比特币重新成为头条新闻，因为意外的美国 - 中国贸易新闻

在意外的美国 - 中国贸易新闻的驱动下，比特币已经超过了86,000美元，这些新闻可能会大大改善投资者的情绪。

Bitcoin (BTC) prices surged past $86,000 on Monday, fueled by unexpected U.S.-China trade news that could be shaping investor sentiment in a big way. But while the bulls are already eyeing the $90K mark, some analysts warn this could also be a classic setup for a market reversal.

周一意外的美国 - 中国贸易新闻推动了比特币（BTC）的价格在86,000美元以上飙升，这可能会大大塑造投资者的情绪。但是，尽管公牛队已经在关注$ 90K的大关，但一些分析师警告说，这也可能是市场逆转的经典设置。

What Happened: Over the weekend, Bitcoin rose 2.41% to reach $85,379 by 08:00 AM ET (12:00 GMT). The increase followed a late-Friday announcement from U.S. Customs and Border Patrol confirming tariff exemptions for major tech imports like smartphones, routers, and select computers. These exemptions fall outside the aggressive 125% tariffs that former President Donald Trump had imposed earlier this month.

发生了什么：在周末，比特币上涨了2.41％，达到85,379美元，到了美国东部时间上午08:00（格林尼治标准时间12:00）。在美国海关和边境巡逻队的周末公告之后，这一增加了，确认了智能手机，路由器和精选计算机等主要技术进口的关税豁免。这些豁免不超出前总统唐纳德·特朗普本月初对125％的侵略性125％的关税。

As CN Wire reports, it’s still unclear whether all smartphones will escape other existing levies. But the move marks a softening tone in the trade war narrative, ultimately putting less inflationary pressure on the market and leading to more optimism around Federal Reserve rate cuts. And of course, with the focus on risk assets, the crypto sphere is also likely to see a build-up of cash flows.

正如CN Wire所报告的那样，目前尚不清楚所有智能手机是否会逃脱其他现有税款。但是此举标志着贸易战争叙事中的柔和语调，最终给市场带来了较小的通货膨胀压力，并使对美联储削减速度的乐观情绪更加乐观。当然，在关注风险资产的情况下，加密货币领域也可能会看到现金流量的积累。

Market intelligence firm Santiment captured the moment in a post on X, formerly Twitter, over the weekend, stating:“Trump’s weekend tariff exemptions have led to an instant crypto market rise… Bitcoin has already hit a high of $85.9K.”

市场情报公司Santiment在周末的X帖子（以前为Twitter）的帖子中捕捉到：“特朗普的周末关税豁免导致立即加密市场上升……比特币已经达到了85.9万美元的高价。”

However, despite the price rally, U.S.-based Bitcoin ETFs saw massive outflows leading into the weekend. According to data from Farside Investors, three major Bitcoin ETFs—iShares (NYSE:IVZ) Bitcoin Strategy ETF (NYSE:IBTC), Invesco (NYSE:IVR) Bitcoin Trust ETF (NYSE:BITO), and Coinshares Physical Bitcoin (BTC) -€” saw a collective outflow of $707.9 million over the past week.

然而，尽管有价格集会，但总部位于美国的比特币ETF仍在周末出现大量流出。根据Farside Investors的数据，三个主要的比特币ETF -Ishares（NYSE：IVZ）比特币策略ETF（NYSE：IBTC），Invesco（NYSE：IVR）比特币信任ETF（NYSE：BITO：BITO）和COINSHARES（Coinshares（BTC） - 企业比特币（BTC） - 过去一周的collective Outsive Outsive Outsive Out flow of 70070707.707077.7077.707.707.707.707.707.707.707.707.707.707.707.707。

“In total, $707.9 million flowed out of U.S. BTC ETFs last week. Although outflows slowed to just $1 million by April 11, this divergence raises questions: Is this rally sustainable, or is smart money exiting early?” the firm added.

“总共7.079亿美元从上周的美国BTC ETF中流出。尽管流出速度放慢到4月11日，但这种差异提出了问题：这种集会可持续性是可持续的吗，还是聪明的钱早日退出？”公司补充说。

While futures markets saw inflows of $1.7 billion, suggesting some optimism, ETF flows remain one of the most reliable indicators of long-term market direction—and right now, they’re flashing a warning.

尽管期货市场的流入为17亿美元，这表明有些乐观，但ETF流仍然是长期市场方向最可靠的指标之一，而目前，他们正在闪烁警告。

Where Next For Bitcoin?

比特币的下一步？

Analysts are now keeping an eye on two key scenarios for Bitcoin. A bullish continuation could be triggered by further tariff easing, improving U.S. economic indicators like April’s Consumer Price Index and employment data, progress on the Bitcoin Act, and renewed ETF inflows. This scenario could push Bitcoin towards $90,000, setting the stage for a run at the $100K milestone.

分析师现在正在关注比特币的两个关键情况。可能会通过进一步的征收税率来触发看涨的延续，从而改善了美国的经济指标，例如April的消费者价格指数和就业数据，《比特币法》的进展以及ETF的新ETF流入。这种情况可能会将比特币推向90,000美元，这使得竞选以10万美元的里程碑为基础。

But a bearish reversal could arise from renewed trade war tensions, disappointing macro data like March’s retail sales report and April’s CPI, or further ETF outflows. This scenario might send Bitcoin back towards $70,000, with crucial support levels at $80,000 and $76,660.

但是，看跌的逆转可能是由于新的贸易战争紧张局势，令人失望的宏观数据，例如3月的零售报告和4月的CPI，或者进一步的ETF流出。这种情况可能会使比特币回到70,000美元，关键支持水平为80,000美元和76,660美元。

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin remains below its 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), typically bearish territory. A break above $86,263 would signal strength and open the door to $90,742, a crucial resistance level. But failure to hold $85,000 could quickly trigger a slide towards $80,000.

从技术的角度来看，比特币仍低于其50天和200天的指数移动平均值（EMAS），通常是看跌领域。超过$ 86,263的休息时间将信号强度，并打开$ 90,742的门，这是一个关键的阻力水平。但是，如果不持有$ 85,000，可能会迅速触发滑梯至80,000美元。

The sharp rally in Bitcoin on trade relief news has caught markets off guard, especially given the recent pessimistic outlooks from economists like Paul Krugman. While the excitement is real, the backdrop is anything but stable. With ETF outflows lingering, rate cut bets still uncertain, and regulatory oversights like the Bitcoin Act still in flux, this may not be the all-clear signal bulls are hoping for.

比特币贸易救济新闻的急剧集会使市场措手不及，尤其是考虑到保罗·克鲁格曼（Paul Krugman）等经济学家最近的悲观前景。虽然兴奋是真实的，但背景是什么稳定的。随着ETF流出挥之不去的挥之不去，降低赌注仍然不确定，并且像比特币法案（Bitcoin Act）的调节监督仍处于不断变化状态，这可能并不是公牛所希望的全明确信号。

The next few days will be critical as traders keep an eye on the crucial $90,000 level. If Bitcoin manages to break through this resistance, the momentum could really take over. But if the price fails to sustain above $85,000, then the market may have just witnessed another bull trap disguised as a breakout.

接下来的几天将至关重要，因为交易者关注至关重要的90,000美元。如果比特币设法突破了这种阻力，那么这种动力就可以真正接管。但是，如果价格无法维持85,000美元以上，那么市场可能只是目睹了另一个伪装成突破的牛陷阱。