比特幣減半將近：挖礦的分水嶺

即將到來的 2024 年比特幣減半預計將對採礦業產生重大影響。從歷史上看，減半與比特幣價格大幅上漲有關，這透過抵消區塊獎勵的減少而使礦工受益。然而，分析師對即將到來的減半的潛在影響持有不同的看法，一些分析師預計，由於最近的價格上漲，影響不大，而另一些分析師則認為，根據礦業公司的準備情況，影響可能會更大。

Bitcoin's Impending Halving: A Watershed Moment for the Mining Industry

比特幣即將減半：礦業的分水嶺

The countdown is on to Bitcoin's fourth halving, a pivotal event scheduled for 2024 that promises to have profound implications for the mining sector. Historically, halvings have been harbingers of major rallies for the cryptocurrency, creating a windfall for miners as the block reward is halved, reducing the supply of newly minted coins.

比特幣第四次減半已經進入倒數計時，這一關鍵事件定於 2024 年發生，預計將對採礦業產生深遠影響。從歷史上看，減半一直是加密貨幣大幅上漲的先兆，隨著區塊獎勵減半，新鑄造貨幣的供應量減少，為礦工帶來了意外之財。

During the previous three halvings, Bitcoin has embarked on explosive bull runs, reaching unprecedented highs and attracting a surge of investors. This dramatic price appreciation has cushioned the impact of the halving for miners, mitigating the effects of the reduced block reward.

在前三次減半期間，比特幣開啟了爆炸性牛市，達到了前所未有的高點，吸引了大批投資者。價格的大幅上漲緩解了礦工減半的影響，減輕了區塊獎勵減少的影響。

However, the upcoming halving has raised concerns among some industry experts, particularly given the recent market downturn. While Bitcoin has rebounded in recent weeks, it remains significantly below its all-time high. Concerns linger that the halving could further dampen the mining sector, which has already faced challenges in the current market environment.

然而，即將到來的減半引起了一些行業專家的擔憂，特別是考慮到最近的市場低迷。儘管比特幣最近幾週有所反彈，但仍遠低於歷史高點。人們仍然擔心減半可能會進一步抑制採礦業，該行業在當前市場環境下已經面臨挑戰。

"Halvings can take a toll on a company if it is not adequately prepared," said Core Scientific's Sullivan in an interview with CNBC. "As a company that was already in the process of scaling our infrastructure during the previous halving, we know the importance of being ready."

Core Scientific 的沙利文在接受 CNBC 採訪時表示：“如果公司沒有做好充分準備，減半可能會給公司帶來損失。” “作為一家在上一次減半期間已經開始擴展基礎設施的公司，我們知道做好準備的重要性。”

Indeed, the aggregate market cap of 14 U.S.-listed Bitcoin miners has declined by 28% in the first half of April, reaching $14.2 billion, according to data from JPMorgan analysts. This highlights the vulnerability of the sector amidst the ongoing market turbulence.

事實上，根據摩根大通分析師的數據，4 月上半月，14 家在美國上市的比特幣礦商的總市值下降了 28%，達到 142 億美元。這凸顯了該行業在持續的市場動盪中的脆弱性。

Some analysts, however, are more optimistic about the potential impact of the halving. Needham analysts predict that the event will have only a modest effect on miners' estimated EBITDA margins, despite the 50% reduction in revenue. This is due to the fact that Bitcoin has been trading in the $60,000 to $70,000 range recently.

然而，一些分析師對減半的潛在影響更為樂觀。 Needham 分析師預測，儘管收入減少了 50%，但該事件對礦商的預期 EBITDA 利潤率影響不大。這是因為比特幣最近一直在 60,000 美元至 70,000 美元範圍內交易。

"We expect geopolitical tensions and interest rate policy to be the biggest near-term drivers of crypto price action," stated Needham analysts. "At a Bitcoin price above $60,000, the halving is 'derisked for nearly all public miners.'"

Needham 分析師表示：“我們預計地緣政治緊張局勢和利率政策將成為加密貨幣價格走勢的最大近期驅動因素。” “當比特幣價格超過 60,000 美元時，’幾乎所有公共礦工都不會面臨減半的風險’。”

Nonetheless, analysts at Needham and JPMorgan have identified low-cost Bitcoin producers, such as Riot Platforms, Bitdeer, and Cipher Mining, as preferred investments in the current environment. These companies are expected to better weather the impact of the halving due to their efficient operations and lower production costs.

儘管如此，Needham 和摩根大通的分析師仍將 Riot Platforms、Bitdeer 和 Cipher Mining 等低成本比特幣生產商視為當前環境下的首選投資。由於高效的營運和較低的生產成本，這些公司預計將更好地抵禦減半的影響。

Conversely, higher-cost producers who hold significant Bitcoin reserves are likely to experience a more substantial impact if Bitcoin prices decline.

相反，如果比特幣價格下跌，持有大量比特幣儲備的成本較高的生產商可能會受到更重大的影響。

In conclusion, Bitcoin's upcoming halving is a critical juncture for the mining industry. While the event has historically been associated with market rallies, the current market conditions have raised concerns among some analysts. However, others remain cautiously optimistic, emphasizing the importance of adequate preparation and the potential for the halving to benefit low-cost producers. As the countdown to 2024 continues, the mining industry awaits the outcome of this pivotal event with a mix of anticipation and trepidation.

綜上所述，比特幣即將減半對挖礦產業來說是一個關鍵時刻。雖然這次事件歷來與市場反彈有關，但當前的市場狀況卻引起了一些分析師的擔憂。然而，其他人仍持謹慎樂觀態度，強調充分準備的重要性以及減半可能使低成本生產商受益的潛力。隨著 2024 年倒數計時的持續，採礦業懷著既期待又惶恐的心情等待著這一關鍵事件的結果。