尽管夏季低迷，比特币减半可能仍会推动价格飙升

随着比特币减半事件的临近，加密货币交易者预计价格可能会飙升。然而，Coinbase 警告称，减半的时间恰逢加密货币市场和风险资产传统上的疲软时期，可能会阻碍价格的大幅上涨。尽管如此，该交易所观察到越来越多的新买家进入加密货币市场的迹象，并认为逢低买入可能会被积极购买，从而支持价格发现，尽管波动仍在持续。

Bitcoin Halving Looms as Potential Catalyst for Price Surge, Despite Seasonal Headwinds

尽管存在季节性阻力，比特币减半仍将成为价格飙升的潜在催化剂

Amidst the anticipation surrounding Bitcoin's (BTC) impending halving event, cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase provides a tempered outlook, acknowledging the potential for market volatility and the challenges posed by historical seasonal trends.

在围绕比特币 (BTC) 即将发生的减半事件的预期中，加密货币交易所 Coinbase 提供了温和的前景，承认市场波动的潜力以及历史季节性趋势带来的挑战。

Market Dynamics and Halving's Impact

市场动态和减半的影响

Coinbase's April 5 market commentary report suggests that the crypto market requires a compelling narrative to drive prices higher across the board. The upcoming Bitcoin halving, tentatively scheduled for April 20 or 21, could act as a catalyst for price increases. However, this surge must contend with a historically weak period for crypto markets and risk assets.

Coinbase 4 月 5 日的市场评论报告表明，加密货币市场需要一个令人信服的叙述来推动价格全面走高。即将到来的比特币减半（暂定于 4 月 20 日或 21 日）可能会成为价格上涨的催化剂。然而，这种激增必须应对加密货币市场和风险资产的历史疲软时期。

Data from digital asset analytics firm Brave New Coin reveals that Bitcoin has typically exhibited a modest monthly return of approximately 2.7% from June to September since 2011. In contrast, the remaining eight months have averaged a return of nearly 19.3%.

数字资产分析公司 Brave New Coin 的数据显示，自 2011 年以来，比特币从 6 月到 9 月的平均月回报率通常约为 2.7%。相比之下，其余 8 个月的平均回报率接近 19.3%。

Trading Volumes and Investor Appetite

交易量和投资者兴趣

Coinbase additionally highlights a decrease in overall crypto trading volumes as the market searches for a new narrative to drive further growth. Within the past 24 hours, total crypto volume amounted to $61.78 billion, representing a 33.25% decline compared to the previous day, according to CoinMarketCap data.

Coinbase 还强调，随着市场寻找新的叙事来推动进一步增长，总体加密货币交易量有所下降。 CoinMarketCap 数据显示，过去 24 小时内，加密货币总交易量为 617.8 亿美元，较前一天下降 33.25%。

Despite this downturn, the crypto exchange observes positive indicators suggesting a potential influx of new investors entering the crypto market in the long term. Coinbase believes that Bitcoin's growing acceptance as a form of "digital gold" could attract demand from a new segment of investors.

尽管经济低迷，但加密货币交易所观察到的积极指标表明，从长远来看，新投资者可能会涌入加密货币市场。 Coinbase 认为，比特币作为“数字黄金”的一种形式越来越被接受，可能会吸引新的投资者群体的需求。

Currently, Bitcoin's dominance in the overall crypto market stands at 50.6%, reflecting its market capitalization relative to the entire crypto sector, as per CoinStats data. The report notes that investors waiting for price dips to enter the market may find fewer opportunities as more investors become involved.

根据 CoinStats 的数据，目前，比特币在整个加密市场的主导地位为 50.6%，反映了其相对于整个加密行业的市值。报告指出，随着越来越多的投资者参与其中，等待价格下跌进入市场的投资者可能会发现更少的机会。

"As a result, we believe dips are likely to be more aggressively bought versus earlier cycles, while volatility persists throughout price discovery," Coinbase stated.

Coinbase 表示：“因此，我们认为，与早期周期相比，逢低买入可能会更积极，而波动性在整个价格发现过程中持续存在。”

Historical Halving Effects

历史减半效应

Halving events have historically been associated with price spikes in Bitcoin. Following the previous halving event in May 2020, Bitcoin's value surged. Starting at $8,787 during the halving, the cryptocurrency experienced a rally, eventually reaching approximately $69,000 in November 2021.

从历史上看，减半事件与比特币价格飙升有关。继 2020 年 5 月的上一次减半事件之后，比特币的价值飙升。该加密货币在减半期间从 8,787 美元开始，经历了一轮反弹，最终于 2021 年 11 月达到约 69,000 美元。

Legal Developments and Cryptocurrency Regulation

法律发展和加密货币监管

On April 6, Cointelegraph reported that the U.S. Court of Appeals ruled in favor of Coinbase, confirming that the secondary sales of cryptocurrencies on its platform do not violate the Securities Exchange Act. The plaintiffs had argued that Coinbase was offering and selling unregistered securities and violating other provisions of securities laws. However, Coinbase successfully argued that secondary crypto-asset sales did not meet the criteria for securities transactions.

4 月 6 日，Cointelegraph 报道称，美国上诉法院做出了有利于 Coinbase 的裁决，确认其平台上加密货币的二次销售并不违反《证券交易法》。原告辩称，Coinbase 正在发行和销售未经注册的证券，并违反了证券法的其他规定。然而，Coinbase 成功辩称二级加密资产销售不符合证券交易标准。

Conclusion

结论

The Bitcoin halving event is a significant development that could potentially lead to price increases. However, the market's seasonal weakness and other factors create uncertainty. Despite this, Coinbase believes that the crypto market is ripe for growth, with new investors entering the space and a growing acceptance of Bitcoin as a store of value. The halving event will be closely watched as a potential catalyst for further market evolution.

比特币减半事件是一个重大进展，可能会导致价格上涨。然而，市场的季节性疲软和其他因素带来了不确定性。尽管如此，Coinbase 认为，随着新投资者进入该领域，并且越来越多的人接受比特币作为价值储存手段，加密货币市场的增长已经成熟。减半事件将被视为市场进一步演变的潜在催化剂而受到密切关注。