隨著減半臨近，比特幣囤積者撤離

根據 Bitfinex Alpha 報告，長期比特幣持有者繼續減持。報告指出，離開中心化交易所的比特幣數量顯著增加，而閒置比特幣供應量則有所減少，而閒置比特幣供應量在一年多的時間裡一直在減少。這一趨勢反映了比特幣市場大幅上漲之前的走勢，顯示存在類似的成長階段。與此同時，比特幣交易儲備已達到幾年來的最低水準。

Bitcoin's Idle Supply Shrinks as Long-Term Holders Prepare for Halving

隨著長期持有者準備減半，比特幣的閒置供應減少

A Surprising Exodus of Bitcoin from Exchanges

比特幣出人意料地從交易所外流

The cryptocurrency market is buzzing with anticipation as Bitcoin approaches its next halving event in April 2024. A recent report from Bitfinex Alpha painted a compelling picture of the current state of Bitcoin holdings, revealing a significant drop in the idle supply of Bitcoin, a phenomenon not seen in over 18 months. This suggests that long-term holders are actively reducing their holdings or withdrawing them from exchanges.

隨著比特幣將於2024 年4 月迎來下一次減半事件，加密貨幣市場充滿了期待。比特幣閒置供應量大幅下降，這現象並非如此。這表明長期持有者正在積極減持或從交易所撤資。

Echoes of Pre-Bull Market Activity

多頭市場前市場活動的迴聲

Analysts at Bitfinex drew parallels between the current behavior of Bitcoin holders and similar patterns observed in December 2020, just before a substantial surge in the Bitcoin market. This trend, they believe, indicates that Bitcoin may be poised for another growth phase.

Bitfinex 的分析師將比特幣持有者當前的行為與 2020 年 12 月比特幣市場大幅上漲之前觀察到的類似模式進行了比較。他們認為，這一趨勢顯示比特幣可能即將進入另一個成長階段。

Exchange Reserves at Historically Low Levels

外匯存底處於歷史低位

Data from CryptoQuant further corroborates the decline in long-term holders' Bitcoin supply on exchanges. Charts show that Bitcoin exchange reserves have plummeted to their lowest levels since CryptoQuant began tracking this metric in early 2021. In July 2021, Bitcoin exchange reserves hovered around 2.8 million, but have now dwindled to approximately 1.94 million. This represents a significant decrease of around 862,000 Bitcoins.

CryptoQuant 的數據進一步證實了長期持有者在交易所的比特幣供應量的下降。圖表顯示，自 CryptoQuant 在 2021 年初開始追蹤此指標以來，比特幣交易儲備已暴跌至最低水準。這意味著比特幣數量大幅減少了約 862,000 個。

The Impending Halving Takes Center Stage

即將到來的減半成為焦點

Amidst the market sell-off on Monday, the upcoming halving has become a focal point for investors. The Bitfinex report highlights that despite the recent price dip, indicators such as stabilizing funding rates suggest that traders' focus has shifted back to the anticipated halving.

在周一市場拋售中，即將到來的減半成為投資者關注的焦點。 Bitfinex 報告強調，儘管近期價格下跌，但穩定融資利率等指標表明，交易者的注意力已重新回到預期的減半上。

Caution Urged Amidst Forward-Looking Pricing

前瞻性定價中需謹慎

However, experts caution against complacency, as the halving event incorporates future price expectations from markets, which could now potentially pull back. Timo Lehes, co-founder of Swarm Markets, emphasizes that there is still scope for price discovery, especially considering the geopolitical volatility that has caused prices to dip unexpectedly in the short term.

然而，專家警告不要自滿，因為減半事件包含了市場對未來價格的預期，現在可能會回落。 Swarm Markets 聯合創始人 Timo Lehes 強調，價格發現仍有空間，特別是考慮到地緣政治波動導致價格在短期內意外下跌。

A Halving History of Bitcoin Bull Runs

比特幣牛市的減半歷史

Every four years, Bitcoin's halving event cuts the block reward earned by miners in half. This time around, it means that newly mined Bitcoin blocks will yield 3,125 BTC, down from the current block reward of 6.25 BTC.

每四年，比特幣減半事件就會使礦工獲得的區塊獎勵減少一半。這一次，這意味著新開採的比特幣區塊將產生 3,125 BTC，低於目前 6.25 BTC 的區塊獎勵。

According to The Block's Bitcoin Halving Countdown page, based on current estimates, the halving is expected to occur on April 20, 2024, at 03:48 UK time, once the network reaches a block height of 840,000.

根據 The Block 的比特幣減半倒數頁面顯示，根據目前的估計，一旦網路達到 840,000 的區塊高度，減半預計將在英國時間 2024 年 4 月 20 日 03:48 發生。

Historically, Bitcoin has experienced substantial price gains 12 to 18 months after a halving, as declining supply coincided with increasing demand. For instance, at the time of the halving in 2020, one Bitcoin cost less than $10,000. By the 2022 peak, prices had soared to over $67,000.

從歷史上看，比特幣在減半後的 12 至 18 個月內經歷了大幅價格上漲，因為供應量下降與需求量增加同時發生。例如，2020 年減半時，一枚比特幣的價格不到 1 萬美元。到 2022 年，價格已飆升至 67,000 美元以上。

Unprecedented Halving Context

前所未有的減半背景

However, this upcoming halving is unique in that it comes after the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs and a surge in institutional inflows. The impact of these factors on the halving's effect on Bitcoin's price remains to be seen.

然而，即將到來的減半是獨一無二的，因為它是在比特幣現貨 ETF 推出和機構資金流入激增之後發生的。這些因素對減半對比特幣價格的影響仍有待觀察。