比特币价值20万美元？伯恩斯坦预测价格，无论选举影响如何

距离美国民意调查结束不到一天，加密货币分析师继续对比特币和加密货币的未来发表两美分的看法。

After adjusting their Bitcoin price predictions based on the potential outcomes of the upcoming U.S. election, Bernstein analysts are now predicting that Bitcoin could hit $200,000 by the end of next year.

在根据即将到来的美国大选的潜在结果调整比特币价格预测后，伯恩斯坦分析师现在预测比特币到明年年底可能会达到 20 万美元。

The analysts, led by Gautam Chhugani, had initially predicted that Bitcoin would trade for around $80,000 to $90,000 if Republican candidate Donald Trump won the election. They expected the BTC price to drop to $50,000 if Democrat candidate Kamala Harris won.

以 Gautam Chhugani 为首的分析师最初预测，如果共和党候选人唐纳德·特朗普赢得大选，比特币的交易价格将达到 80,000 至 90,000 美元左右。他们预计，如果民主党候选人卡马拉·哈里斯获胜，比特币价格将跌至 50,000 美元。

However, Bernstein’s latest analysis seems to indicate that the election results will not impact the asset’s long-term price trajectory. Chhugani reportedly stated that the short-term price movements will be affected by the election, but they expect Bitcoin to benefit more from a Trump win.

然而，伯恩斯坦的最新分析似乎表明，选举结果不会影响该资产的长期价格轨迹。据报道，Chhugani 表示，短期价格走势将受到选举的影响，但他们预计比特币将从特朗普获胜中受益更多。

According to the Bernstein analysts, if Harris wins the election, Bitcoin could trade for around $50,000. But if Trump wins, they expect BTC to hit $80,000 to $90,000.

Bernstein 分析师表示，如果哈里斯赢得选举，比特币的交易价格可能约为 50,000 美元。但如果特朗普获胜，他们预计 BTC 将达到 80,000 至 90,000 美元。

The analysts also noted that if Harris wins the polls, the BTC price could dip to $50,000. But Bernstein didn’t stop making Bitcoin predictions immediately after the election; the group remains bullish on Bitcoin in the short term and expects the digital asset to hit $200,000 by 2025.

分析师还指出，如果哈里斯赢得民意调查，比特币价格可能会跌至 50,000 美元。但伯恩斯坦并没有在大选后立即停止对比特币的预测；该组织短期内仍看好比特币，预计到 2025 年该数字资产将达到 20 万美元。

According to Bernstein analysts, the other key factors driving Bitcoin’s price are the increasing demand for spot BTC ETFs and rising US debts.

Bernstein 分析师表示，推动比特币价格上涨的其他关键因素是对现货 BTC ETF 需求的增加和美国债务的增加。

Bernstein Adjusts BTC Price Predictions: $50K Under Harris, $80-90K With Trump

伯恩斯坦调整 BTC 价格预测：哈里斯领导下 5 万美元，特朗普领导下 80-9 万美元

Bernstein analysts adjusted their Bitcoin price predictions based on the potential outcomes of the upcoming U.S. election. If Harris wins, they foresee Bitcoin dropping to around $50,000, while a… pic.twitter.com/Z1zJ21aJ48

伯恩斯坦分析师根据即将到来的美国大选的潜在结果调整了他们的比特币价格预测。如果哈里斯获胜，他们预计比特币将跌至 50,000 美元左右，而…… pic.twitter.com/Z1zJ21aJ48

— The Wolf Of All Streets (@scottmelker) November 4, 2024

— 满街之狼 (@scottmelker) 2024 年 11 月 4 日

The Bernstein analysts are betting on Bitcoin and expect its price to reach $200,000 by the end of next year, regardless of the election results. Chhugani made this bold prediction days before the Americans visited the polls to cast their ballots for the next president of the United States.

伯恩斯坦分析师押注比特币，预计无论选举结果如何，到明年年底其价格将达到 20 万美元。楚加尼在美国人前往投票站投票选出下一任美国总统的几天前做出了这一大胆预测。

Chhugani, who is known for adjusting his Bitcoin price predictions based on the latest market trends, stated that the election results will not impact the asset’s long-term outlook.

Chhugani 以根据最新市场趋势调整比特币价格预测而闻名，他表示选举结果不会影响该资产的长期前景。

The analyst’s bullish projection on Bitcoin is based on several factors, including the increasing demand for spot BTC ETFs and higher government’s national debt.

该分析师对比特币的看涨预测基于多个因素，包括对现货 BTC ETF 需求的增加和政府国债的增加。

Chhugani likened the asset to a “genie out of the bottle” and said stopping its price trajectory is difficult. He also highlighted several factors that can drive the asset’s price, including increased interest on the BTC ETFs and higher government’s national debt.

楚加尼将该资产比作“瓶子里的精灵”，并表示很难阻止其价格走势。他还强调了可能推动该资产价格的几个因素，包括 BTC ETF 利息增加和政府国债增加。

Last month, Bernstein’s top analyst targeted $100k for Bitcoin but soon revised his projection to reflect changes in market trends.

上个月，伯恩斯坦的顶级分析师将比特币的目标定为 10 万美元，但很快就修改了他的预测，以反映市场趋势的变化。

This year’s election battle between Trump and Harris is among the most highly debated and anticipated. In addition to traditional polling, data from betting markets like Polymarket also became famous.

今年特朗普和哈里斯之间的选举之战是最受争议和期待的之一。除了传统的民意调查之外，Polymarket 等博彩市场的数据也广为人知。

For example, at Polymarket, Trump remains the favorite, cornering 63% of all wagers, with Harris getting 38%. Bernstein analysts say that regardless of the results, the asset will have short-term price movements.

例如，在 Polymarket，特朗普仍然是最受欢迎的，占据了所有赌注的 63%，哈里斯获得了 38%。伯恩斯坦分析师表示，无论结果如何，该资产都会出现短期价格波动。

However, they expect BTC to benefit more from a Trump win. In the same Bernstein analysis, Bitcoin may increase to $90,000 if the Republican wins.

然而，他们预计 BTC 将从特朗普获胜中受益更多。在伯恩斯坦的同一份分析中，如果共和党获胜，比特币可能会上涨至 90,000 美元。

Currently, Bitcoin’s price has dropped to $69k to $68k due to profit-taking. Also, analysts noted the weak inflows this week to ETFs. Most analysts agree that Bitcoin is still poised for an end-of-the-year rally.

目前，由于获利了结，比特币的价格已跌至 6.9 万至 6.8 万美元。此外，分析师还指出，本周 ETF 资金流入疲软。大多数分析师都认为，比特币仍有望在年底上涨。

The US elections also affect other digital assets besides Bitcoin. For example, in a Harris presidency, Ether may gain due to heightened regulations that can limit the performance of its competition, like Solana.

美国大选还影响除比特币之外的其他数字资产。例如，在哈里斯担任总统期间，以太坊可能会因加强监管而获益，这些监管可能会限制其竞争对手（如 Solana）的表现。

Chhuhani offers a differing view, saying if the SEC adopts moderate policies, these can propel Bitcoin and other assets.

Chhuhani 提出了不同的观点，他表示，如果 SEC 采取温和的政策，这些政策可以推动比特币和其他资产的发展。

This year’s election cycle puts crypto and the blockchain at the center of debates. Both candidates have shared their thoughts on crypto, with Trump offering more crypto-friendly solutions.

今年的选举周期将加密货币和区块链置于辩论的中心。两位候选人都分享了他们对加密货币的想法，特朗普提供了更多对加密货币友好的解决方案。

Initially, Democrat Harris was reluctant to offer policy proposals, but she shifted her tone as the campaign moved forward.

最初，民主党人哈里斯不愿提出政策建议，但随着竞选的进展，她改变了语气。