2024 年比特幣減半：加密市場爆炸性反彈的催化劑

比特幣減半事件預計將在2024 年4 月19 日至20 日期間發生，由於SEC 批准比特幣現貨ETF 等因素的獨特組合，預計將帶來比特幣價格的爆炸性增長，超過上一個週期的高點，並且鯨魚數量增加要求。

Bitcoin Halving 2024: A Watershed Moment for the Crypto Market

2024 年比特幣減半：加密市場的分水嶺

As the highly anticipated Bitcoin halving event of 2024 rapidly approaches, the cryptocurrency community is abuzz with excitement and speculation. Set to occur between April 19 and 20, 2024, this quadrennial event, which cuts the supply of new bitcoins in half, has a well-established history of triggering new market cycles and bull runs. However, the upcoming halving is shaping up to be particularly unique, with a constellation of factors converging to suggest the potential for explosive growth in the Bitcoin price.

隨著備受期待的 2024 年比特幣減半事件迅速臨近，加密貨幣社群充滿了興奮和猜測。這四年一度的事件將於 2024 年 4 月 19 日至 20 日之間發生，將新比特幣的供應量減少一半，在觸發新的市場週期和牛市方面有著悠久的歷史。然而，即將到來的減半將變得特別獨特，一系列因素匯聚在一起表明比特幣價格有爆炸性增長的潛力。

Unprecedented Market Dynamics

前所未有的市場動態

One key difference in this year's halving is the recent U.S. SEC approval of eleven spot Bitcoin spot ETFs. This development, which took place in January 2024, has already driven significant demand for the cryptocurrency. Antoni Trenchev, co-founder of crypto trading platform Nexo, emphasized the significance of this factor, stating:

今年減半的一個關鍵差異是美國 SEC 最近批准了 11 隻比特幣現貨 ETF。這項發展發生於 2024 年 1 月，已經推動了對加密貨幣的巨大需求。加密貨幣交易平台 Nexo 聯合創始人 Antoni Trenchev 強調了這一因素的重要性，他說：

"The halving is always a major event for Bitcoiners, but the 2024 iteration is particularly noteworthy. The combination of reduced supply and fresh ETF demand creates an explosive cocktail. What makes this halving unique is that bitcoin has already surpassed the last cycle's high – something it's never done before ahead of the quadrennial event – which makes trying to forecast the length and ferocity of this cycle a challenge."

「對於比特幣愛好者來說，減半始終是一件大事，但2024 年的減半尤其值得注意。供應減少和新的ETF 需求相結合，創造了一種爆炸性的雞尾酒。這次減半的獨特之處在於，比特幣已經超過了上一個週期的高點——這是在四年一次的活動之前，以前從未這樣做過——這使得預測這一周期的長度和猛烈程度成為一項挑戰。

Historical Significance

歷史意義

Historically, Bitcoin has experienced substantial price increases following each halving event. After the 2012, 2016, and 2020 halvings, the Bitcoin price increased by approximately 93x, 30x, and 8x, respectively, from the halving day price to the cycle top. While past performance is not a guarantee of future results, and the magnitude of the halving's impact on price may diminish over time, experts suggest that the conditions are ripe for a particularly strong post-halving rally in 2024.

從歷史上看，每次減半事件後，比特幣的價格都會大幅上漲。 2012年、2016年和2020年減半後，比特幣價格從減半日價格到週期頂部分別上漲了約93倍、30倍和8倍。雖然過去的表現並不能保證未來的結果，而且減半對價格的影響程度可能會隨著時間的推移而減弱，但專家表示，2024 年減半後特別強勁的反彈的條件已經成熟。

"This Bitcoin bull cycle – which kicked into gear earlier because of the January approval of the spot ETFs – might well be shorter and more explosive, culminating in a peak in late 2024 or early 2025," said Steven Lubka, head of private clients and family offices at Swan Bitcoin.

私人客戶和主管 Steven Lubka 表示：「由於 1 月現貨 ETF 獲批，這個比特幣牛市週期很可能會持續更短、更具爆炸性，最終在 2024 年底或 2025 年初達到頂峰。」 Swan Bitcoin 的家族辦公室。

Technical Underpinnings

技術基礎

The halving event itself is a technical change that occurs on the Bitcoin network, reducing the incentives for Bitcoin miners. Miners, who run the machines that record and add new blocks of transactions to the blockchain, are rewarded with newly created bitcoins and transaction fees. The current mining reward of 6.25 bitcoins will be reduced to 3.125 bitcoins during the halving. This reduction in block rewards slows the pace at which new coins are created, helping to maintain Bitcoin's scarcity and its status as "digital gold."

減半事件本身就是比特幣網路發生的技術變革，降低了比特幣礦工的誘因。運行記錄並在區塊鏈中添加新交易區塊的機器的礦工將獲得新創建的比特幣和交易費作為獎勵。目前的挖礦獎勵為 6.25 個比特幣，減半期間將減少至 3.125 個比特幣。區塊獎勵的減少減緩了新幣的創造速度，有助於維持比特幣的稀缺性及其「數位黃金」的地位。

While the halving day itself may not result in immediate market volatility, the long-term impact of the reduced supply can be significant. Lubka estimates that every day following the halving, there will be approximately $30 million less in Bitcoin being sold by miners, who are the most regular sellers in the market. This reduced selling pressure can compound over time, potentially making a substantial impact on the Bitcoin price in the months following the event.

雖然減半日本身可能不會立即導致市場波動，但供應減少的長期影響可能會很大。 Lubka 估計，減半後，礦工（市場上最常賣家）出售的比特幣將減少約 3,000 萬美元。隨著時間的推移，拋售壓力的減少可能會加劇，可能會對事件發生後幾個月內的比特幣價格產生重大影響。

Unprecedented Demand

前所未有的需求

In addition to the supply shock, the 2024 halving is occurring in an environment of unprecedented demand for Bitcoin. Data from CryptoQuant shows that "whale" demand, which includes long-time Bitcoiners, new investors, and Bitcoin ETF holders, is already at an all-time high, even before the block reward reduction. This suggests that demand growth, rather than the halving itself, may be the primary driver for higher prices in this cycle.

除了供應衝擊之外，2024 年減半是在比特幣需求空前的環境下發生的。 CryptoQuant 的數據顯示，即使在區塊獎勵減少之前，包括長期比特幣持有者、新投資者和比特幣 ETF 持有者在內的「鯨魚」需求已經達到歷史最高水平。這表明需求成長，而不是減半本身，可能是本週期價格上漲的主要驅動力。

Current Market Conditions

目前的市場狀況

At the time of writing (2:10 p.m. UTC on 15 April 2024), Bitcoin is trading at around $65,681, up 2.5% in the past 24-hour period. While the market is still recovering from the recent downturn, analysts believe that the positive sentiment surrounding the upcoming halving is providing a solid foundation for further growth.

截至本文撰寫時（世界標準時間 2024 年 4 月 15 日下午 2:10），比特幣交易價格約為 65,681 美元，在過去 24 小時內上漲了 2.5%。儘管市場仍在從近期的低迷中復甦，但分析師認為，圍繞即將到來的減半的積極情緒正在為進一步增長奠定堅實的基礎。

Conclusion

結論

The 2024 Bitcoin halving event is poised to be a watershed moment for the crypto market. The confluence of reduced supply, increasing demand, and a favorable regulatory environment suggests the potential for explosive growth in the Bitcoin price. While it is impossible to predict the exact magnitude of the rally, the stage is set for a significant bull run that could propel Bitcoin to new heights.

2024 年比特幣減半事件可望成為加密市場的分水嶺。供應減少、需求增加和有利的監管環境相結合，顯示比特幣價格有爆發性成長的潛力。雖然不可能預測反彈的確切幅度，但一場重大牛市的舞台已經準備好，這可能會將比特幣推向新的高度。