比特幣價格接近 9 萬美元，比特幣礦商加大拋售壓力，引發突破 10 萬美元的懷疑

隨著 BTC 價格突破 9 萬美元，比特幣 [BTC] 礦工的拋售壓力加劇。 11 月 10 日至 17 日期間，礦工售出超過 11 萬 BTC

Bitcoin [BTC] miners have been ramping up their selling activity as BTC crossed the $90K price mark. In a week, from 10 to 17 November, over 110K BTC, amounting to nearly $10 billion, were sold by the miners.

隨著 BTC 價格突破 9 萬美元大關，比特幣 [BTC] 礦商一直在加大拋售活動。 11 月 10 日至 17 日一週內，礦工賣出了超過 11 萬枚 BTC，價值近 100 億美元。

The highest daily sell-off occurred on 12 November as 25,367 BTC (worth $2.2B) were offloaded in the market. The heavy selling activity from the miners was observed throughout the period.

每日最高拋售發生在 11 月 12 日，當時市場上拋售了 25,367 BTC（價值 $2.2B）。整個期間都觀察到礦商的大量拋售活動。

As observed, miner sell-off has been rising since October, in line with the broader market recovery from the sell-off in the third quarter of 2021.

據觀察，礦商拋售自 10 月以來一直在上升，與 2021 年第三季大盤從拋售中復甦的情況一致。

However, this week’s intensified sell-pressure raised doubts about whether it could hinder BTC from crossing the psychological target of $100K.

然而，本週加劇的拋售壓力引發了人們對是否會阻礙 BTC 突破 10 萬美元心理目標的懷疑。

In the past, high miner sell-offs and revenue have marked local and cycle tops. If the current trend and reading leaned on the latter, that could also trigger other holders to sell.

過去，礦商的高拋售和收入標誌著本地和週期的頂部。如果當前的趨勢和讀數傾向於後者，也可能引發其他持有者拋售。

So, what’s the current cycle status as BTC flirts with $90K and eyes $100K?

那麼，當 BTC 接近 9 萬美元並瞄準 10 萬美元時，當前的週期狀態如何？

Decoding BTC’s cycle top

解讀BTC週期頂部

From a miner’s perspective, a spike in miner fees (yellow) above 30% of total revenue has typically been correlated with past BTC cycle tops.

從礦工的角度來看，礦工費用（黃色）飆升至總收入的 30% 以上通常與過去的 BTC 週期頂部相關。

A high reading means elevated euphoria in BTC markets, which drives transaction fees to record high against rewards. That’s an overheated market signal.

高讀數意味著 BTC 市場的興奮度上升，這推動交易費用相對於獎勵創下歷史新高。這是市場過熱的訊號。

In November, the miner fees hovered around 10% of total revenue, indicating that the market was not yet overheated.

11月份，礦工費佔總收入的10%左右徘徊，顯示市場尚未過熱。

Another indicator, the Pi Cycle Top, showed little room for a rally for BTC before the market became overheated.

另一個指標 Pi 週期頂部顯示，在市場過熱之前，BTC 的上漲空間很小。

In past trends, BTC’s move above the moving average (350DMA x2, green line) marked the cycle top and a signal for holders to offload.

在過去的趨勢中，BTC 突破移動平均線（350DMA x2，綠線）標誌著週期頂部，也是持有者拋售的訊號。

The green line reading showed $120K, so the BTC surge past the level could be deemed a sell signal.

綠線讀數顯示 12 萬美元，因此 BTC 突破該水平可被視為賣出訊號。

Read Bitcoin [BTC] Price Prediction 2024-2025

閱讀比特幣 [BTC] 價格預測 2024-2025

Interestingly, the $100K-$120K targets were largely expected by large players across the options market, as noted by QCP Capital, one of the world’s largest crypto options trading desks. The firm recently noted,

有趣的是，正如全球最大的加密貨幣選擇權交易平台之一 QCP Capital 指出的那樣，10 萬至 12 萬美元的目標很大程度上是整個選擇市場的大型參與者所預期的。該公司最近指出，

“In view of Bitcoin’s impressive rally since the US election, our view is that $100,000 – $120,000 may not be too far off.”

“鑑於比特幣自美國大選以來令人印象深刻的反彈，我們認為 10 萬至 12 萬美元可能不會太遙遠。”

If so, a strong move above $120K could trigger the Pi Cycle Top and, by extension, increase profit booking across all cohorts of BTC holders. That would imply a 30% move from the $90K level at press time.

如果是這樣，突破 12 萬美元的強勁走勢可能會觸發 Pi 週期頂部，並進而增加所有 BTC 持有者群體的利潤預訂。這意味著從截至發稿時的 9 萬美元水準上漲 30%。