比特幣減半：地緣政治風險中比特幣價格可能飆漲 45 萬美元

比特幣減半事件預計將於本週發生，分析師預測其價格可能會飆升。歷史規律表明，一年內可能會上漲至 45 萬美元，但分析師警告稱，由於全球不穩定，包括以色列和伊朗之間的緊張局勢，未來幾週可能會出現「殘酷」的情況。儘管減半事件的性質眾所周知，但需要強調的是，市場效率和公眾意識可能無法完全解釋其對比特幣價格的影響。

Bitcoin's Halving: Surge to $450,000 Possible, but Risks Linger

比特幣減半：可能飆升至 45 萬美元，但風險依然存在

As the highly anticipated Bitcoin halving event looms this week, analysts are weighing in on its potential impact on the cryptocurrency's price, with some predicting a meteoric rise to $450,000. However, geopolitical tensions and market volatility pose challenges to a sustained bull run.

隨著備受期待的比特幣減半事件本週臨近，分析師正在權衡對加密貨幣價格的潛在影響，有些人預測比特幣價格將迅速上漲至 45 萬美元。然而，地緣政治緊張局勢和市場波動對持續多頭市場構成挑戰。

Historical Precedents Point to Bullish Outlook

歷史先例顯示前景樂觀

Noelle Acheson, author of the "Crypto is Macro Now" newsletter, draws inspiration from previous halving cycles, noting that Bitcoin's price has historically surged after these events. Following the 2012 halving, it soared 8,691%, followed by gains of 295% and 559% after the 2016 and 2020 halvings, respectively.

《加密貨幣現在是宏觀的》時事通訊的作者諾埃爾·艾奇遜(Noelle Acheson) 從之前的減半週期中汲取了靈感，並指出，在這些事件之後，比特幣的價格在歷史上一直在飆升。 2012 年減半後，股價飆漲 8,691%，2016 年和 2020 年減半後分別上漲 295% 和 559%。

Based on these patterns, Acheson projects that Bitcoin could potentially reach $450,000 within a year from the upcoming halving. However, she emphasizes that the current cycle exhibits unique characteristics.

根據這些模式，艾奇遜預計，比特幣在即將到來的減半後一年內可能會達到 45 萬美元。然而，她強調，當前的周期表現出獨特的特徵。

Unique Aspects of the 2023 Halving

2023 年減半的獨特之處

Unlike previous cycles, Bitcoin has already reached a record high before this halving. Traditionally, it has taken over 500 days for the cryptocurrency to set a new record after a halving.

與之前的周期不同，比特幣在本次減半之前就已經達到了歷史新高。傳統上，加密貨幣在減半後需要 500 多天才能創下新紀錄。

"Does that mean the time to the next all-time high will be much shorter than in previous cycles?" questions Acheson. "Could it imply a steeper correction after the event? There's no way to tell, especially with so many other market drivers at work."

“這是否意味著達到下一個歷史高點的時間將比之前的周期短得多？”艾奇遜質問。 “這是否意味著事件發生後會出現更大幅度的調整？目前還無法判斷，尤其是在還有如此多的其他市場驅動因素在起作用的情況下。”

Le Shi, head of trading at market maker Auros, points to the introduction of new US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds as a factor driving recent price gains.

做市商 Auros 的交易主管 Le Shi 指出，新的美國現貨比特幣交易所交易基金的推出是推動近期價格上漲的因素。

Risks to Consider: Geopolitical Tensions and Inflation

需要考慮的風險：地緣政治緊張局勢與通貨膨脹

Despite the bullish sentiment, analysts caution that Bitcoin's price rally could be tempered by global instability and persistent inflation. Tensions between Israel and Iran have escalated, and the broader geopolitical landscape remains uncertain.

儘管市場情緒樂觀，但分析師警告稱，全球不穩定和持續通膨可能會抑制比特幣價格上漲。以色列和伊朗之間的緊張局勢升級，更廣泛的地緣政治格局仍然不確定。

"Global instability and persistent inflation continue to stymie a full-on bull run, with Bitcoin halving pricing in current sentiment and arriving flat," notes Jehan Chu, founder of venture capital firm Kinetic Capital.

創投公司 Kinetic Capital 創辦人 Jehan Chu 表示：“全球不穩定和持續的通膨繼續阻礙全面的牛市，比特幣價格在當前情緒下減半並持平。”

Halving Impact Not Fully Priced In

減半影響未完全計入價格

Some analysts have dismissed the notion that the halving will significantly impact the price because it is a well-known event. However, Acheson argues that markets are not always efficient, and not everyone comprehends the supply-side implications of halving.

一些分析師駁斥了減半將對價格產生重大影響的觀點，因為這是一個眾所周知的事件。然而，艾奇遜認為，市場並不總是有效的，並不是每個人都理解減半對供應方的影響。

"All crypto investors know for sure is the supply side of the halving impact: there will be fewer new BTC entering the market," she explains.

「所有加密貨幣投資者都清楚知道減半影響的供應面：進入市場的新比特幣將會減少，」她解釋道。

Market Movements and Outlook

市場走勢與展望

As of this writing, Bitcoin has risen by 3.4% in the past 24 hours, trading at $66,270. Ethereum has also experienced a significant surge, skyrocketing 7.3% to $3,250.

截至撰寫本文時，比特幣在過去 24 小時內上漲了 3.4%，交易價格為 66,270 美元。以太幣也經歷了大幅上漲，飆升 7.3% 至 3,250 美元。

In the days leading up to the halving, analysts will be closely monitoring market movements and geopolitical developments to gauge the potential impact on Bitcoin's price trajectory. While the event holds the promise of a significant price appreciation, the presence of risks should not be overlooked.

在減半前的幾天，分析師將密切關注市場趨勢和地緣政治發展，以評估對比特幣價格軌蹟的潛在影響。儘管該事件有望導致價格大幅上漲，但風險的存在也不容忽視。