比特幣可能已觸及天花板，市場調整迫在眉睫

加密貨幣專家 Peter Brandt 認為，根據他的「指數衰減」理論，比特幣在本次市場週期中的高點可能已經到來。該理論認為，比特幣的百分比漲幅在隨後的每個牛市週期中都會下降，預計當前週期的漲幅僅為前一個週期的 20%。 Brandt 認為，這意味著比特幣最近的高點 73,750 美元可能是該週期的峰值。

Bitcoin's Prime Potentially Reached, Signaling a Market Correction

比特幣可能達到頂峰，標誌著市場調整

Cryptocurrency expert Peter Brandt's bold assertion that Bitcoin may have already peaked in this market cycle has sent shockwaves through the crypto community. Brandt's analysis hinges on his "exponential decay" thesis, which posits that Bitcoin's percentage gains have diminished significantly in each subsequent bull cycle.

加密貨幣專家 Peter Brandt 大膽斷言，比特幣可能已經在這個市場週期中達到頂峰，這在加密社群中引起了衝擊。布蘭特的分析取決於他的「指數衰減」理論，該理論認為比特幣的百分比漲幅在隨後的每個牛市週期中都顯著減少。

Historical Data Paints a Grim Picture

歷史數據描繪了一幅嚴峻的畫面

Brandt's analysis is rooted in historical data, which suggests that Bitcoin's surge in value may have come to an end. He notes that in the previous cycle, Bitcoin soared by a staggering 122x, from its market low to market high between 2015 and 2017. However, this represented only 21.3% of Bitcoin's price increase in the preceding cycle (2011 to 2013).

布蘭特的分析植根於歷史數據，這表明比特幣價值的飆升可能已經結束。他指出，在上一個週期中，比特幣在2015 年至2017 年期間從市場低點飆升至市場高點，飆升了驚人的122 倍。比特幣價格漲幅的21.3%。

Similarly, in the 2018 to 2021 cycle, Bitcoin surged 22x from its market low to market high, but this only accounted for 18% of the price increase witnessed in the previous cycle. Brandt contends that this trend will likely continue in the current cycle, with Bitcoin projected to achieve roughly 20% of the value increase seen in the previous cycle.

同樣，在 2018 年至 2021 年周期中，比特幣從市場低點飆升至市場高點 22 倍，但這僅佔上一周期價格漲幅的 18%。 Brandt 認為，這種趨勢可能會在當前週期中持續下去，而比特幣預計將實現上一周期價值成長的 20% 左右。

Based on this analysis, Brandt estimates that Bitcoin's market high for this cycle would be around $72,723, which is a level the cryptocurrency already surpassed on its way to hitting a new all-time high (ATH) of $73,750.

根據這項分析，Brandt 估計本週期比特幣的市場高點約為 72,723 美元，該加密貨幣在創下 73,750 美元的歷史新高 (ATH) 的過程中已經超越了這一水平。

Exponential Decay: A Potential Blessing in Disguise

指數衰減：因禍得福

While Brandt's analysis suggests a market correction, he also sees a silver lining in the exponential decay. If Bitcoin indeed undergoes a decline to around $30,000 or its 2021 lows, Brandt believes this could be "the most bullish factor that could occur from a long-term view."

雖然布蘭特的分析顯示市場將出現調整，但他也看到了指數衰退的一線希望。 Brandt 認為，如果比特幣確實跌至 30,000 美元左右或 2021 年低點，這可能是「從長期角度來看可能出現的最樂觀的因素」。

Brandt explains that from a classical charting perspective, Bitcoin is still poised for significant parabolic moves to the upside, even if it does not occur immediately. He shares an example of what Bitcoin's chart might look like when this move transpires, with the cryptocurrency rallying above $100,000. Brandt also draws parallels to Gold's chart from August 2020 to March 2024, suggesting a similar pattern could unfold for Bitcoin.

布蘭特解釋說，從經典圖表的角度來看，比特幣仍然準備好大幅上漲，即使它不會立即發生。他分享了一個例子，說明當這一走勢發生時，比特幣的圖表可能會是什麼樣子，加密貨幣將反彈至 10 萬美元以上。布蘭特也與 2020 年 8 月至 2024 年 3 月黃金的圖表進行了比較，顯示比特幣可能會出現類似的模式。

Uncertainty Reigns

不確定性盛行

Despite Brandt's cogent analysis, it is important to note that the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and unpredictable. It remains to be seen whether Bitcoin will follow the exponential decay pattern and experience a substantial correction or if it will defy expectations and continue its upward trajectory.

儘管布蘭特的分析令人信服，但值得注意的是，加密貨幣市場高度波動且不可預測。比特幣是否會遵循指數衰減模式並經歷大幅調整，或者是否會超出預期並繼續其上升軌跡，還有待觀察。

Investors are advised to exercise caution and conduct their own thorough research before making any investment decisions. The cryptocurrency market carries significant risks, and any investments should be made with a full understanding of the potential for loss.

建議投資者在做出任何投資決定之前謹慎行事並進行徹底的研究。加密貨幣市場存在重大風險，任何投資都應在充分了解潛在損失的情況下進行。