比特币减半：地缘政治风险中比特币价格可能飙升 45 万美元

比特币减半事件预计将于本周发生，分析师预测其价格可能会飙升。历史规律表明，一年内可能会上涨至 45 万美元，但分析师警告称，由于全球不稳定，包括以色列和伊朗之间的紧张局势，未来几周可能会出现“残酷”的情况。尽管减半事件的性质众所周知，但需要强调的是，市场效率和公众意识可能无法完全解释其对比特币价格的影响。

Bitcoin's Halving: Surge to $450,000 Possible, but Risks Linger

比特币减半：可能飙升至 45 万美元，但风险依然存在

As the highly anticipated Bitcoin halving event looms this week, analysts are weighing in on its potential impact on the cryptocurrency's price, with some predicting a meteoric rise to $450,000. However, geopolitical tensions and market volatility pose challenges to a sustained bull run.

随着备受期待的比特币减半事件本周临近，分析师正在权衡其对加密货币价格的潜在影响，一些人预测比特币价格将迅速上涨至 45 万美元。然而，地缘政治紧张局势和市场波动对持续牛市构成挑战。

Historical Precedents Point to Bullish Outlook

历史先例表明前景乐观

Noelle Acheson, author of the "Crypto is Macro Now" newsletter, draws inspiration from previous halving cycles, noting that Bitcoin's price has historically surged after these events. Following the 2012 halving, it soared 8,691%, followed by gains of 295% and 559% after the 2016 and 2020 halvings, respectively.

《加密货币现在是宏观的》时事通讯的作者诺埃尔·艾奇逊 (Noelle Acheson) 从之前的减半周期中汲取了灵感，并指出，在这些事件之后，比特币的价格在历史上一直在飙升。 2012 年减半后，股价飙升 8,691%，2016 年和 2020 年减半后分别上涨 295% 和 559%。

Based on these patterns, Acheson projects that Bitcoin could potentially reach $450,000 within a year from the upcoming halving. However, she emphasizes that the current cycle exhibits unique characteristics.

根据这些模式，艾奇逊预计，比特币在即将到来的减半后一年内可能会达到 45 万美元。然而，她强调，当前的周期表现出独特的特征。

Unique Aspects of the 2023 Halving

2023 年减半的独特之处

Unlike previous cycles, Bitcoin has already reached a record high before this halving. Traditionally, it has taken over 500 days for the cryptocurrency to set a new record after a halving.

与之前的周期不同，比特币在本次减半之前就已经达到了历史新高。传统上，加密货币在减半后需要 500 多天才能创下新纪录。

"Does that mean the time to the next all-time high will be much shorter than in previous cycles?" questions Acheson. "Could it imply a steeper correction after the event? There's no way to tell, especially with so many other market drivers at work."

“这是否意味着达到下一个历史高点的时间将比之前的周期短得多？”艾奇逊质问。 “这是否意味着事件发生后会出现更大幅度的调整？目前还无法判断，尤其是在还有如此多的其他市场驱动因素在起作用的情况下。”

Le Shi, head of trading at market maker Auros, points to the introduction of new US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds as a factor driving recent price gains.

做市商 Auros 的交易主管 Le Shi 指出，新的美国现货比特币交易所交易基金的推出是推动近期价格上涨的一个因素。

Risks to Consider: Geopolitical Tensions and Inflation

需要考虑的风险：地缘政治紧张局势和通货膨胀

Despite the bullish sentiment, analysts caution that Bitcoin's price rally could be tempered by global instability and persistent inflation. Tensions between Israel and Iran have escalated, and the broader geopolitical landscape remains uncertain.

尽管市场情绪乐观，但分析师警告称，全球不稳定和持续通胀可能会抑制比特币价格上涨。以色列和伊朗之间的紧张局势升级，更广泛的地缘政治格局仍然不确定。

"Global instability and persistent inflation continue to stymie a full-on bull run, with Bitcoin halving pricing in current sentiment and arriving flat," notes Jehan Chu, founder of venture capital firm Kinetic Capital.

风险投资公司 Kinetic Capital 创始人 Jehan Chu 表示：“全球不稳定和持续的通胀继续阻碍全面的牛市，比特币价格在当前情绪下减半并持平。”

Halving Impact Not Fully Priced In

减半影响未完全计入价格

Some analysts have dismissed the notion that the halving will significantly impact the price because it is a well-known event. However, Acheson argues that markets are not always efficient, and not everyone comprehends the supply-side implications of halving.

一些分析师驳斥了减半将对价格产生重大影响的观点，因为这是一个众所周知的事件。然而，艾奇逊认为，市场并不总是有效的，并不是每个人都理解减半对供应方的影响。

"All crypto investors know for sure is the supply side of the halving impact: there will be fewer new BTC entering the market," she explains.

“所有加密货币投资者都清楚地知道减半影响的供应面：进入市场的新比特币将会减少，”她解释道。

Market Movements and Outlook

市场走势与展望

As of this writing, Bitcoin has risen by 3.4% in the past 24 hours, trading at $66,270. Ethereum has also experienced a significant surge, skyrocketing 7.3% to $3,250.

截至撰写本文时，比特币在过去 24 小时内上涨了 3.4%，交易价格为 66,270 美元。以太坊也经历了大幅上涨，飙升 7.3% 至 3,250 美元。

In the days leading up to the halving, analysts will be closely monitoring market movements and geopolitical developments to gauge the potential impact on Bitcoin's price trajectory. While the event holds the promise of a significant price appreciation, the presence of risks should not be overlooked.

在减半前的几天，分析师将密切关注市场走势和地缘政治发展，以评估对比特币价格轨迹的潜在影响。尽管该事件有望导致价格大幅上涨，但风险的存在也不容忽视。