交易员警告即将回撤，比特币进入“危险区”

匿名加密货币交易商 Rekt Capital 发出警告，称比特币已进入“危险区”，这一时期历史上与减半前的价格回调有关。自上周以来，比特币已大幅回调近 18%，距离减半事件大约还有 26 天。该交易员强调了在这个关键时间窗口内进一步下跌的可能性，并与过去的周期进行了比较，在过去的周期中，比特币在减半前大约 28-32 天进行了减半前的回撤。

Bitcoin Enters "Danger Zone" as Pseudonymous Trader Warns of Impending Retrace

匿名交易员警告即将回撤，比特币进入“危险区”

Amidst a volatile market downturn, Bitcoin (BTC) has plummeted nearly 4% on Friday, dipping below the $64,000 mark. This sharp decline has raised concerns among traders and analysts, particularly in light of a recent warning from a pseudonymous crypto trader known as Rekt Capital. According to Rekt Capital, Bitcoin has officially entered the "danger zone," a period historically associated with significant pre-halving price retracements.

在市场动荡低迷的情况下，比特币 (BTC) 周五暴跌近 4%，跌破 64,000 美元大关。这种急剧下跌引起了交易员和分析师的担忧，特别是考虑到一位名为 Rekt Capital 的匿名加密货币交易商最近发出的警告。据 Rekt Capital 称，比特币已正式进入“危险区”，这一时期历史上与减半前价格大幅回调有关。

The "danger zone" is a crucial time window leading up to a Bitcoin halving event, which occurs approximately every four years. During this period, Bitcoin's price has historically experienced a pullback as investors anticipate the upcoming reduction in block rewards. With the next halving event scheduled for approximately 26 days away, Bitcoin's current downturn is particularly noteworthy.

“危险区”是导致比特币减半事件的关键时间窗口，大约每四年发生一次。在此期间，由于投资者预计区块奖励即将减少，比特币的价格历来经历过回调。距离下一次减半事件大约还有 26 天，比特币当前的低迷尤其值得注意。

Rekt Capital emphasizes the uncertainty surrounding whether the bottom of this retrace has been reached, highlighting the potential for further downside within this critical window. Drawing parallels with past halving cycles, Rekt Capital observes that Bitcoin typically undergoes a pre-halving retrace approximately 28-32 days before the event.

Rekt Capital 强调了此次回调是否已触底的不确定性，强调了在这一关键窗口内进一步下行的可能性。与过去的减半周期相比较，Rekt Capital 观察到，比特币通常会在减半事件发生前约 28-32 天进行预减半回溯。

In 2016, Bitcoin's pre-halving retrace occurred approximately 28 days prior to the halving, while in 2024, it occurred approximately 32 days before. The analysis suggests that Bitcoin may need to maintain its current highs to avoid a repeat of past downturns.

2016年，比特币的减半前回溯发生在减半前约28天，而2024年则发生在减半前约32天。分析表明，比特币可能需要维持当前的高位，以避免重蹈过去的低迷时期。

However, Rekt Capital's analysis also offers a glimpse into the potential timing of Bitcoin's next bull market peak. According to the trader, Bitcoin tends to perform a bull market top 266-315 days after it breaks its old all-time high. Given that Bitcoin broke its previous all-time highs last week, Rekt Capital predicts that the next peak could occur between late November 2024 and late January 2025.

然而，Rekt Capital 的分析也让我们了解了比特币下一个牛市高峰的潜在时机。据该交易员称，比特币往往会在突破历史新高后 266-315 天出现牛市见顶。鉴于比特币上周突破了此前的历史高点，Rekt Capital 预测下一个峰值可能会出现在 2024 年 11 月下旬至 2025 年 1 月下旬之间。

Extending this forecast further, adjustments for the duration beyond old all-time highs could push the bull market peak to mid-December 2024 or mid-February 2025. While these projections are speculative, they provide valuable insights into the potential trajectory of Bitcoin's price over the coming months and years.

进一步扩展这一预测，对历史高点之外的持续时间进行调整可能会将牛市峰值推至 2024 年 12 月中旬或 2025 年 2 月中旬。虽然这些预测是推测性的，但它们为比特币价格的潜在轨迹提供了宝贵的见解。未来几个月和几年。

As Bitcoin navigates the "danger zone," investors should remain vigilant and monitor market developments closely. The current retracement could present an opportunity for bull market accumulation, but it is crucial to manage risk and consider the potential for further downside. Rekt Capital's analysis serves as a timely reminder of the cyclicality of Bitcoin's price movements and highlights the importance of understanding historical patterns in making informed investment decisions.

随着比特币进入“危险区域”，投资者应保持警惕并密切关注市场动态。当前的回调可能会带来牛市吸筹的机会，但管理风险并考虑进一步下行的可能性至关重要。 Rekt Capital 的分析及时提醒人们注意比特币价格变动的周期性，并强调了解历史模式在做出明智投资决策时的重要性。