比特幣減半與符文：塑造序數與 BRC-20 的命運

儘管比特幣即將減半並引入 Runes 代幣協議，但 Ordinal 銘文和 BRC-20 代幣將不受影響。 Ordinals 的需求激增，超過了以太坊，Ordinal 收藏品承諾符文代幣掉落，人們的興趣不斷增加。由 Ordinal 發明者 Casey Rodarmor 開發的符文協議可能會影響比特幣經濟，可能會增加 Ordinal 銘文的成本並增加對現有收藏的需求。然而，有些人認為，高額費用可能會限制基於比特幣的代幣的大規模採用，這表明比特幣網路上將轉向專有的高端資產。

Bitcoin's Halving and the Dawn of Runes: Implications for the Ordinals and BRC-20 Ecosystem

比特幣減半和符文的黎明：對序數和 BRC-20 生態系統的影響

As the impending Bitcoin halving draws near, alongside the launch of the revolutionary Runes fungible token standard, collectors and enthusiasts in the Bitcoin ecosystem are grappling with a series of questions:

隨著即將到來的比特幣減半的臨近，以及革命性的符文可互換代幣標準的推出，比特幣生態系統中的收藏家和愛好者正在努力解決一系列問題：

Firstly, what impact will these developments have on the increasingly popular Ordinals inscriptions on the Bitcoin blockchain? Secondly, how will the emergence of BRC-20 fungible tokens built upon the Ordinals protocol affect the dynamics of this rapidly evolving landscape?

首先，這些發展將對比特幣區塊鏈上日益普及的序數銘文產生什麼影響？其次，基於 Ordinals 協議構建的 BRC-20 可替代代幣的出現將如何影響這一快速發展的格局的動態？

The Halving and the Fate of On-Chain Assets

減半與鏈上資產的命運

Unlike the Ethereum "merge" transition witnessed in late 2022, the upcoming Bitcoin halving does not pose any concerns for the well-being of on-chain Bitcoin assets. The halving refers solely to the quadrennial reduction in mining rewards, a measure designed to slow the influx of new BTC into circulation. Historically, this event has often triggered an upward surge in Bitcoin's price.

與 2022 年底見證的以太坊「合併」轉型不同，即將到來的比特幣減半不會對鏈上比特幣資產的健康造成任何擔憂。減半僅指挖礦獎勵每四年減少一次，這是一項旨在減緩新比特幣流入流通的措施。從歷史上看，這一事件經常引發比特幣價格的上漲。

Therefore, the Bitcoin network will continue to produce blocks as usual, ensuring that both Ordinals inscriptions and BRC-20 tokens remain safely stored within user wallets. No specific actions are required to safeguard these assets.

因此，比特幣網路將繼續像往常一樣生成區塊，確保 Ordinals 銘文和 BRC-20 代幣安全地儲存在用戶錢包中。無需採取任何具體行動來保護這些資產。

Demand and the Future of Bitcoin-Related Assets

比特幣相關資產的需求與未來

A more pressing question revolves around the demand for Bitcoin-related assets and the potential impact of the Runes protocol's launch on the popularity of BRC-20 tokens.

一個更迫切的問題圍繞著比特幣相關資產的需求以及 Runes 協議的推出對 BRC-20 代幣受歡迎程度的潛在影響。

Ordinals have experienced an unprecedented surge in demand in recent months, eclipsing long-standing NFT leader Ethereum in terms of trading volume. This shift has propelled cross-chain marketplace Magic Eden to the forefront, while Ordinals collections promising upcoming Runes token drops have witnessed a significant spike in value. Examples include the Runestone collection.

近幾個月來，Ordinals 的需求出現了前所未有的激增，交易量超過了長期以來的 NFT 領導者以太坊。這一轉變將跨鏈市場 Magic Eden 推向了前沿，而承諾即將推出 Runes 代幣掉落的 Ordinals 系列則見證了價值的大幅飆升。例子包括符石收藏。

Anticipating the release of Runes, DappRadar's Senior Communications Manager Robert Hoogendoorn speculates that Ordinals and other Bitcoin-based assets may benefit from projected long-term increases in BTC's price. "Just as the halving is likely to increase the price and, therefore, demand for BTC in the long run," he observes, "I also expect demand for Bitcoin assets, like Ordinals, to increase."

DappRadar 的高級通訊經理 Robert Hoogendoorn 預計 Runes 的發布，推測 Ordinals 和其他基於比特幣的資產可能會受益於 BTC 價格的預期長期上漲。他表示：“正如減半可能會提高價格，從而提高對 BTC 的長期需求一樣，我也預計對 Ordinals 等比特幣資產的需求也會增加。”

The Rise and Fall of BRC-20 Tokens

BRC-20 代幣的興衰

In contrast to the bullish sentiment surrounding Ordinals, BRC-20 tokens have experienced a cooling of demand. Notable examples like ORDI and SATS have suffered substantial losses in value, significantly outpacing the decline in Bitcoin's price and eclipsing the losses incurred by many other cryptocurrencies.

與 Ordinals 的看漲情緒相反，BRC-20 代幣的需求卻出現了降溫。 ORDI 和 SATS 等著名例子遭受了巨大的價值損失，其跌幅遠遠超過了比特幣價格的跌幅，並且超過了許多其他加密貨幣所造成的損失。

Runes: A New Era of Bitcoin Assets

符文：比特幣資產的新時代

The Runes protocol not only promises a more efficient implementation of Bitcoin-based tokens but also boasts an additional advantage: its development by Casey Rodarmor, the innovator behind the Ordinals protocol. While BRC-20 was an experimental token standard built upon his protocol, Runes carries Rodarmor's imprimatur, which holds significant sway among collectors and investors.

Runes 協議不僅承諾更有效地實現基於比特幣的代幣，而且還擁有一個額外的優勢：它是由 Ordinals 協議背後的創新者 Casey Rodarmor 開發的。雖然 BRC-20 是一個基於其協議的實驗性代幣標準，但 Runes 得到了 Rodarmor 的認可，在收藏家和投資者中具有重大影響力。

"It's his vision of how he's seeing this come together," explains Elizabeth Olson, head of growth at Bitcoin wallet startup Xverse. "Obviously, Ordinals have been a huge success, so I would imagine that Runes will be just as big, if not bigger, than BRC-20 tokens."

「這是他如何看待這一切的願景，」比特幣錢包新創公司 Xverse 的成長主管 Elizabeth Olson 解釋道。 “顯然，Ordinals 取得了巨大成功，因此我認為 Runes 將與 BRC-20 代幣一樣大，甚至更大。”

Runes and the Future of the Bitcoin Network

符文和比特幣網路的未來

However, the advent of Runes could potentially reshape Bitcoin's economic landscape and introduce new assets to the network, with implications that could be either positive or negative depending on one's perspective.

然而，符文的出現可能會重塑比特幣的經濟格局，並向網路引入新的資產，其影響可能是正面的，也可能是負面的，這取決於個人的觀點。

The anticipated launch of Runes has generated immense anticipation, with various projects vying to be among the first to mint tokens on the platform. This heightened demand is likely to drive up the cost of using the network for some time to come.

Runes 的預期推出引起了巨大的期待，各個項目都競相成為第一批在該平台上鑄造代幣的項目。這種需求的增加可能會在未來一段時間內推高網路使用成本。

"The release of the Runes protocol at the halving will lead to a period of sustained high fees on Bitcoin," remarks Leonidas, a pseudonymous NFT historian and co-creator of the Runestone project. "This will affect the Ordinals protocol in several ways. Because it will be more expensive to inscribe files on-chain, artists will have to become more clever about how they use file space."

匿名 NFT 歷史學家、 Runestone 項目聯合創始人 Leonidas 表示：“減半時 Runes 協議的發布將導致比特幣進入持續高額費用的時期。” 「這將以多種方式影響 Ordinals 協議。由於將文件寫入鏈上會更加昂貴，因此藝術家必須更加聰明地了解如何使用文件空間。”

Scarcity and Value

稀缺性與價值

This increase in transaction costs could result in a reduction in the number of new Ordinals projects deployed on Bitcoin, while simultaneously driving up the prices of existing collections. "The increased cost associated with dropping a collection will also induce scarcity amongst the existing collections," Leonidas adds. "Existing collections will not need to compete as much for mindshare with new mints—because there just won't be as many."

交易成本的增加可能會導致比特幣上部署的新 Ordinals 項目數量減少，同時推高現有系列的價格。 「與放棄收藏相關的成本增加也會導致現有收藏的稀缺，」列奧尼達斯補充道。 “現有的系列將不需要與新的鑄幣廠爭奪市場份額，因為數量不會那麼多。”

Moreover, the Runes protocol leverages Ordinals to "associate a visual component to every Rune that is etched," providing an additional use case for Ordinals.

此外，符文協定利用序數“將視覺組件與每個蝕刻的符文相關聯”，為序數提供了額外的用例。

Xverse founder and CEO Ken Liao echoes the sentiment that increased fees will impact the Ordinals space, making it "harder and more expensive to create new ones." He also concurs that the broader demand for Bitcoin assets, fueled by the scarcity created by the halving, will have a discernible impact on Ordinals.

Xverse 創辦人兼執行長 Ken Liao 同意這樣一種觀點，即費用增加將影響 Ordinals 領域，使「創造新的更難、更昂貴」。他也同意，減半造成的稀缺性推動了對比特幣資產的更廣泛需求，將對 Ordinals 產生明顯的影響。

The Flip Side: Exclusion and Accessibility

另一面：排斥與可及性

Of course, the potential increase in fees and asset prices also carries a downside: as everything becomes more expensive, Bitcoin assets could become increasingly exclusive.

當然，費用和資產價格的潛在成長也帶來了不利的一面：隨著一切變得更加昂貴，比特幣資產可能會變得越來越排他性。

While this may be seen as advantageous by holders of such assets, it could limit the number of individuals who can afford to participate in this space. However, numerous other blockchains offer significantly lower transaction costs, and Bitcoin layer-2 scaling networks are also emerging.

雖然此類資產的持有者可能認為這是有利的，但它可能會限制有能力參與該領域的個人數量。然而，許多其他區塊鏈的交易成本顯著降低，比特幣第 2 層擴展網路也正在興起。

Speculation and Mass Adoption

猜測和大規模採用

"I highly suspect speculators will enjoy the new Runes playground for a while, at the expense of the BRC-20 movement," observes Randy Wasinger, founder and CEO of CryptoSlam. "Ordinals is great for niche, high-end assets that can benefit from the prestige of Bitcoin. But otherwise, I just don't see any Bitcoin-based application achieving sustained mass adoption."

CryptoSlam 創始人兼首席執行官 Randy Wasinger 表示：“我高度懷疑投機者會暫時享受新的符文遊樂場，而以犧牲 BRC-20 運動為代價。” “Ordinals 非常適合可以從比特幣的聲望中受益的利基、高端資產。但除此之外，我沒有看到任何基於比特幣的應用程式實現持續的大規模採用。”

Wasinger contends that tokens require movement to thrive and that Bitcoin's high transaction fees will ultimately stifle volume and momentum, regardless of the underlying protocol.

瓦辛格認為，代幣需要流動才能蓬勃發展，無論底層協議如何，比特幣的高交易費用最終都會抑制交易量和勢頭。

In conclusion, the upcoming Bitcoin halving and the launch of the Runes protocol present a complex and multifaceted set of implications for the Ordinals and BRC-20 ecosystems. While the future remains uncertain, one thing is clear: this rapidly evolving landscape will undoubtedly continue to captivate the attention of collectors, investors, and industry observers alike.

總而言之，即將到來的比特幣減半和 Runes 協議的推出對 Ordinals 和 BRC-20 生態系統產生了一系列複雜且多方面的影響。儘管未來仍不確定，但有一點是明確的：這個快速發展的格局無疑將繼續吸引收藏家、投資者和產業觀察家的注意。