2024 年比特幣減半：歷史概覽

儘管比特幣投資者密切關注下一次牛市，但 2024 年減半年標誌著 BTC 價格走勢的新紀元。

Bitcoin (BTC) investors are eagerly awaiting the next bull market, especially given the significance of 2024 as a halving year. According to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, 285 days have passed since Bitcoin was last in a bull market.

比特幣 (BTC) 投資者正在熱切等待下一次牛市，特別是考慮到 2024 年是減半年的重要性。 CryptoQuant 執行長 Ki Young Ju 表示，距離比特幣上次多頭市場已經過了 285 天。

This sideways movement could continue for another 14 days, making it the longest sideways trend in any halving year if a breakout fails to occur.

如果突破失敗，這種橫盤走勢可能會再持續 14 天，這將成為減半年中最長的橫盤趨勢。

Bitcoin Halving Years: A Historical Perspective

比特幣減半年：歷史視角

The chart shared by CryptoQuant displays the BTC cumulative return index for the halving years 2020 and 2024. Generally, the year following each halving event sees a substantial increase in the Bitcoin price, with the most significant upswings occurring later in the year, such as in Q4 of 2020.

CryptoQuant 分享的圖表顯示了2020 年和2024 年減半年的BTC 累積報酬指數。晚些時候，例如2020 年第四季。

For instance, in 2020, BTC price rose significantly from the period of sideways movements, eventually reaching an all-time high within the same year. However, as indicated by the 2024 line in the chart, Bitcoin's performance has been notably weaker compared to previous halving cycles.

例如，2020年，BTC價格從橫盤走勢中大幅上漲，最終在當年創下歷史新高。然而，如圖 2024 年線所示，與先前的減半週期相比，比特幣的表現明顯疲軟。

Longest Sideways Period in a Halving Year History

減半年史上最長的橫盤期

This data showcases the price returns for Bitcoin in 2024 (blue line) in comparison to previous halving years. This year is still below par; these returns are only marginally above the baseline, especially when contrasted with 2020 (purple line). In past halving years, Q4 was crucial in driving up prices; however, 2024 has yet to experience this surge, leading to the current speculation regarding a bull market.

該數據顯示了 2024 年比特幣的價格回報（藍線）與先前減半年份的比較。今年仍低於平均值；這些回報僅略高於基線，特別是與 2020 年（紫線）相比。在過去的減半年中，第四季對於推高價格至關重要；然而，2024 年尚未出現這種飆升，導致目前有關牛​​市的猜測。

The next two weeks will be pivotal in determining the direction of the BTC price movement. If no uplifts follow this period, this halving year will mark the longest sideways movement in the market and a new state for the market. Investors are closely monitoring to see if Bitcoin's historical trend will continue or be disrupted this cycle.

未來兩週對於確定 BTC 價格走勢至關重要。如果在此期間沒有出現上漲，那麼今年減半將標誌著市場最長的橫向波動以及市場的新狀態。投資者正在密切關注比特幣的歷史趨勢是會延續還是在本週期被擾亂。