比特币可能已触及天花板，市场调整迫在眉睫

加密货币专家 Peter Brandt 认为，根据他的“指数衰减”理论，比特币在本次市场周期中的高点可能已经到来。该理论认为，比特币的百分比涨幅在随后的每个牛市周期中都会下降，预计当前周期的涨幅仅为前一个周期的 20%。 Brandt 认为，这意味着比特币最近的高点 73,750 美元可能是该周期的峰值。

Bitcoin's Prime Potentially Reached, Signaling a Market Correction

比特币可能达到顶峰，标志着市场调整

Cryptocurrency expert Peter Brandt's bold assertion that Bitcoin may have already peaked in this market cycle has sent shockwaves through the crypto community. Brandt's analysis hinges on his "exponential decay" thesis, which posits that Bitcoin's percentage gains have diminished significantly in each subsequent bull cycle.

加密货币专家 Peter Brandt 大胆断言，比特币可能已经在这个市场周期中达到顶峰，这在加密社区引起了冲击。布兰特的分析取决于他的“指数衰减”理论，该理论认为比特币的百分比涨幅在随后的每个牛市周期中都显着减少。

Historical Data Paints a Grim Picture

历史数据描绘了一幅严峻的画面

Brandt's analysis is rooted in historical data, which suggests that Bitcoin's surge in value may have come to an end. He notes that in the previous cycle, Bitcoin soared by a staggering 122x, from its market low to market high between 2015 and 2017. However, this represented only 21.3% of Bitcoin's price increase in the preceding cycle (2011 to 2013).

布兰特的分析植根于历史数据，这表明比特币价值的飙升可能已经结束。他指出，在上一个周期中，比特币在 2015 年至 2017 年期间从市场低点飙升至市场高点，飙升了惊人的 122 倍。然而，这仅占上一个周期（2011 年至 2013 年）比特币价格涨幅的 21.3%。

Similarly, in the 2018 to 2021 cycle, Bitcoin surged 22x from its market low to market high, but this only accounted for 18% of the price increase witnessed in the previous cycle. Brandt contends that this trend will likely continue in the current cycle, with Bitcoin projected to achieve roughly 20% of the value increase seen in the previous cycle.

同样，在 2018 年至 2021 年周期中，比特币从市场低点飙升至市场高点 22 倍，但这仅占上一周期价格涨幅的 18%。 Brandt 认为，这种趋势可能会在当前周期中持续下去，比特币预计将实现上一周期价值增长的 20% 左右。

Based on this analysis, Brandt estimates that Bitcoin's market high for this cycle would be around $72,723, which is a level the cryptocurrency already surpassed on its way to hitting a new all-time high (ATH) of $73,750.

根据这一分析，Brandt 估计本周期比特币的市场高点约为 72,723 美元，该加密货币在创下 73,750 美元的历史新高 (ATH) 的过程中已经超越了这一水平。

Exponential Decay: A Potential Blessing in Disguise

指数衰减：因祸得福

While Brandt's analysis suggests a market correction, he also sees a silver lining in the exponential decay. If Bitcoin indeed undergoes a decline to around $30,000 or its 2021 lows, Brandt believes this could be "the most bullish factor that could occur from a long-term view."

虽然布兰特的分析表明市场将出现调整，但他也看到了指数衰退的一线希望。 Brandt 认为，如果比特币确实跌至 30,000 美元左右或 2021 年低点，这可能是“从长期角度来看可能出现的最乐观的因素”。

Brandt explains that from a classical charting perspective, Bitcoin is still poised for significant parabolic moves to the upside, even if it does not occur immediately. He shares an example of what Bitcoin's chart might look like when this move transpires, with the cryptocurrency rallying above $100,000. Brandt also draws parallels to Gold's chart from August 2020 to March 2024, suggesting a similar pattern could unfold for Bitcoin.

布兰特解释说，从经典图表的角度来看，比特币仍然准备好大幅上涨，即使它不会立即发生。他分享了一个例子，说明当这一走势发生时，比特币的图表可能会是什么样子，加密货币将反弹至 100,000 美元以上。布兰特还与 2020 年 8 月至 2024 年 3 月黄金的图表进行了比较，表明比特币可能会出现类似的模式。

Uncertainty Reigns

不确定性盛行

Despite Brandt's cogent analysis, it is important to note that the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and unpredictable. It remains to be seen whether Bitcoin will follow the exponential decay pattern and experience a substantial correction or if it will defy expectations and continue its upward trajectory.

尽管布兰特的分析令人信服，但值得注意的是，加密货币市场高度波动且不可预测。比特币是否会遵循指数衰减模式并经历大幅调整，或者是否会超出预期并继续其上升轨迹，还有待观察。

Investors are advised to exercise caution and conduct their own thorough research before making any investment decisions. The cryptocurrency market carries significant risks, and any investments should be made with a full understanding of the potential for loss.

建议投资者在做出任何投资决定之前谨慎行事并进行彻底的研究。加密货币市场存在重大风险，任何投资都应在充分了解潜在损失的情况下进行。