2024 年比特币减半：历史概览

尽管比特币投资者密切关注下一次牛市，但 2024 年减半年标志着 BTC 价格走势的新纪元。

Bitcoin (BTC) investors are eagerly awaiting the next bull market, especially given the significance of 2024 as a halving year. According to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, 285 days have passed since Bitcoin was last in a bull market.

比特币 (BTC) 投资者正在热切等待下一次牛市，特别是考虑到 2024 年是减半年的重要性。 CryptoQuant 首席执行官 Ki Young Ju 表示，距离比特币上次牛市已经过去 285 天了。

This sideways movement could continue for another 14 days, making it the longest sideways trend in any halving year if a breakout fails to occur.

如果突破失败，这种横盘走势可能会再持续 14 天，这将成为减半年中最长的横盘趋势。

Bitcoin Halving Years: A Historical Perspective

比特币减半年：历史视角

The chart shared by CryptoQuant displays the BTC cumulative return index for the halving years 2020 and 2024. Generally, the year following each halving event sees a substantial increase in the Bitcoin price, with the most significant upswings occurring later in the year, such as in Q4 of 2020.

CryptoQuant 分享的图表显示了 2020 年和 2024 年减半年的 BTC 累积回报指数。一般来说，每次减半事件发生后的一年，比特币价格都会大幅上涨，最显着的上涨发生在当年晚些时候，例如2020 年第四季度。

For instance, in 2020, BTC price rose significantly from the period of sideways movements, eventually reaching an all-time high within the same year. However, as indicated by the 2024 line in the chart, Bitcoin's performance has been notably weaker compared to previous halving cycles.

例如，2020年，BTC价格从横盘走势中大幅上涨，最终在当年创下历史新高。然而，如图中 2024 年线所示，与之前的减半周期相比，比特币的表现明显疲软。

Longest Sideways Period in a Halving Year History

减半年历史上最长的横盘期

This data showcases the price returns for Bitcoin in 2024 (blue line) in comparison to previous halving years. This year is still below par; these returns are only marginally above the baseline, especially when contrasted with 2020 (purple line). In past halving years, Q4 was crucial in driving up prices; however, 2024 has yet to experience this surge, leading to the current speculation regarding a bull market.

该数据显示了 2024 年比特币的价格回报（蓝线）与之前减半年份的比较。今年仍低于平均水平；这些回报仅略高于基线，特别是与 2020 年（紫线）相比。在过去的减半年里，第四季度是推高价格的关键；然而，2024 年尚未出现这种飙升，导致目前有关牛市的猜测。

The next two weeks will be pivotal in determining the direction of the BTC price movement. If no uplifts follow this period, this halving year will mark the longest sideways movement in the market and a new state for the market. Investors are closely monitoring to see if Bitcoin's historical trend will continue or be disrupted this cycle.

未来两周对于确定 BTC 价格走势至关重要。如果在此期间没有出现上涨，那么今年减半将标志着市场最长的横向波动以及市场的新状态。投资者正在密切关注比特币的历史趋势是会延续还是会在本周期被扰乱。