市场违背规律，比特币减半周期令分析师困惑

加密行业目前正在经历一场具有独特特征的牛市。与之前的周期不同，流动性直接从比特币流向模因币，而没有通过其他高资本化资产的典型流程。这种现象，加上比特币减半前非典型的历史新高，分析师将这一时期称为有记录以来“最奇怪”的牛市。

Bitcoin Halving Cycle Baffles Analysts as Market Dynamics Defy Historical Patterns

比特币减半周期令分析师感到困惑，因为市场动态违背了历史模式

Amidst an unprecedented bull market marked by volatility and anomalous behavior, crypto industry experts are grappling with the complexities of the current Bitcoin halving cycle.

在以波动和异常行为为特征的前所未有的牛市中，加密行业专家正在努力应对当前比特币减半周期的复杂性。

Traditionally, Bitcoin bull runs have witnessed a sequential flow of liquidity from Bitcoin (BTC) to Ethereum (ETH) and other large-cap coins before trickling down to smaller cryptocurrencies. However, this cycle has witnessed a peculiar deviation, with funds flowing directly from BTC into memecoins.

传统上，比特币牛市见证了流动性从比特币（BTC）流向以太坊（ETH）和其他大盘币，然后流向较小的加密货币。然而，这个周期出现了一个特殊的偏差，资金直接从 BTC 流向 memecoin。

Zach Rynes, Chainlink community liaison, aptly described the market's behavior as "weird" in a post to his substantial following. He highlighted that the market has "skipped a couple of steps that we have seen with previous cycles," suggesting an atypical liquidity pattern.

Chainlink 社区联络员 Zach Rynes 在给他的大量追随者的帖子中恰当地将市场行为描述为“奇怪”。他强调，市场“跳过了我们在之前周期中看到的几个步骤”，这表明了非典型的流动性模式。

Memecoins, known for their humorous or viral attributes, have surged in popularity, with their combined capitalization reaching an astounding $70 billion on April 1. This meteoric rise has been primarily driven by the influx of liquidity into newly launched tokens, such as Solana-based 'dogwifhat' (WIF) and Book of Meme (BOME), as well as established memecoins like Pepe (PEPE) and Bonk (BONK).

Memecoin 以其幽默或病毒式传播的特性而闻名，人气飙升，其总市值在 4 月 1 日达到惊人的 700 亿美元。这种迅速上涨的主要原因是流动性涌入新推出的代币，例如基于 Solana 的代币'dogwifhat' (WIF) 和 Book of Meme (BOME)，以及 Pepe (PEPE) 和 Bonk (BONK) 等成熟的 memecoin。

The Coinbase layer-2 network Base has emerged as a burgeoning hub for memecoin speculation. DEGEN, a recently launched Base-native token, has witnessed a remarkable 2,800% surge in value over the past month. This unofficial token, distributed through the decentralized social network Farcaster, exemplifies the enigmatic nature of this market cycle.

Coinbase 第 2 层网络 Base 已成为 memecoin 投机的新兴中心。 DEGEN 是最近推出的 Base-native 代币，在过去一个月里其价值飙升了 2,800%。这种通过去中心化社交网络 Farcaster 分发的非官方代币体现了这一市场周期的神秘本质。

Experts emphasize the diminished influence of market fundamentals in driving the current rally. "There's some retail money that's entered, but nowhere near the levels we've seen before," observed Rynes. "We're in an attention economy based on specific narratives, not real fundamentals."

专家强调，市场基本面对推动当前反弹的影响力正在减弱。 “有一些散户资金进入，但远没有达到我们之前看到的水平，”赖恩斯观察到。 “我们所处的注意力经济基于特定的叙述，而不是真正的基本面。”

Anthony Sassano, an Ethereum educator, echoed this sentiment, asserting that this bull market "is, by far, the weirdest crypto has ever had." He highlighted the absence of significant retail participation, suggesting that the market's dynamics are largely driven by a select group of crypto enthusiasts rotating funds among highly speculative assets.

以太坊教育家安东尼·萨萨诺（Anthony Sassano）也表达了同样的观点，他声称这次牛市“是迄今为止最奇怪的加密货币市场”。他强调缺乏大量散户参与，这表明市场的动态很大程度上是由一群选定的加密货币爱好者在高度投机性资产之间轮换资金所驱动的。

One of the most confounding aspects of this cycle is the divergence between Bitcoin and its historical behavior. In previous cycles, Bitcoin typically experienced its all-time high after the halving event, which reduces the block reward for miners by half. However, this cycle has seen Bitcoin reach its all-time high of $73,734 on March 14, with the halving scheduled for April 20.

这一周期最令人困惑的方面之一是比特币与其历史行为之间的分歧。在之前的周期中，比特币通常会在减半事件后创下历史新高，这使得矿工的区块奖励减少了一半。然而，在这个周期中，比特币在 3 月 14 日达到了历史新高 73,734 美元，减半计划于 4 月 20 日进行。

Technical analyst Moustache noted that Bitcoin has reclaimed a key Fibonacci ratio level observed in past cycles, but this time, it occurred before the halving. This unprecedented development has further confounded analysts, who are struggling to interpret the implications for the market's trajectory.

技术分析师穆斯塔什指出，比特币已经恢复了过去周期中观察到的关键斐波那契比率水平，但这一次是在减半之前发生的。这种前所未有的发展进一步让分析师感到困惑，他们正在努力解释其对市场轨迹的影响。

As the countdown to the halving continues, analysts remain divided in their predictions. Some believe that the market's volatility and atypical behavior will persist, while others predict a potential retracement before a renewed surge in prices.

随着减半倒计时的继续，分析师的预测仍然存在分歧。一些人认为市场的波动和非典型行为将持续存在，而另一些人则预测在价格再次飙升之前可能会出现回调。

One thing is certain: this Bitcoin halving cycle has thrown a curveball at the crypto industry, challenging long-held assumptions and leaving analysts scratching their heads. As the market evolves, it remains to be seen whether the current dynamics will continue or a more traditional pattern will reassert itself.

有一点是肯定的：比特币减半周期给加密货币行业带来了巨大的挑战，挑战了长期以来的假设，让分析师们摸不着头脑。随着市场的发展，目前的动态是否会持续，或者更传统的模式是否会重新出现，还有待观察。