比特币和以太坊记录糟糕的Q1

尽管投资者希望进入新的一年，但在3月30日撰写本文时，比特币和以太坊分别下跌了11.95％和45.06％，在第1季度。

Cryptocurrency market behemoths Bitcoin and Ethereum are displaying a troubling trend—they're poised to close Q1 with their worst performance in seven years. This bleak outlook follows a year of rapidly shifting global macroeconomic and geopolitical dynamics that have sparked uncertainty and left risk assets subdued.

加密货币市场巨头比特币和以太坊都表现出令人不安的趋势 - 他们准备在七年来结束第一季度的表现。这种黯淡的前景是遵循一年迅速转移的全球宏观经济和地缘政治动态，这些动态引发了不确定性，并使风险资产抑制了。

What Happened: Despite investor hopes coming into the new year, Bitcoin and Ethereum are down 11.95% and 45.06%, respectively, at the time of writing on Friday. With only a few hours to go to the end of the quarter, these leading cryptocurrency assets are on track for their worst quarterly close since 2018.

发生了什么：尽管投资者希望进入新的一年，但比特币和以太坊分别下跌了11.95％和45.06％，在周五写作时。到本季度末仅几个小时就可以了，这些领先的加密货币资产以自2018年以来最糟糕的季度关闭为正轨。

The first sign of trouble was the Federal Reserve's hawkish pivot in December, when it cut its interest rate cut projections for 2025, arguing that it expected inflation to remain sticky.

麻烦的第一个迹象是美联储在12月降低了2025年降低利率的预测，认为它预计通货膨胀会保持粘性。

President Donald Trump's erratic tariff policy has further complicated the situation, worsening inflation fears and sparking economic growth concerns.

唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）总统的不稳定关税政策进一步使局势变得复杂，加剧了通货膨胀的恐惧并引发了经济增长的关注。

However, despite these overarching concerns, cryptocurrency market participants are holding out hope for a turnaround in Q2, and history may be on their side.

但是，尽管存在这些总体问题，但加密货币市场参与者仍对第二季度的转机充满希望，历史可能站在他们这一边。

Historical Data: Seven out of 12 times, Bitcoin has closed the second quarter of the year in the green, averaging 27% gains. The numbers are even more impressive for Ethereum.

历史数据：在12次中，比特币在绿色的第二季度结束了，平均收益为27％。对于以太坊，这些数字更加令人印象深刻。

Seven out of nine times, the second-largest cryptocurrency asset by market cap has ended the second quarter in the green with an average gain of 67%, typically outperforming Bitcoin within the period.

九次中有七次，第二大的加密货币资产在绿色的第二季度结束，平均收益为67％，通常在此期间表现出色。

Some market observers are hopeful for a turnaround in Q2 in anticipation of a near Fed pivot. Following the last Federal Open Market Committee meeting, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell asserted that inflation may be transitory. At the same time, he let slip that the Fed will be taking steps to slow down quantitative tightening starting April 1.

一些市场观察家希望在第2季度的近距离枢纽中有所作为。在上次联邦公开市场委员会会议之后，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）断言，通货膨胀可能是短暂的。同时，他让美联储将采取措施从4月1日开始降低定量收紧。

"JAYPOW delivered, QT basically over Apr 1. The next thing we need to get bulled up for realz is either SLR exemption and or a restart of QE. Was $BTC $77k the bottom, prob. But stonks prob have more pain left to fully convert Jay to team Trump so stay nimble and cashed up," BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes said.

“ Jaypow基本上是在4月1日的时间内交付的。下一件事我们需要为Realz欺负，要么是SLR豁免，要么是QE的重新开始。$ BTC $ 77,77,000 $ 77K，但Stonks Prob。但是Stonks Prob剩下的痛苦还剩下更多的痛苦，可以将Jay完全转换为Trump，因此请保持敏捷，并兑现，Bitmex uped uped up upmex upmex uped upmex of to nimex of to nimex upeder to nimmex of to nimble to nimble seuts in tearmex in to nimble to nimble to nimble。

Market Impact: In the short term, several events will be affecting the crypto market. Several data releases, such as data on U.S. manufacturing activity and the monthly jobs report, are anticipated this week. At the same time, Trump is expected to announce fresh tariffs on April 2, which he has said will target all countries.

市场影响：在短期内，几个事件将影响加密市场。预计本周将发布一些数据发布，例如有关美国制造活动和每月工作报告的数据。同时，特朗普有望在4月2日宣布新的关税，他说这将以所有国家的目标。

"The US leads a busy week ‘look ahead’ for the global economy and markets with a string of data releases — including the monthly jobs reports, JOLTS, ISM, and retail sales — the April 2nd tariff announcement, and remarks by Chair Powell and other Federal Reserve officials. We’ll also keep an eye out for any further developments in the U.S. debt ceiling talks and the tone of the Chinese economic reports."

“美国为全球经济和市场带来了繁忙的一周'展望，包括每月的工作报告，震动，ISM和零售销售额，包括4月2日的关税宣布，鲍威尔主席和其他美联储官员发表的言论。我们还将在美国债务限制的谈话和中国经济报告中的进一步发展。

Ahead of these events, Bitcoin and Ethereum are trading at monthly lows of around $83,000 and $1,800, respectively.

在这些活动之前，比特币和以太坊的月度低点分别为83,000美元和1,800美元。