比特币价格接近 9 万美元，比特币矿商加大抛售压力，引发对突破 10 万美元的怀疑

随着 BTC 价格突破 9 万美元，比特币 [BTC] 矿工的抛售压力加剧。 11 月 10 日至 17 日期间，矿工售出超过 11 万 BTC

Bitcoin [BTC] miners have been ramping up their selling activity as BTC crossed the $90K price mark. In a week, from 10 to 17 November, over 110K BTC, amounting to nearly $10 billion, were sold by the miners.

随着 BTC 价格突破 9 万美元大关，比特币 [BTC] 矿商一直在加大抛售活动。 11 月 10 日至 17 日一周内，矿工卖出了超过 11 万枚 BTC，价值近 100 亿美元。

The highest daily sell-off occurred on 12 November as 25,367 BTC (worth $2.2B) were offloaded in the market. The heavy selling activity from the miners was observed throughout the period.

每日最高抛售发生在 11 月 12 日，当时市场上抛售了 25,367 BTC（价值 $2.2B）。整个期间都观察到矿商的大量抛售活动。

As observed, miner sell-off has been rising since October, in line with the broader market recovery from the sell-off in the third quarter of 2021.

据观察，矿商抛售自 10 月以来一直在上升，与 2021 年第三季度大盘从抛售中复苏的情况一致。

However, this week’s intensified sell-pressure raised doubts about whether it could hinder BTC from crossing the psychological target of $100K.

然而，本周加剧的抛售压力引发了人们对是否会阻碍 BTC 突破 10 万美元心理目标的怀疑。

In the past, high miner sell-offs and revenue have marked local and cycle tops. If the current trend and reading leaned on the latter, that could also trigger other holders to sell.

过去，矿商的高抛售和收入标志着本地和周期的顶部。如果当前的趋势和读数倾向于后者，也可能会引发其他持有者抛售。

So, what’s the current cycle status as BTC flirts with $90K and eyes $100K?

那么，当 BTC 接近 9 万美元并瞄准 10 万美元时，当前的周期状态如何？

Decoding BTC’s cycle top

解读BTC周期顶部

From a miner’s perspective, a spike in miner fees (yellow) above 30% of total revenue has typically been correlated with past BTC cycle tops.

从矿工的角度来看，矿工费用（黄色）飙升至总收入的 30% 以上通常与过去的 BTC 周期顶部相关。

A high reading means elevated euphoria in BTC markets, which drives transaction fees to record high against rewards. That’s an overheated market signal.

高读数意味着 BTC 市场的兴奋度上升，这推动交易费用相对于奖励创下历史新高。这是市场过热的信号。

In November, the miner fees hovered around 10% of total revenue, indicating that the market was not yet overheated.

11月份，矿工费占总收入的10%左右徘徊，表明市场尚未过热。

Another indicator, the Pi Cycle Top, showed little room for a rally for BTC before the market became overheated.

另一个指标 Pi 周期顶部显示，在市场过热之前，BTC 的上涨空间很小。

In past trends, BTC’s move above the moving average (350DMA x2, green line) marked the cycle top and a signal for holders to offload.

在过去的趋势中，BTC 突破移动平均线（350DMA x2，绿线）标志着周期顶部，也是持有者抛售的信号。

The green line reading showed $120K, so the BTC surge past the level could be deemed a sell signal.

绿线读数显示 12 万美元，因此 BTC 突破该水平可被视为卖出信号。

Read Bitcoin [BTC] Price Prediction 2024-2025

阅读比特币 [BTC] 价格预测 2024-2025

Interestingly, the $100K-$120K targets were largely expected by large players across the options market, as noted by QCP Capital, one of the world’s largest crypto options trading desks. The firm recently noted,

有趣的是，正如全球最大的加密货币期权交易平台之一 QCP Capital 指出的那样，10 万至 12 万美元的目标很大程度上是整个期权市场的大型参与者所预期的。该公司最近指出，

“In view of Bitcoin’s impressive rally since the US election, our view is that $100,000 – $120,000 may not be too far off.”

“鉴于比特币自美国大选以来令人印象深刻的反弹，我们认为 10 万至 12 万美元可能不会太遥远。”

If so, a strong move above $120K could trigger the Pi Cycle Top and, by extension, increase profit booking across all cohorts of BTC holders. That would imply a 30% move from the $90K level at press time.

如果是这样，突破 12 万美元的强劲走势可能会触发 Pi 周期顶部，并进而增加所有 BTC 持有者群体的利润预订。这意味着从截至发稿时的 9 万美元水平上涨 30%。