可能會導致比特幣價格回調至 73,000 美元。該分析與 Peter Brandt 對「擴大三角形」模式的識別一致，該模式預計價格可能會下跌至 70,000 美元。

On-chain data supports these technical warnings, as price analysis shows limited wallet support between current levels and $70,085, creating what traders call “open air” below $93,806.

鏈上數據支持了這些技術警告，因為價格分析顯示當前水平和 70,085 美元之間的錢包支撐有限，從而形成交易員​​所說的「露天」低於 93,806 美元的情況。

On the other hand, @fundstrat maintains that #Bitcoin $BTC will likely reach $250,000 in 2025, but first, according to @MarkNewtonCMT, a downswing to $60,000 is on the horizon. pic.twitter.com/44rG8EVUV4

另一方面，@fundstrat 認為 #Bitcoin $BTC 到 2025 年可能會達到 250,000 美元，但首先，根據 @MarkNewtonCMT 的說法，下跌至 60,000 美元即將到來。 pic.twitter.com/44rG8EVUV4

— Ali (@ali_charts) December 26, 2024

— 阿里 (@ali_charts) 2024 年 12 月 26 日

This gap in strong support levels means Bitcoin could move quickly through this range if selling pressure increases. The concentration of predictions around the $70,000-$73,000 range from different analytical approaches adds weight to this target zone.

強大支撐位的差距意味著，如果拋售壓力增加，比特幣可能會迅速突破該區間。不同分析方法的預測集中在 70,000 美元至 73,000 美元範圍內，增加了該目標區域的權重。

Historical price patterns from previous bull markets help explain why these support levels matter. Past corrections during bull markets have often found support at previous resistance levels, making the $70,000 area particularly important as it marked Bitcoin’s previous all-time high before the recent breakout. This price zone also coincides with institutional entry points from late 2024, suggesting potential buying interest at these levels.

之前多頭的歷史價格模式有助於解釋為什麼這些支撐位很重要。過去牛市期間的調整往往會在先前的阻力位找到支撐，這使得 70,000 美元區域尤其重要，因為它標誌著比特幣在最近突破之前的歷史新高。該價格區域也與 2024 年末的機構入場點重合，顯示在這些水準上存在潛在的購買興趣。

Political and monetary policy risks

政治和貨幣政策風險

According to Matrixport, the Fed’s monetary policy outlook faces new pressures as Trump’s presidency approaches. The FOMC may adopt a more hawkish stance in response to potential fiscal policies under Trump, which could create uncertainty for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. This shift marks a change from December 2021, when the move away from near-zero interest rates began a new policy cycle.

Matrixport表示，隨著川普就任總統的臨近，聯準會的貨幣政策前景面臨新的壓力。聯邦公開市場委員會可能會採取更強硬的立場來應對川普領導下的潛在財政政策，這可能會為比特幣和更廣泛的加密市場帶來不確定性。這一轉變標誌著自 2021 年 12 月以來的變化，當時接近零利率的轉變開始了新的政策週期。

The regulatory situation has also played a key role in Bitcoin bull markets at key turning points. Past examples include China’s PBoC banning banks from crypto dealings in January 2017, the SEC taking action against unregistered fundraising in December 2017, and China restricting crypto mining in May 2021.

監管情勢也在比特幣多頭市場的關鍵轉折點發揮了關鍵作用。過去的例子包括中國央行於 2017 年 1 月禁止銀行進行加密貨幣交易，美國證券交易委員會於 2017 年 12 月對未經註冊的籌款採取行動，以及中國於 2021 年 5 月限制加密貨幣挖礦。

While many regulatory concerns have eased with the SEC’s approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs, new policy challenges could arise. Looking ahead to 2025, the interaction between Trump’s fiscal policies and Fed responses may determine Bitcoin’s price direction. Matrixport’s inflation model, which predicted the 2023 bull market when others forecasted recession, suggests inflation should not pose major problems next year.

儘管隨著美國證券交易委員會批准比特幣現貨 ETF，許多監管問題得到緩解，但新的政策挑戰可能會出現。展望2025年，川普的財政政策和聯準會的反應之間的相互作用可能會決定比特幣的價格走向。 Matrixport 的通膨模型在其他人預測經濟衰退時預測了 2023 年牛市，表明通膨明年不會構成重大問題。

However, the combination of new fiscal policies, changing Fed responses, and evolving regulatory frameworks creates a complex environment for Bitcoin’s price development through 2025.

然而，新的財政政策、聯準會不斷變化的應對措施以及不斷變化的監管框架相結合，為 2025 年比特幣的價格發展創造了一個複雜的環境。