比特币减半：技术里程碑，价格影响不确定

4 月 19 日，比特币经历了“减半”，降低了新代币的创建速度。这一事件引发了不同的反应：狂热者预计稀缺性和价值会增加，而怀疑者则认为这是一种抬高价格的投机行为。此次减半是在监管批准和市场波动等因素的支持下，比特币最近飙升至历史新高。

Bitcoin Halving: A Technical Milestone with Uncertain Price Implications

比特币减半：价格影响不确定的技术里程碑

On Friday, April 19th, Bitcoin, the world's preeminent cryptocurrency, underwent a significant event known as a "halving." This phenomenon, occurring approximately every four years, marks a fundamental change in the cryptocurrency's underlying technology.

4 月 19 日星期五，世界上最重要的加密货币比特币经历了一场被称为“减半”的重大事件。这种现象大约每四年发生一次，标志着加密货币底层技术的根本性变化。

The halving was implemented into Bitcoin's code by its pseudonymous creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, as a way to control the rate at which new bitcoins are created. Essentially, it reduces the reward received by cryptocurrency miners, who verify transactions and create new blocks on the Bitcoin blockchain.

减半是由其匿名创建者中本聪（Satoshi Nakamoto）在比特币代码中实现的，作为控制新比特币创建速度的一种方式。从本质上讲，它减少了加密货币矿工收到的奖励，他们验证交易并在比特币区块链上创建新区块。

Chris Gannatti, Global Head of Research at WisdomTree, an asset manager specializing in Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, described the halving as "one of the biggest events in crypto this year." Crypto enthusiasts often view the halving as an affirmation of Bitcoin's value as a scarce commodity, with its maximum supply capped at 21 million tokens.

专注于比特币交易所交易基金的资产管理公司 WisdomTree 全球研究主管 Chris Gannatti 将减半描述为“今年加密货币领域最大的事件之一”。加密货币爱好者通常将减半视为对比特币作为稀缺商品价值的肯定，其最大供应量上限为 2100 万个代币。

However, skeptics dismiss the halving as merely a technical change that has been hyped by speculators to inflate Bitcoin's price. The halving is part of a broader trend in Bitcoin's recent performance.

然而，怀疑论者认为减半仅仅是投机者炒作的技术变化，以抬高比特币的价格。减半是比特币近期表现更广泛趋势的一部分。

In March, Bitcoin surged to an all-time high of $73,803.25, but has since retreated. On the day of the halving, Bitcoin remained relatively stable, experiencing a slight dip of 0.5% to approximately $63,747.

3 月份，比特币飙升至 73,803.25 美元的历史新高，但此后有所回落。减半当天，比特币保持相对稳定，小幅下跌 0.5%，至约 63,747 美元。

The cryptocurrency market has been buoyed by positive developments such as the US Securities and Exchange Commission's approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in January and expectations of central banks reducing interest rates. However, geopolitical tensions and concerns over rising interest rates have overshadowed the market in recent weeks.

加密货币市场受到积极发展的提振，例如美国证券交易委员会在一月份批准现货比特币交易所交易基金以及央行降息的预期。然而，地缘政治紧张局势和对利率上升的担忧最近几周给市场蒙上了阴影。

Previous halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020 were followed by price rallies, prompting some crypto enthusiasts to predict a similar trend this time. However, analysts remain cautious, citing factors such as Bitcoin's overbought status and subdued venture capital funding in the crypto industry.

此前在 2012 年、2016 年和 2020 年的减半之后，价格都出现上涨，促使一些加密货币爱好者预测这次也会出现类似的趋势。然而，分析师仍保持谨慎态度，理由是比特币超买状态和加密行业风险投资资金疲软等因素。

JP Morgan analysts believe that Bitcoin's price may not experience significant gains after the halving, as the event has already been factored into its current market value. They anticipate a potential decline in Bitcoin's price due to its overbought condition and the pessimistic venture capital outlook.

摩根大通分析师认为，比特币价格在减半后可能不会出现大幅上涨，因为该事件已经计入其当前市值。他们预计，由于比特币超买状况和悲观的风险投资前景，比特币价格可能会下跌。

Financial regulators have consistently warned of Bitcoin's high-risk nature and limited real-world applications. Despite these concerns, several regulatory bodies have begun to approve Bitcoin-linked trading products.

金融监管机构一直警告比特币的高风险性质和有限的现实应用。尽管存在这些担忧，一些监管机构已开始批准与比特币相关的交易产品。

Andrew O'Neill, a crypto analyst at S&P Global, expressed skepticism regarding the price prediction implications of previous halvings. He emphasized that the halving is just one factor among many that can influence Bitcoin's price.

标准普尔全球加密货币分析师安德鲁·奥尼尔对之前减半的价格预测影响表示怀疑。他强调，减半只是影响比特币价格的众多因素之一。

As Bitcoin navigates the post-halving landscape, its direction remains uncertain. Geopolitical tensions and expectations of prolonged high-interest rates continue to cast a shadow over global markets, affecting Bitcoin's performance. The cryptocurrency's future trajectory will be shaped by a complex interplay of factors, including investor sentiment, regulatory developments, and macroeconomic conditions.

随着比特币在减半后的格局中前进，其方向仍然不确定。地缘政治紧张局势和长期高利率的预期继续给全球市场蒙上阴影，影响比特币的表现。加密货币的未来轨迹将由投资者情绪、监管发展和宏观经济条件等复杂的相互作用决定。