市場波動中比特幣減半迫在眉睫

比特幣在預期的減半事件之前經歷了波動，週三短暫跌破 60,000 美元，但隨後在周四上午恢復至 61,688 美元左右。減半最早定於週五進行，涉及新代幣供應的減少，這在歷史上曾引發價格上漲。然而，人們對減半是否已被定價的擔憂，加上避險投資環境，引發了人們對是否會產生重大直接影響的懷疑。

Bitcoin: Halving Event Approaches Amidst Market Volatility

比特幣：市場波動中減半事件接近

The cryptocurrency market is experiencing heightened volatility as the highly anticipated Bitcoin halving event draws near. Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has fluctuated significantly in recent days, briefly dipping below $60,000 on Wednesday before recovering to $61,688 on Thursday morning.

隨著備受期待的比特幣減半事件的臨近，加密貨幣市場的波動加劇。比特幣是市值最大的加密貨幣，近幾天波動較大，週三一度跌破 6 萬美元，週四上午回升至 61,688 美元。

Halving and Its Historical Impact

減半及其歷史影響

Halving, an event that occurs every four years, is scheduled to take place as early as Friday. It involves reducing the supply of newly created Bitcoins by half, potentially impacting the token's value. Historically, halving events have coincided with price rallies for Bitcoin. For instance, a year following the May 2020 halving, Bitcoin's price surged by over 545%.

減半是每四年發生一次的事件，預計最快在週五發生。它涉及將新創建的比特幣供應量減少一半，可能會影響代幣的價值。從歷史上看，減半事件與比特幣價格上漲同時發生。例如，2020 年 5 月減半後一年，比特幣價格飆升超過 545%。

However, analysts are divided on whether a similar price surge is likely this time around. Bitcoin has already hit a record high in mid-March, and some believe the halving has already been priced into the market.

然而，分析師對於這次是否可能出現類似的價格飆升存在分歧。比特幣在三月中旬已經創下歷史新高，有些人認為減半已經被市場消化。

Impact of Halving on Bitcoin Prices

減半對比特幣價格的影響

Analysts at Bitfinex predict a potential 160% increase in Bitcoin's price in the 12-14 months following the halving, pushing it to an all-time high of $150,000. However, concerns persist about the impact of external factors on the cryptocurrency market, particularly the recent rise in U.S. inflation and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Bitfinex 分析師預測，比特幣價格在減半後的 12-14 個月內可能上漲 160%，達到 15 萬美元的歷史新高。然而，外部因素對加密貨幣市場影響的擔憂依然存在，特別是近期美國通膨上升和中東地緣政治緊張局勢。

Bitcoin Mining and Halving

比特幣挖礦和減半

Bitcoin mining is an energy-intensive process involving miners using specialized computers to validate transactions on the blockchain and earn a reward in the form of Bitcoins. Halving events reduce the mining reward by half, thereby decreasing the supply of newly created Bitcoins.

比特幣挖礦是一個能源密集型過程，礦工使用專用計算機來驗證區塊鏈上的交易並獲得比特幣形式的獎勵。減半事件使挖礦獎勵減少一半，從而減少了新創建的比特幣的供應。

Scarcity and Value

稀缺性與價值

Each halving reinforces the narrative of Bitcoin as not just a currency but a scarce digital asset, akin to digital gold. Ben Zhou, co-founder of Bybit, predicts that the upcoming halving in 2024 will make Bitcoin twice as rare as gold.

每次減半都強化了比特幣不僅是一種貨幣，而且是一種稀缺數位資產，類似於數位黃金的說法。 Bybit聯合創始人周本預計，2024年即將到來的減半將使比特幣的稀有程度達到黃金的兩倍。

Factors Influencing Bitcoin's Price

影響比特幣價格的因素

Apart from halving, other factors have contributed to Bitcoin's price movements. The launch of Bitcoin ETFs by traditional asset management firms has attracted billions of dollars, bringing in new investors. Additionally, expectations of interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve could boost risk assets like cryptocurrencies.

除了減半之外，其他因素也影響了比特幣的價格走勢。傳統資產管理公司推出的比特幣ETF吸引了數十億美元，吸引了新的投資者。此外，聯準會降息的預期可能會提振加密貨幣等風險資產。

Volatility and Market Outlook

波動性和市場前景

The upcoming halving event is likely to exacerbate market volatility in the short term. While some analysts expect a price surge, others caution against over-optimism. The overall trend in the cryptocurrency market and the broader financial markets will ultimately determine Bitcoin's price trajectory.

即將到來的減半事件可能會在短期內加劇市場波動。雖然一些分析師預計價格會飆升，但其他分析師則警告不要過度樂觀。加密貨幣市場和更廣泛的金融市場的整體趨勢將最終決定比特幣的價格軌跡。