2024 年比特币减半：加密市场爆炸性反弹的催化剂

比特币减半事件预计将在 2024 年 4 月 19 日至 20 日期间发生，由于 SEC 批准比特币现货 ETF 等因素的独特组合，预计将带来比特币价格的爆炸性增长，超过上一个周期的高点，并且鲸鱼数量增加要求。

Bitcoin Halving 2024: A Watershed Moment for the Crypto Market

2024 年比特币减半：加密市场的分水岭

As the highly anticipated Bitcoin halving event of 2024 rapidly approaches, the cryptocurrency community is abuzz with excitement and speculation. Set to occur between April 19 and 20, 2024, this quadrennial event, which cuts the supply of new bitcoins in half, has a well-established history of triggering new market cycles and bull runs. However, the upcoming halving is shaping up to be particularly unique, with a constellation of factors converging to suggest the potential for explosive growth in the Bitcoin price.

随着备受期待的 2024 年比特币减半事件迅速临近，加密货币社区充满了兴奋和猜测。这一四年一度的事件将于 2024 年 4 月 19 日至 20 日之间发生，将新比特币的供应量减少一半，在触发新的市场周期和牛市方面有着悠久的历史。然而，即将到来的减半将变得特别独特，一系列因素汇聚在一起表明比特币价格有爆炸性增长的潜力。

Unprecedented Market Dynamics

前所未有的市场动态

One key difference in this year's halving is the recent U.S. SEC approval of eleven spot Bitcoin spot ETFs. This development, which took place in January 2024, has already driven significant demand for the cryptocurrency. Antoni Trenchev, co-founder of crypto trading platform Nexo, emphasized the significance of this factor, stating:

今年减半的一个关键区别是美国 SEC 最近批准了 11 只比特币现货 ETF。这一发展发生于 2024 年 1 月，已经推动了对加密货币的巨大需求。加密货币交易平台 Nexo 联合创始人 Antoni Trenchev 强调了这一因素的重要性，他表示：

"The halving is always a major event for Bitcoiners, but the 2024 iteration is particularly noteworthy. The combination of reduced supply and fresh ETF demand creates an explosive cocktail. What makes this halving unique is that bitcoin has already surpassed the last cycle's high – something it's never done before ahead of the quadrennial event – which makes trying to forecast the length and ferocity of this cycle a challenge."

“对于比特币爱好者来说，减半始终是一件大事，但 2024 年的减半尤其值得注意。供应减少和新的 ETF 需求相结合，创造了一种爆炸性的鸡尾酒。这次减半的独特之处在于，比特币已经超过了上一个周期的高点——这是在四年一次的活动之前，以前从未这样做过——这使得预测这一周期的长度和猛烈程度成为一项挑战。”

Historical Significance

历史意义

Historically, Bitcoin has experienced substantial price increases following each halving event. After the 2012, 2016, and 2020 halvings, the Bitcoin price increased by approximately 93x, 30x, and 8x, respectively, from the halving day price to the cycle top. While past performance is not a guarantee of future results, and the magnitude of the halving's impact on price may diminish over time, experts suggest that the conditions are ripe for a particularly strong post-halving rally in 2024.

从历史上看，每次减半事件后，比特币的价格都会大幅上涨。 2012年、2016年和2020年减半后，比特币价格从减半日价格到周期顶部分别上涨了约93倍、30倍和8倍。虽然过去的表现并不能保证未来的结果，而且减半对价格的影响程度可能会随着时间的推移而减弱，但专家表示，2024 年减半后特别强劲的反弹的条件已经成熟。

"This Bitcoin bull cycle – which kicked into gear earlier because of the January approval of the spot ETFs – might well be shorter and more explosive, culminating in a peak in late 2024 or early 2025," said Steven Lubka, head of private clients and family offices at Swan Bitcoin.

私人客户和主管 Steven Lubka 表示：“由于 1 月份现货 ETF 获批，这一比特币牛市周期很可能会持续更短、更具爆炸性，最终在 2024 年底或 2025 年初达到顶峰。” Swan Bitcoin 的家族办公室。

Technical Underpinnings

技术基础

The halving event itself is a technical change that occurs on the Bitcoin network, reducing the incentives for Bitcoin miners. Miners, who run the machines that record and add new blocks of transactions to the blockchain, are rewarded with newly created bitcoins and transaction fees. The current mining reward of 6.25 bitcoins will be reduced to 3.125 bitcoins during the halving. This reduction in block rewards slows the pace at which new coins are created, helping to maintain Bitcoin's scarcity and its status as "digital gold."

减半事件本身是比特币网络发生的技术变革，降低了比特币矿工的激励。运行记录并向区块链添加新交易块的机器的矿工将获得新创建的比特币和交易费作为奖励。目前的挖矿奖励为 6.25 个比特币，减半期间将减少至 3.125 个比特币。区块奖励的减少减缓了新币的创造速度，有助于维持比特币的稀缺性及其“数字黄金”的地位。

While the halving day itself may not result in immediate market volatility, the long-term impact of the reduced supply can be significant. Lubka estimates that every day following the halving, there will be approximately $30 million less in Bitcoin being sold by miners, who are the most regular sellers in the market. This reduced selling pressure can compound over time, potentially making a substantial impact on the Bitcoin price in the months following the event.

虽然减半日本身可能不会立即导致市场波动，但供应减少的长期影响可能会很大。 Lubka 估计，减半后，矿工（市场上最常卖家）出售的比特币将减少约 3000 万美元。随着时间的推移，抛售压力的减少可能会加剧，可能会对事件发生后几个月内的比特币价格产生重大影响。

Unprecedented Demand

前所未有的需求

In addition to the supply shock, the 2024 halving is occurring in an environment of unprecedented demand for Bitcoin. Data from CryptoQuant shows that "whale" demand, which includes long-time Bitcoiners, new investors, and Bitcoin ETF holders, is already at an all-time high, even before the block reward reduction. This suggests that demand growth, rather than the halving itself, may be the primary driver for higher prices in this cycle.

除了供应冲击之外，2024 年减半是在比特币需求空前的环境下发生的。 CryptoQuant 的数据显示，即使在区块奖励减少之前，包括长期比特币持有者、新投资者和比特币 ETF 持有者在内的“鲸鱼”需求已经达到历史最高水平。这表明需求增长，而不是减半本身，可能是本周期价格上涨的主要驱动力。

Current Market Conditions

目前的市场状况

At the time of writing (2:10 p.m. UTC on 15 April 2024), Bitcoin is trading at around $65,681, up 2.5% in the past 24-hour period. While the market is still recovering from the recent downturn, analysts believe that the positive sentiment surrounding the upcoming halving is providing a solid foundation for further growth.

截至撰写本文时（世界标准时间 2024 年 4 月 15 日下午 2:10），比特币交易价格约为 65,681 美元，在过去 24 小时内上涨了 2.5%。尽管市场仍在从近期的低迷中复苏，但分析师认为，围绕即将到来的减半的积极情绪正在为进一步增长奠定坚实的基础。

Conclusion

结论

The 2024 Bitcoin halving event is poised to be a watershed moment for the crypto market. The confluence of reduced supply, increasing demand, and a favorable regulatory environment suggests the potential for explosive growth in the Bitcoin price. While it is impossible to predict the exact magnitude of the rally, the stage is set for a significant bull run that could propel Bitcoin to new heights.

2024 年比特币减半事件有望成为加密市场的分水岭。供应减少、需求增加和有利的监管环境相结合，表明比特币价格有爆发性增长的潜力。虽然不可能预测反弹的确切幅度，但一场重大牛市的舞台已经准备好，这可能将比特币推向新的高度。