比特币减半和符文：塑造序数和 BRC-20 的命运

尽管比特币即将减半并引入 Runes 代币协议，但 Ordinal 铭文和 BRC-20 代币将不受影响。 Ordinals 的需求激增，超过了以太坊，Ordinal 收藏品承诺符文代币掉落，人们的兴趣不断增加。由 Ordinal 发明者 Casey Rodarmor 开发的符文协议可能会影响比特币经济，可能会增加 Ordinal 铭文的成本并增加对现有藏品的需求。然而，一些人认为，高额费用可能会限制基于比特币的代币的大规模采用，这表明比特币网络上将转向专有的高端资产。

Bitcoin's Halving and the Dawn of Runes: Implications for the Ordinals and BRC-20 Ecosystem

比特币减半和符文的黎明：对序数和 BRC-20 生态系统的影响

As the impending Bitcoin halving draws near, alongside the launch of the revolutionary Runes fungible token standard, collectors and enthusiasts in the Bitcoin ecosystem are grappling with a series of questions:

随着即将到来的比特币减半的临近，以及革命性的符文可互换代币标准的推出，比特币生态系统中的收藏家和爱好者正在努力解决一系列问题：

Firstly, what impact will these developments have on the increasingly popular Ordinals inscriptions on the Bitcoin blockchain? Secondly, how will the emergence of BRC-20 fungible tokens built upon the Ordinals protocol affect the dynamics of this rapidly evolving landscape?

首先，这些发展将对比特币区块链上日益流行的序数铭文产生什么影响？其次，基于 Ordinals 协议构建的 BRC-20 可替代代币的出现将如何影响这一快速发展的格局的动态？

The Halving and the Fate of On-Chain Assets

减半与链上资产的命运

Unlike the Ethereum "merge" transition witnessed in late 2022, the upcoming Bitcoin halving does not pose any concerns for the well-being of on-chain Bitcoin assets. The halving refers solely to the quadrennial reduction in mining rewards, a measure designed to slow the influx of new BTC into circulation. Historically, this event has often triggered an upward surge in Bitcoin's price.

与 2022 年底见证的以太坊“合并”转型不同，即将到来的比特币减半不会对链上比特币资产的健康造成任何担忧。减半仅指挖矿奖励每四年减少一次，这是一项旨在减缓新比特币流入流通的措施。从历史上看，这一事件经常引发比特币价格的上涨。

Therefore, the Bitcoin network will continue to produce blocks as usual, ensuring that both Ordinals inscriptions and BRC-20 tokens remain safely stored within user wallets. No specific actions are required to safeguard these assets.

因此，比特币网络将继续像往常一样生成区块，确保 Ordinals 铭文和 BRC-20 代币安全地存储在用户钱包中。无需采取任何具体行动来保护这些资产。

Demand and the Future of Bitcoin-Related Assets

比特币相关资产的需求和未来

A more pressing question revolves around the demand for Bitcoin-related assets and the potential impact of the Runes protocol's launch on the popularity of BRC-20 tokens.

一个更紧迫的问题围绕着比特币相关资产的需求以及 Runes 协议的推出对 BRC-20 代币受欢迎程度的潜在影响。

Ordinals have experienced an unprecedented surge in demand in recent months, eclipsing long-standing NFT leader Ethereum in terms of trading volume. This shift has propelled cross-chain marketplace Magic Eden to the forefront, while Ordinals collections promising upcoming Runes token drops have witnessed a significant spike in value. Examples include the Runestone collection.

近几个月来，Ordinals 的需求出现了前所未有的激增，交易量超过了长期以来的 NFT 领导者以太坊。这一转变将跨链市场 Magic Eden 推向了前沿，而承诺即将推出 Runes 代币掉落的 Ordinals 系列则见证了价值的大幅飙升。例子包括符石收藏。

Anticipating the release of Runes, DappRadar's Senior Communications Manager Robert Hoogendoorn speculates that Ordinals and other Bitcoin-based assets may benefit from projected long-term increases in BTC's price. "Just as the halving is likely to increase the price and, therefore, demand for BTC in the long run," he observes, "I also expect demand for Bitcoin assets, like Ordinals, to increase."

DappRadar 的高级通讯经理 Robert Hoogendoorn 预计 Runes 的发布，推测 Ordinals 和其他基于比特币的资产可能会受益于 BTC 价格的预计长期上涨。他表示：“正如减半可能会提高价格，从而提高对 BTC 的长期需求一样，我也预计对 Ordinals 等比特币资产的需求也会增加。”

The Rise and Fall of BRC-20 Tokens

BRC-20 代币的兴衰

In contrast to the bullish sentiment surrounding Ordinals, BRC-20 tokens have experienced a cooling of demand. Notable examples like ORDI and SATS have suffered substantial losses in value, significantly outpacing the decline in Bitcoin's price and eclipsing the losses incurred by many other cryptocurrencies.

与 Ordinals 的看涨情绪相反，BRC-20 代币的需求却出现了降温。 ORDI 和 SATS 等著名例子遭受了巨大的价值损失，其跌幅远远超过了比特币价格的跌幅，并且超过了许多其他加密货币所造成的损失。

Runes: A New Era of Bitcoin Assets

符文：比特币资产的新时代

The Runes protocol not only promises a more efficient implementation of Bitcoin-based tokens but also boasts an additional advantage: its development by Casey Rodarmor, the innovator behind the Ordinals protocol. While BRC-20 was an experimental token standard built upon his protocol, Runes carries Rodarmor's imprimatur, which holds significant sway among collectors and investors.

Runes 协议不仅承诺更有效地实现基于比特币的代币，而且还拥有一个额外的优势：它是由 Ordinals 协议背后的创新者 Casey Rodarmor 开发的。虽然 BRC-20 是一个基于其协议的实验性代币标准，但 Runes 得到了 Rodarmor 的认可，在收藏家和投资者中具有重大影响力。

"It's his vision of how he's seeing this come together," explains Elizabeth Olson, head of growth at Bitcoin wallet startup Xverse. "Obviously, Ordinals have been a huge success, so I would imagine that Runes will be just as big, if not bigger, than BRC-20 tokens."

“这是他如何看待这一切的愿景，”比特币钱包初创公司 Xverse 的增长主管伊丽莎白·奥尔森 (Elizabeth Olson) 解释道。 “显然，Ordinals 取得了巨大成功，因此我认为 Runes 将会与 BRC-20 代币一样大，甚至更大。”

Runes and the Future of the Bitcoin Network

符文和比特币网络的未来

However, the advent of Runes could potentially reshape Bitcoin's economic landscape and introduce new assets to the network, with implications that could be either positive or negative depending on one's perspective.

然而，符文的出现可能会重塑比特币的经济格局，并向网络引入新的资产，其影响可能是积极的，也可能是消极的，具体取决于个人的观点。

The anticipated launch of Runes has generated immense anticipation, with various projects vying to be among the first to mint tokens on the platform. This heightened demand is likely to drive up the cost of using the network for some time to come.

Runes 的预期推出引起了巨大的期待，各个项目都竞相成为第一批在该平台上铸造代币的项目。这种需求的增加可能会在未来一段时间内推高网络使用成本。

"The release of the Runes protocol at the halving will lead to a period of sustained high fees on Bitcoin," remarks Leonidas, a pseudonymous NFT historian and co-creator of the Runestone project. "This will affect the Ordinals protocol in several ways. Because it will be more expensive to inscribe files on-chain, artists will have to become more clever about how they use file space."

匿名 NFT 历史学家、 Runestone 项目联合创始人 Leonidas 表示：“减半时 Runes 协议的发布将导致比特币进入一段持续高额费用的时期。” “这将以多种方式影响 Ordinals 协议。由于将文件写入链上会更加昂贵，因此艺术家必须更加聪明地了解如何使用文件空间。”

Scarcity and Value

稀缺性与价值

This increase in transaction costs could result in a reduction in the number of new Ordinals projects deployed on Bitcoin, while simultaneously driving up the prices of existing collections. "The increased cost associated with dropping a collection will also induce scarcity amongst the existing collections," Leonidas adds. "Existing collections will not need to compete as much for mindshare with new mints—because there just won't be as many."

交易成本的增加可能会导致比特币上部署的新 Ordinals 项目数量减少，同时推高现有系列的价格。 “与放弃收藏相关的成本增加也会导致现有收藏的稀缺，”列奥尼达斯补充道。 “现有的系列将不需要与新的铸币厂争夺市场份额，因为数量不会那么多。”

Moreover, the Runes protocol leverages Ordinals to "associate a visual component to every Rune that is etched," providing an additional use case for Ordinals.

此外，符文协议利用序数“将视觉组件与每个蚀刻的符文相关联”，为序数提供了额外的用例。

Xverse founder and CEO Ken Liao echoes the sentiment that increased fees will impact the Ordinals space, making it "harder and more expensive to create new ones." He also concurs that the broader demand for Bitcoin assets, fueled by the scarcity created by the halving, will have a discernible impact on Ordinals.

Xverse 创始人兼首席执行官 Ken Liao 赞同这样一种观点，即费用增加将影响 Ordinals 领域，使“创建新的更难、更昂贵”。他还同意，减半造成的稀缺性推动了对比特币资产的更广泛需求，将对 Ordinals 产生明显的影响。

The Flip Side: Exclusion and Accessibility

另一面：排斥和可及性

Of course, the potential increase in fees and asset prices also carries a downside: as everything becomes more expensive, Bitcoin assets could become increasingly exclusive.

当然，费用和资产价格的潜在增长也带来了不利的一面：随着一切变得更加昂贵，比特币资产可能会变得越来越排他性。

While this may be seen as advantageous by holders of such assets, it could limit the number of individuals who can afford to participate in this space. However, numerous other blockchains offer significantly lower transaction costs, and Bitcoin layer-2 scaling networks are also emerging.

虽然此类资产的持有者可能认为这是有利的，但它可能会限制有能力参与该领域的个人数量。然而，许多其他区块链的交易成本显着降低，比特币第 2 层扩展网络也正在兴起。

Speculation and Mass Adoption

猜测和大规模采用

"I highly suspect speculators will enjoy the new Runes playground for a while, at the expense of the BRC-20 movement," observes Randy Wasinger, founder and CEO of CryptoSlam. "Ordinals is great for niche, high-end assets that can benefit from the prestige of Bitcoin. But otherwise, I just don't see any Bitcoin-based application achieving sustained mass adoption."

CryptoSlam 创始人兼首席执行官兰迪·瓦辛格 (Randy Wasinger) 表示：“我高度怀疑投机者会暂时享受新的符文游乐场，而以牺牲 BRC-20 运动为代价。” “Ordinals 非常适合可以从比特币的声望中受益的利基、高端资产。但除此之外，我没有看到任何基于比特币的应用程序实现持续的大规模采用。”

Wasinger contends that tokens require movement to thrive and that Bitcoin's high transaction fees will ultimately stifle volume and momentum, regardless of the underlying protocol.

瓦辛格认为，代币需要流动才能蓬勃发展，而无论底层协议如何，比特币的高交易费用最终都会抑制交易量和势头。

In conclusion, the upcoming Bitcoin halving and the launch of the Runes protocol present a complex and multifaceted set of implications for the Ordinals and BRC-20 ecosystems. While the future remains uncertain, one thing is clear: this rapidly evolving landscape will undoubtedly continue to captivate the attention of collectors, investors, and industry observers alike.

总之，即将到来的比特币减半和 Runes 协议的推出对 Ordinals 和 BRC-20 生态系统产生了一系列复杂且多方面的影响。尽管未来仍不确定，但有一点是明确的：这一快速发展的格局无疑将继续吸引收藏家、投资者和行业观察家的注意力。