比特币减半临近：挖矿的分水岭

即将到来的 2024 年比特币减半预计将对采矿业产生重大影响。从历史上看，减半与比特币价格大幅上涨有关，这通过抵消区块奖励的减少而使矿工受益。然而，分析师对即将到来的减半的潜在影响持有不同的看法，一些分析师预计，由于最近的价格上涨，影响不大，而另一些分析师则认为，根据矿业公司的准备情况，影响可能会更大。

Bitcoin's Impending Halving: A Watershed Moment for the Mining Industry

比特币即将减半：矿业的分水岭

The countdown is on to Bitcoin's fourth halving, a pivotal event scheduled for 2024 that promises to have profound implications for the mining sector. Historically, halvings have been harbingers of major rallies for the cryptocurrency, creating a windfall for miners as the block reward is halved, reducing the supply of newly minted coins.

比特币第四次减半已经进入倒计时，这一关键事件定于 2024 年发生，有望对采矿业产生深远影响。从历史上看，减半一直是加密货币大幅上涨的先兆，随着区块奖励减半，新铸造货币的供应量减少，为矿工带来了意外之财。

During the previous three halvings, Bitcoin has embarked on explosive bull runs, reaching unprecedented highs and attracting a surge of investors. This dramatic price appreciation has cushioned the impact of the halving for miners, mitigating the effects of the reduced block reward.

在前三次减半期间，比特币开启了爆炸性牛市，达到了前所未有的高点，吸引了大批投资者。价格的大幅上涨缓解了矿工减半的影响，减轻了区块奖励减少的影响。

However, the upcoming halving has raised concerns among some industry experts, particularly given the recent market downturn. While Bitcoin has rebounded in recent weeks, it remains significantly below its all-time high. Concerns linger that the halving could further dampen the mining sector, which has already faced challenges in the current market environment.

然而，即将到来的减半引起了一些行业专家的担忧，特别是考虑到最近的市场低迷。尽管比特币最近几周有所反弹，但仍远低于历史高点。人们仍然担心减半可能会进一步抑制采矿业，该行业在当前市场环境下已经面临挑战。

"Halvings can take a toll on a company if it is not adequately prepared," said Core Scientific's Sullivan in an interview with CNBC. "As a company that was already in the process of scaling our infrastructure during the previous halving, we know the importance of being ready."

Core Scientific 的沙利文在接受 CNBC 采访时表示：“如果公司没有做好充分准备，减半可能会给公司带来损失。” “作为一家在上一次减半期间已经开始扩展基础设施的公司，我们知道做好准备的重要性。”

Indeed, the aggregate market cap of 14 U.S.-listed Bitcoin miners has declined by 28% in the first half of April, reaching $14.2 billion, according to data from JPMorgan analysts. This highlights the vulnerability of the sector amidst the ongoing market turbulence.

事实上，根据摩根大通分析师的数据，4 月上半月，14 家在美国上市的比特币矿商的总市值下降了 28%，达到 142 亿美元。这凸显了该行业在持续的市场动荡中的脆弱性。

Some analysts, however, are more optimistic about the potential impact of the halving. Needham analysts predict that the event will have only a modest effect on miners' estimated EBITDA margins, despite the 50% reduction in revenue. This is due to the fact that Bitcoin has been trading in the $60,000 to $70,000 range recently.

然而，一些分析师对减半的潜在影响更为乐观。 Needham 分析师预测，尽管收入减少了 50%，但该事件对矿商的预计 EBITDA 利润率影响不大。这是因为比特币最近一直在 60,000 美元至 70,000 美元范围内交易。

"We expect geopolitical tensions and interest rate policy to be the biggest near-term drivers of crypto price action," stated Needham analysts. "At a Bitcoin price above $60,000, the halving is 'derisked for nearly all public miners.'"

Needham 分析师表示：“我们预计地缘政治紧张局势和利率政策将成为加密货币价格走势的最大近期驱动因素。” “当比特币价格超过 60,000 美元时，‘几乎所有公共矿工都不会面临减半的风险’。”

Nonetheless, analysts at Needham and JPMorgan have identified low-cost Bitcoin producers, such as Riot Platforms, Bitdeer, and Cipher Mining, as preferred investments in the current environment. These companies are expected to better weather the impact of the halving due to their efficient operations and lower production costs.

尽管如此，Needham 和摩根大通的分析师仍将 Riot Platforms、Bitdeer 和 Cipher Mining 等低成本比特币生产商视为当前环境下的首选投资。由于高效的运营和较低的生产成本，这些公司预计将更好地抵御减半的影响。

Conversely, higher-cost producers who hold significant Bitcoin reserves are likely to experience a more substantial impact if Bitcoin prices decline.

相反，如果比特币价格下跌，持有大量比特币储备的成本较高的生产商可能会受到更重大的影响。

In conclusion, Bitcoin's upcoming halving is a critical juncture for the mining industry. While the event has historically been associated with market rallies, the current market conditions have raised concerns among some analysts. However, others remain cautiously optimistic, emphasizing the importance of adequate preparation and the potential for the halving to benefit low-cost producers. As the countdown to 2024 continues, the mining industry awaits the outcome of this pivotal event with a mix of anticipation and trepidation.

综上所述，比特币即将减半对于挖矿行业来说是一个关键时刻。虽然这一事件历来与市场反弹有关，但当前的市场状况引起了一些分析师的担忧。然而，其他人仍持谨慎乐观态度，强调充分准备的重要性以及减半可能使低成本生产商受益的潜力。随着 2024 年倒计时的继续，采矿业怀着既期待又惶恐的心情等待着这一关键事件的结果。