比特币减半即将到来：预定事件将影响市场

比特币将经历“减半”，这是一个预先确定的事件，将给予矿工验证区块链交易的奖励减少 50%。这种减半大约每四年发生一次，旨在减缓新比特币进入市场的供应，从而可能影响其价格。 2020 年 5 月的上一次减半见证了比特币价值的飙升，专家预计在即将到来的减半事件后也会出现类似的趋势。然而，一些人认为，由于加密货币最近的反弹，减半的影响可能很小。

Bitcoin Halving: A Pre-programmed Event with Potential Market Impact

比特币减半：具有潜在市场影响的预编程事件

Within the next two days, Bitcoin is poised to undergo a pivotal event known as a "halving," a pre-determined occurrence that may significantly influence the production and market dynamics of the world's most prominent cryptocurrency.

在接下来的两天内，比特币将经历一个被称为“减半”的关键事件，这是一个预先确定的事件，可能会严重影响世界上最著名的加密货币的生产和市场动态。

Understanding Bitcoin Halving

了解比特币减半

A halving occurs approximately every four years and was meticulously designed by Bitcoin's enigmatic creator, Satoshi Nakamoto. Its purpose is to effectively reduce by half the reward that miners receive for successfully verifying and adding new blocks to the Bitcoin blockchain. Currently, miners are compensated with 6.25 bitcoins for their efforts, equivalent to approximately $402,000 based on the current market price.

减半大约每四年发生一次，是由比特币神秘的创造者中本聪精心设计的。其目的是有效地将矿工因成功验证并向比特币区块链添加新区块而获得的奖励减少一半。目前，矿工的努力获得了 6.25 比特币的补偿，根据当前市场价格，相当于约 402,000 美元。

Following the halving, miners will receive a reduced reward of 3,125 bitcoins for the same task. This reduction in miner compensation is anticipated to diminish the rate at which new bitcoins enter the market, subsequently restricting the supply of the cryptocurrency. Satoshi Nakamoto's protocol limits the total number of bitcoins that can ever exist to 21 million. Over 19.5 million bitcoins have already been mined, leaving less than 1.5 million yet to be created.

减半后，完成相同任务的矿工将获得 3,125 个比特币的减少奖励。矿工报酬的减少预计会降低新比特币进入市场的速度，从而限制加密货币的供应。中本聪的协议将比特币的总数量限制为 2100 万个。超过 1950 万枚比特币已被开采，尚待创造的比特币不足 150 万枚。

Historical Halving Events

历史减半事件

The most recent bitcoin halving transpired in May 2020, when the price of Bitcoin hovered around $8,602. By May 2021, Bitcoin's value had surged almost sevenfold to nearly $57,000.

最近一次比特币减半发生在 2020 年 5 月，当时比特币的价格徘徊在 8,602 美元左右。到 2021 年 5 月，比特币的价值已飙升近七倍，达到近 57,000 美元。

Upcoming Halving

即将到来的减半

The next halving is scheduled to occur sometime on Friday or Saturday of this week. This event is determined by the addition of approximately 210,000 'blocks' to the blockchain during the mining process.

下一次减半预计发生在本周周五或周六的某个时间。该事件是由在挖矿过程中向区块链添加约 210,000 个“区块”决定的。

Potential Price Impact

潜在的价格影响

Opinions vary among experts regarding the impact of the halving on Bitcoin's price. Some believe it will have a negligible effect, reasoning that the cryptocurrency has already experienced a significant rally this year.

对于减半对比特币价格的影响，专家们意见不一。一些人认为其影响可以忽略不计，因为加密货币今年已经经历了大幅上涨。

"Investors, traders, and speculators priced in the halving months ago," stated Nigel Green, CEO of financial services firm deVere Group. "As a result, a significant portion of the positive economic impact was experienced earlier, pushing prices to new record highs last month."

金融服务公司 deVere Group 首席执行官奈杰尔·格林 (Nigel Green) 表示：“投资者、交易员和投机者几个月前就已经定价减半了。” “因此，很大一部分积极的经济影响是在早些时候经历的，推动上个月的价格创下新高。”

However, others maintain that Bitcoin could encounter a setback, particularly in the long term. Ryan Rasmussen, senior crypto research analyst at Bitwise, asserts that growing demand from newly introduced ETFs, coupled with the supply shock caused by the halving, could further drive up Bitcoin's price.

然而，其他人认为比特币可能会遇到挫折，特别是从长远来看。 Bitwise 高级加密货币研究分析师 Ryan Rasmussen 断言，新推出的 ETF 需求不断增长，加上减半造成的供应冲击，可能会进一步推高比特币的价格。

"We expect the price of Bitcoin to perform strongly over the next twelve months," he predicted. Rasmussen has observed some forecasted profits as high as $400,000, but a more "consensus estimate" places the range between $100,000-$175,000.

“我们预计比特币的价格在未来十二个月内将表现强劲，”他预测。 Rasmussen 观察到一些预测利润高达 400,000 美元，但更“一致的估计”将范围在 100,000 美元至 175,000 美元之间。

Impact on Bitcoin Miners

对比特币矿工的影响

Experts anticipate that the halving will exert pressure on miners to enhance their energy efficiency or secure additional capital. A recent research report by Bitwise revealed that total miner revenue declined a month after each of the three previous halvings. However, those figures rebounded significantly after a full year, driven by price increases and the expansion of operations by larger miners.

专家预计，减半将对矿商施加压力，要求其提高能源效率或获得额外资本。 Bitwise 最近的一份研究报告显示，前三次减半后的一个月，矿工总收入均有所下降。然而，在价格上涨和大型矿商业务扩张的推动下，这些数字在全年后大幅反弹。

Time will reveal the fate of mining companies in the aftermath of this imminent halving. Nonetheless, Rasmussen expresses confidence that major players will continue to innovate and utilize technological advancements to improve operational efficiency.

时间将揭示矿业公司在即将到来的减半之后的命运。尽管如此，拉斯穆森表示相信主要参与者将继续创新并利用技术进步来提高运营效率。