随着减半临近，比特币囤积者撤离

根据 Bitfinex Alpha 报告，长期比特币持有者继续减持。该报告指出，离开中心化交易所的比特币数量显着增加，而闲置比特币供应量则有所减少，而闲置比特币供应量在一年多的时间里一直在减少。这一趋势反映了比特币市场大幅上涨之前的走势，表明存在类似的增长阶段。与此同时，比特币交易储备已达到几年来的最低水平。

Bitcoin's Idle Supply Shrinks as Long-Term Holders Prepare for Halving

随着长期持有者准备减半，比特币的闲置供应减少

A Surprising Exodus of Bitcoin from Exchanges

比特币出人意料地从交易所外流

The cryptocurrency market is buzzing with anticipation as Bitcoin approaches its next halving event in April 2024. A recent report from Bitfinex Alpha painted a compelling picture of the current state of Bitcoin holdings, revealing a significant drop in the idle supply of Bitcoin, a phenomenon not seen in over 18 months. This suggests that long-term holders are actively reducing their holdings or withdrawing them from exchanges.

随着比特币将于 2024 年 4 月迎来下一次减半事件，加密货币市场充满了期待。Bitfinex Alpha 最近的一份报告描绘了一幅令人信服的比特币持有量现状图景，揭示了比特币闲置供应量大幅下降，这一现象并非如此。超过 18 个月内出现。这表明长期持有者正在积极减持或从交易所撤资。

Echoes of Pre-Bull Market Activity

牛市前市场活动的回声

Analysts at Bitfinex drew parallels between the current behavior of Bitcoin holders and similar patterns observed in December 2020, just before a substantial surge in the Bitcoin market. This trend, they believe, indicates that Bitcoin may be poised for another growth phase.

Bitfinex 的分析师将比特币持有者当前的行为与 2020 年 12 月比特币市场大幅上涨之前观察到的类似模式进行了比较。他们认为，这一趋势表明比特币可能即将进入另一个增长阶段。

Exchange Reserves at Historically Low Levels

外汇储备处于历史低位

Data from CryptoQuant further corroborates the decline in long-term holders' Bitcoin supply on exchanges. Charts show that Bitcoin exchange reserves have plummeted to their lowest levels since CryptoQuant began tracking this metric in early 2021. In July 2021, Bitcoin exchange reserves hovered around 2.8 million, but have now dwindled to approximately 1.94 million. This represents a significant decrease of around 862,000 Bitcoins.

CryptoQuant 的数据进一步证实了长期持有者在交易所的比特币供应量的下降。图表显示，自 CryptoQuant 在 2021 年初开始跟踪这一指标以来，比特币交易储备已暴跌至最低水平。2021 年 7 月，比特币交易储备徘徊在 280 万左右，但现在已减少至约 194 万。这意味着比特币数量大幅减少了约 862,000 个。

The Impending Halving Takes Center Stage

即将到来的减半成为焦点

Amidst the market sell-off on Monday, the upcoming halving has become a focal point for investors. The Bitfinex report highlights that despite the recent price dip, indicators such as stabilizing funding rates suggest that traders' focus has shifted back to the anticipated halving.

在周一市场抛售中，即将到来的减半成为投资者关注的焦点。 Bitfinex 报告强调，尽管近期价格下跌，但稳定融资利率等指标表明，交易者的注意力已重新回到预期的减半上。

Caution Urged Amidst Forward-Looking Pricing

前瞻性定价中需谨慎

However, experts caution against complacency, as the halving event incorporates future price expectations from markets, which could now potentially pull back. Timo Lehes, co-founder of Swarm Markets, emphasizes that there is still scope for price discovery, especially considering the geopolitical volatility that has caused prices to dip unexpectedly in the short term.

然而，专家警告不要自满，因为减半事件包含了市场对未来价格的预期，现在可能会回落。 Swarm Markets 联合创始人 Timo Lehes 强调，价格发现仍有空间，特别是考虑到地缘政治波动导致价格在短期内意外下跌。

A Halving History of Bitcoin Bull Runs

比特币牛市的减半历史

Every four years, Bitcoin's halving event cuts the block reward earned by miners in half. This time around, it means that newly mined Bitcoin blocks will yield 3,125 BTC, down from the current block reward of 6.25 BTC.

每四年，比特币减半事件就会使矿工获得的区块奖励减少一半。这一次，这意味着新开采的比特币区块将产生 3,125 BTC，低于当前 6.25 BTC 的区块奖励。

According to The Block's Bitcoin Halving Countdown page, based on current estimates, the halving is expected to occur on April 20, 2024, at 03:48 UK time, once the network reaches a block height of 840,000.

根据 The Block 的比特币减半倒计时页面显示，根据目前的估计，一旦网络达到 840,000 的区块高度，减半预计将在英国时间 2024 年 4 月 20 日 03:48 发生。

Historically, Bitcoin has experienced substantial price gains 12 to 18 months after a halving, as declining supply coincided with increasing demand. For instance, at the time of the halving in 2020, one Bitcoin cost less than $10,000. By the 2022 peak, prices had soared to over $67,000.

从历史上看，比特币在减半后的 12 至 18 个月内经历了大幅价格上涨，因为供应量下降与需求量增加同时发生。例如，2020 年减半时，一枚比特币的价格不到 10,000 美元。到 2022 年，价格已飙升至 67,000 美元以上。

Unprecedented Halving Context

前所未有的减半背景

However, this upcoming halving is unique in that it comes after the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs and a surge in institutional inflows. The impact of these factors on the halving's effect on Bitcoin's price remains to be seen.

然而，即将到来的减半是独一无二的，因为它是在比特币现货 ETF 推出和机构资金流入激增之后发生的。这些因素对减半对比特币价格的影响还有待观察。