市場違反規律，比特幣減半週期令分析師困惑

加密產業目前正在經歷一場具有獨特特徵的牛市。與先前的週期不同，流動性直接從比特幣流向迷因幣，而沒有通過其他高資本化資產的典型流程。這種現象，加上比特幣減半前非典型的歷史新高，分析師將這段時期稱為有紀錄以來「最奇怪」的牛市。

Bitcoin Halving Cycle Baffles Analysts as Market Dynamics Defy Historical Patterns

比特幣減半週期令分析師感到困惑，因為市場動態違反了歷史模式

Amidst an unprecedented bull market marked by volatility and anomalous behavior, crypto industry experts are grappling with the complexities of the current Bitcoin halving cycle.

在以波動和異常行為為特徵的前所未有的牛市中，加密行業專家正在努力應對當前比特幣減半週期的複雜性。

Traditionally, Bitcoin bull runs have witnessed a sequential flow of liquidity from Bitcoin (BTC) to Ethereum (ETH) and other large-cap coins before trickling down to smaller cryptocurrencies. However, this cycle has witnessed a peculiar deviation, with funds flowing directly from BTC into memecoins.

傳統上，比特幣牛市見證了流動性從比特幣（BTC）流向以太幣（ETH）和其他大盤幣，然後流向較小的加密貨幣。然而，這個週期出現了一個特殊的偏差，資金直接從 BTC 流向 memecoin。

Zach Rynes, Chainlink community liaison, aptly described the market's behavior as "weird" in a post to his substantial following. He highlighted that the market has "skipped a couple of steps that we have seen with previous cycles," suggesting an atypical liquidity pattern.

Chainlink 社區聯絡員 Zach Rynes 在給他的大量追隨者的帖子中恰當地將市場行為描述為“奇怪”。他強調，市場“跳過了我們在先前週期中看到的幾個步驟”，這表明了非典型的流動性模式。

Memecoins, known for their humorous or viral attributes, have surged in popularity, with their combined capitalization reaching an astounding $70 billion on April 1. This meteoric rise has been primarily driven by the influx of liquidity into newly launched tokens, such as Solana-based 'dogwifhat' (WIF) and Book of Meme (BOME), as well as established memecoins like Pepe (PEPE) and Bonk (BONK).

Memecoin 以其幽默或病毒式傳播的特性而聞名，人氣飆升，其總市值在4 月1 日達到驚人的700 億美元。這種迅速上漲的主要原因是流動性湧入新推出的代幣，例如基於Solana 的代幣'dogwifhat' (WIF) 和 Book of Meme (BOME)，以及 Pepe (PEPE) 和 Bonk (BONK) 等成熟的 memecoin。

The Coinbase layer-2 network Base has emerged as a burgeoning hub for memecoin speculation. DEGEN, a recently launched Base-native token, has witnessed a remarkable 2,800% surge in value over the past month. This unofficial token, distributed through the decentralized social network Farcaster, exemplifies the enigmatic nature of this market cycle.

Coinbase 第 2 層網路 Base 已成為 memecoin 投機的新興中心。 DEGEN 是最近推出的 Base-native 代幣，在過去一個月裡其價值飆升了 2,800%。這種透過去中心化社交網路 Farcaster 分發的非官方代幣體現了這個市場週期的神秘本質。

Experts emphasize the diminished influence of market fundamentals in driving the current rally. "There's some retail money that's entered, but nowhere near the levels we've seen before," observed Rynes. "We're in an attention economy based on specific narratives, not real fundamentals."

專家強調，市場基本面對推動當前反彈的影響力正在減弱。 「有一些散戶資金進入，但遠遠沒有達到我們之前看到的水平，」賴恩斯觀察到。 “我們所處的注意力經濟是基於特定的敘述，而不是真正的基本面。”

Anthony Sassano, an Ethereum educator, echoed this sentiment, asserting that this bull market "is, by far, the weirdest crypto has ever had." He highlighted the absence of significant retail participation, suggesting that the market's dynamics are largely driven by a select group of crypto enthusiasts rotating funds among highly speculative assets.

以太坊教育家安東尼·薩薩諾（Anthony Sassano）也表達了同樣的觀點，他聲稱這次牛市「是迄今為止最奇怪的加密貨幣市場」。他強調缺乏大量的散戶參與，這表明市場的動態很大程度上是由一群選定的加密貨幣愛好者在高度投機性資產之間輪換資金所驅動。

One of the most confounding aspects of this cycle is the divergence between Bitcoin and its historical behavior. In previous cycles, Bitcoin typically experienced its all-time high after the halving event, which reduces the block reward for miners by half. However, this cycle has seen Bitcoin reach its all-time high of $73,734 on March 14, with the halving scheduled for April 20.

這一週期最令人困惑的方面之一是比特幣與其歷史行為之間的分歧。在先前的周期中，比特幣通常會在減半事件後創下歷史新高，這使得礦工的區塊獎勵減少了一半。然而，在這個週期中，比特幣在 3 月 14 日達到了歷史新高 73,734 美元，減半計劃於 4 月 20 日進行。

Technical analyst Moustache noted that Bitcoin has reclaimed a key Fibonacci ratio level observed in past cycles, but this time, it occurred before the halving. This unprecedented development has further confounded analysts, who are struggling to interpret the implications for the market's trajectory.

技術分析師穆斯塔什指出，比特幣已經恢復了過去週期中觀察到的關鍵斐波那契比率水平，但這次是在減半之前發生的。這種前所未有的發展進一步讓分析師感到困惑，他們正在努力解釋對市場軌蹟的影響。

As the countdown to the halving continues, analysts remain divided in their predictions. Some believe that the market's volatility and atypical behavior will persist, while others predict a potential retracement before a renewed surge in prices.

隨著減半倒數計時的繼續，分析師的預測仍然存在分歧。有些人認為市場的波動和非典型行為將持續存在，而另一些人則預測在價格再次飆升之前可能會出現回調。

One thing is certain: this Bitcoin halving cycle has thrown a curveball at the crypto industry, challenging long-held assumptions and leaving analysts scratching their heads. As the market evolves, it remains to be seen whether the current dynamics will continue or a more traditional pattern will reassert itself.

有一點是肯定的：比特幣減半週期為加密貨幣產業帶來了巨大的挑戰，挑戰了長期以來的假設，讓分析師們摸不著頭腦。隨著市場的發展，目前的動態是否會持續，或者更傳統的模式是否會重新出現，還有待觀察。