特朗普上任后比特币市场预计将发生重大转变

随着自称为“加密货币总统”的美国总统唐纳德·特朗普就职，市场内部人士和投资者都在热切关注加密货币市场是否会维持其势头。

As U.S. President Donald Trump begins his term, market insiders and investors are keeping a close eye on whether the crypto market will maintain its momentum. Their anticipation is understandable, given that over the past year, Bitcoin's price has surged by about 125 percent, outpacing the annual returns of both the U.S. stock market and gold. Heightened expectations for pro-crypto policies have propelled Bitcoin to reach the so-called "dream level" of $100,000 for the first time.

随着美国总统唐纳德·特朗普开始就任，市场内部人士和投资者正在密切关注加密货币市场是否会保持其势头。他们的预期是可以理解的，因为在过去的一年里，比特币的价格飙升了约 125%，超过了美国股市和黄金的年回报率。对支持加密货币政策的期望提高，推动比特币首次达到所谓的 10 万美元“梦想水平”。

According to market observers, the outlook for U.S. crypto policy has never been better. Tom Lee, managing partner and head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, enthusiastically touted Bitcoin, stating, "Never in financial history has anything reached $2 trillion [in size and] disappeared."

市场观察人士认为，美国加密货币政策的前景从未如此美好。 Fundstrat Global Advisors 管理合伙人兼研究主管汤姆·李 (Tom Lee) 热情地吹捧比特币，他表示：“在金融史上，从未有任何东西达到 2 万亿美元规模却消失了。”

Such dramatic growth was accompanied by Trump's bold promises during the presidential election campaign, including eliminating regulations in the crypto sector and designating Bitcoin as a national strategic reserve asset.

如此巨大的增长伴随着特朗普在总统竞选期间的大胆承诺，包括取消加密货币行业的监管以及将比特币指定为国家战略储备资产。

Moreover, Trump has filled key administration positions with pro-crypto figures. Paul Atkins, known for his favorable stance on digital assets, was nominated as the next chair of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent drew attention for including Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in his personal portfolio. Notably, Elon Musk is also poised to head the newly formed Department of Government Efficiency, while former PayPal executive David Sacks was named the new White House "cryptocurrency and AI czar."

此外，特朗普还任命了支持加密货币的人物来填补关键的政府职位。因对数字资产持支持态度而闻名的保罗·阿特金斯 (Paul Atkins) 被提名为美国证券交易委员会下一任主席。财政部长提名人斯科特·贝森特因将比特币交易所交易基金纳入其个人投资组合而引起关注。值得注意的是，埃隆·马斯克还准备领导新成立的政府效率部，而前 PayPal 高管大卫·萨克斯被任命为新任白宫“加密货币和人工智能沙皇”。

In a recent report, senior research fellows Kim Kab-lae and Hwang Sei-woon of the Korea Capital Market Institute highlighted that, "With the Republican Party now in control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives, the likelihood of passing various legislation to address regulatory uncertainties in the virtual asset market has significantly increased."

韩国资本市场研究所的高级研究员 Kim Kab-lae 和 Hwang Sei-woon 在最近的一份报告中强调，“随着共和党现在控制参议院和众议院，通过各种立法的可能性为解决虚拟资产市场的监管不确定性显着增加。”

Global investment bank Bernstein has predicted that Bitcoin could reach as high as $200,000 in 2025, driven by growing institutional and government demand. Standard Chartered expressed similar optimism.

全球投资银行 Bernstein 预测，在机构和政府需求不断增长的推动下，比特币到 2025 年可能会达到 20 万美元。渣打银行也表达了类似的乐观态度。

"The shift from regulatory uncertainty to a clear legal framework would likely encourage institutional adoption and further integrate digital assets into the traditional financial system," crypto market intelligence firm Messari also wrote in its recent report.

加密市场情报公司 Messari 在其最近的报告中还写道：“从监管不确定性到明确的法律框架的转变可能会鼓励机构采用并进一步将数字资产整合到传统金融体系中。”

However, much still remains to be proven. Some caution that many of the anticipated policy benefits may already be priced in, urging investors to maintain a more conservative outlook.

然而，还有很多事情有待证明。一些人警告说，许多预期的政策好处可能已经被定价，敦促投资者保持更加保守的前景。

As expectations for the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts diminished, Bitcoin, being a risky asset, fell below $90,000 on Jan. 14 — its lowest level in two months.

随着美联储降息预期减弱，比特币作为一种风险资产，在 1 月 14 日跌破 9 万美元，创两个月来最低水平。

"We anticipate that Bitcoin will experience a period of consolidation until mid-March or early May, as financial markets, including Bitcoin, process the Fed's hawkish stance on inflation," said Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research. "Furthermore, this period of consolidation is being exacerbated by selling pressure from older Bitcoin wallets, which are taking profits at current levels."

10x Research 创始人马库斯·蒂伦 (Markus Thielen) 表示：“我们预计，随着包括比特币在内的金融市场接受美联储对通胀的强硬立场，比特币将经历一段整合期，直到 3 月中旬或 5 月初。” “此外，旧的比特币钱包的抛售压力正在加剧这一整合时期，这些钱包正在以目前的水平获利了结。”

Internal disagreements over crypto's institutionalization could also pose risks. In December, Fed Chair Jerome Powell expressed opposition to supporting the incoming administration's strategic Bitcoin holdings, briefly pushing Bitcoin's price below the $100,000 mark.

关于加密货币制度化的内部分歧也可能带来风险。去年 12 月，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示反对支持即将上任的政府战略性持有比特币，一度将比特币价格推低至 10 万美元大关以下。

Nor can we overlook the unpredictable nature of Trump's leadership style. Some believe there is a chance that he could reverse his pro-crypto stance to prioritize the U.S. dollar hegemony, a move aligned with national interest.

我们也不能忽视特朗普领导风格的不可预测性。一些人认为，他有可能扭转支持加密货币的立场，优先考虑美元霸权，此举符合国家利益。

"A shift toward a hostile stance on crypto could occur if an economic crisis undermines the dollar’s position, particularly if capital flows into crypto or if the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) financial system gains significant traction," Messari noted. "The risk of a reversal in sentiment toward crypto is not zero."

Messari 表示：“如果经济危机损害了美元的地位，特别是如果资本流入加密货币，或者金砖五国（巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非）的金融体系获得巨大牵引力，那么对加密货币的敌对立场可能会发生转变。”著名的。 “加密货币情绪逆转的风险并非为零。”

But why is the U.S. taking such bold actions in the first place?

但美国为什么要采取如此大胆的行动呢？

Kim and Hwang noted that "maintaining a leading position in the digital asset market could be a crucial factor in sustaining America’s global influence in the future."

Kim 和 Hwang 指出，“保持在数字资产市场的领先地位可能是维持美国未来全球影响力的关键因素。”

If the Trump administration eventually resolves the regulatory uncertainties and fosters policies to encourage innovation, it could lead to a concentration of related industries and capital in the U.S., ultimately positioning the country as a global standard-setter for crypto regulations.

如果特朗普政府最终解决监管不确定性并制定鼓励创新的政策，可能会导致相关产业和资本向美国集中，最终使该国成为全球加密货币监管标准制定者。

Such a shift would have significant global ripple effects. Market watchers caution that Korea must closely monitor its legislative outcomes.

这种转变将产生重大的全球连锁反应。市场观察人士警告说，韩国必须密切关注其立法结果。

"While it is true that there are significant differences in perception of digital assets in Korea, it is essential to consider that failing to prepare for the potential growth of the digital asset market poses an even greater risk," Kim and Hwang added.

Kim 和 Hwang 补充道：“虽然韩国对数字资产的看法确实存在显着差异，但必须考虑到，未能为数字资产市场的潜在增长做好准备会带来更大的风险。”