市场波动中比特币减半迫在眉睫

比特币在预期的减半事件之前经历了波动，周三短暂跌破 60,000 美元，但随后在周四上午恢复至 61,688 美元左右。减半最早定于周五进行，涉及新代币供应的减少，这在历史上曾引发价格上涨。然而，人们对减半是否已经被定价的担忧，加上避险投资环境，引发了人们对是否会产生重大直接影响的怀疑。

Bitcoin: Halving Event Approaches Amidst Market Volatility

比特币：市场波动中减半事件临近

The cryptocurrency market is experiencing heightened volatility as the highly anticipated Bitcoin halving event draws near. Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has fluctuated significantly in recent days, briefly dipping below $60,000 on Wednesday before recovering to $61,688 on Thursday morning.

随着备受期待的比特币减半事件的临近，加密货币市场的波动加剧。比特币是市值最大的加密货币，近几天波动较大，周三一度跌破 60,000 美元，周四上午回升至 61,688 美元。

Halving and Its Historical Impact

减半及其历史影响

Halving, an event that occurs every four years, is scheduled to take place as early as Friday. It involves reducing the supply of newly created Bitcoins by half, potentially impacting the token's value. Historically, halving events have coincided with price rallies for Bitcoin. For instance, a year following the May 2020 halving, Bitcoin's price surged by over 545%.

减半是每四年发生一次的事件，预计最早将于周五发生。它涉及将新创建的比特币供应量减少一半，可能会影响代币的价值。从历史上看，减半事件与比特币价格上涨同时发生。例如，2020 年 5 月减半后一年，比特币价格飙升超过 545%。

However, analysts are divided on whether a similar price surge is likely this time around. Bitcoin has already hit a record high in mid-March, and some believe the halving has already been priced into the market.

然而，分析师对于这次是否可能出现类似的价格飙升存在分歧。比特币在三月中旬已经创下历史新高，一些人认为减半已经被市场消化。

Impact of Halving on Bitcoin Prices

减半对比特币价格的影响

Analysts at Bitfinex predict a potential 160% increase in Bitcoin's price in the 12-14 months following the halving, pushing it to an all-time high of $150,000. However, concerns persist about the impact of external factors on the cryptocurrency market, particularly the recent rise in U.S. inflation and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Bitfinex 分析师预测，比特币价格在减半后的 12-14 个月内可能上涨 160%，达到 15 万美元的历史新高。然而，外部因素对加密货币市场影响的担忧依然存在，特别是近期美国通胀上升和中东地缘政治紧张局势。

Bitcoin Mining and Halving

比特币挖矿和减半

Bitcoin mining is an energy-intensive process involving miners using specialized computers to validate transactions on the blockchain and earn a reward in the form of Bitcoins. Halving events reduce the mining reward by half, thereby decreasing the supply of newly created Bitcoins.

比特币挖矿是一个能源密集型过程，矿工使用专用计算机来验证区块链上的交易并获得比特币形式的奖励。减半事件使挖矿奖励减少一半，从而减少了新创建的比特币的供应。

Scarcity and Value

稀缺性与价值

Each halving reinforces the narrative of Bitcoin as not just a currency but a scarce digital asset, akin to digital gold. Ben Zhou, co-founder of Bybit, predicts that the upcoming halving in 2024 will make Bitcoin twice as rare as gold.

每次减半都强化了比特币不仅是一种货币，而且是一种稀缺数字资产，类似于数字黄金的说法。 Bybit联合创始人周本预计，2024年即将到来的减半将使比特币的稀有程度达到黄金的两倍。

Factors Influencing Bitcoin's Price

影响比特币价格的因素

Apart from halving, other factors have contributed to Bitcoin's price movements. The launch of Bitcoin ETFs by traditional asset management firms has attracted billions of dollars, bringing in new investors. Additionally, expectations of interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve could boost risk assets like cryptocurrencies.

除了减半之外，其他因素也影响了比特币的价格走势。传统资产管理公司推出的比特币ETF吸引了数十亿美元，吸引了新的投资者。此外，美联储降息的预期可能会提振加密货币等风险资产。

Volatility and Market Outlook

波动性和市场前景

The upcoming halving event is likely to exacerbate market volatility in the short term. While some analysts expect a price surge, others caution against over-optimism. The overall trend in the cryptocurrency market and the broader financial markets will ultimately determine Bitcoin's price trajectory.

即将到来的减半事件可能会在短期内加剧市场波动。虽然一些分析师预计价格会飙升，但其他分析师则警告不要过度乐观。加密货币市场和更广泛的金融市场的整体趋势将最终决定比特币的价格轨迹。