交易員警告即將回撤，比特幣進入“危險區”

匿名加密貨幣交易商 Rekt Capital 發出警告，稱比特幣已進入“危險區”，這一時期歷史上與減半前的價格回調有關。自上週以來，比特幣已大幅回檔近 18%，距離減半事件大約還有 26 天。該交易員強調了在這個關鍵時間窗口內進一步下跌的可能性，並與過去的周期進行了比較，在過去的周期中，比特幣在減半前大約28-32 天進行了減半前的回撤。

Bitcoin Enters "Danger Zone" as Pseudonymous Trader Warns of Impending Retrace

匿名交易員警告即將回撤，比特幣進入“危險區”

Amidst a volatile market downturn, Bitcoin (BTC) has plummeted nearly 4% on Friday, dipping below the $64,000 mark. This sharp decline has raised concerns among traders and analysts, particularly in light of a recent warning from a pseudonymous crypto trader known as Rekt Capital. According to Rekt Capital, Bitcoin has officially entered the "danger zone," a period historically associated with significant pre-halving price retracements.

在市場動盪低迷的情況下，比特幣 (BTC) 週五暴跌近 4%，跌破 64,000 美元大關。這種急劇下跌引起了交易員和分析師的擔憂，特別是考慮到一位名為 Rekt Capital 的匿名加密貨幣交易商最近發出的警告。據 Rekt Capital 稱，比特幣已正式進入“危險區”，這段時期歷史上與減半前價格大幅回檔有關。

The "danger zone" is a crucial time window leading up to a Bitcoin halving event, which occurs approximately every four years. During this period, Bitcoin's price has historically experienced a pullback as investors anticipate the upcoming reduction in block rewards. With the next halving event scheduled for approximately 26 days away, Bitcoin's current downturn is particularly noteworthy.

「危險區」是導致比特幣減半事件的關鍵時間窗口，大約每四年發生一次。在此期間，由於投資者預期區塊獎勵即將減少，比特幣的價格歷來經歷過回檔。距離下一次減半事件大約還有 26 天，比特幣目前的低迷尤其值得注意。

Rekt Capital emphasizes the uncertainty surrounding whether the bottom of this retrace has been reached, highlighting the potential for further downside within this critical window. Drawing parallels with past halving cycles, Rekt Capital observes that Bitcoin typically undergoes a pre-halving retrace approximately 28-32 days before the event.

Rekt Capital 強調了此次回檔是否已觸底的不確定性，並強調了在這關鍵視窗內進一步下行的可能性。與過去的減半週期相比較，Rekt Capital 觀察到，比特幣通常會在減半事件發生前約 28-32 天進行預減半回溯。

In 2016, Bitcoin's pre-halving retrace occurred approximately 28 days prior to the halving, while in 2024, it occurred approximately 32 days before. The analysis suggests that Bitcoin may need to maintain its current highs to avoid a repeat of past downturns.

2016年，比特幣的減半前回溯發生在減半前約28天，而2024年則發生在減半前約32天。分析表明，比特幣可能需要維持當前的高位，以避免重蹈過去的低迷時期。

However, Rekt Capital's analysis also offers a glimpse into the potential timing of Bitcoin's next bull market peak. According to the trader, Bitcoin tends to perform a bull market top 266-315 days after it breaks its old all-time high. Given that Bitcoin broke its previous all-time highs last week, Rekt Capital predicts that the next peak could occur between late November 2024 and late January 2025.

然而，Rekt Capital 的分析也讓我們了解了比特幣下一個多頭市場高峰的潛在時機。據該交易員稱，比特幣往往會在突破歷史新高後 266-315 天出現牛市見頂。鑑於比特幣上週突破了先前的歷史高點，Rekt Capital 預測下一個高峰可能會出現在 2024 年 11 月下旬至 2025 年 1 月下旬之間。

Extending this forecast further, adjustments for the duration beyond old all-time highs could push the bull market peak to mid-December 2024 or mid-February 2025. While these projections are speculative, they provide valuable insights into the potential trajectory of Bitcoin's price over the coming months and years.

進一步擴展這一預測，對歷史高點之外的持續時間進行調整可能會將牛市高峰推至2024 年12 月中旬或2025 年2 月中旬。雖然這些預測是推測性的，但它們為比特幣價格的潛在軌跡提供了寶貴的見解。未來幾個月和幾年。

As Bitcoin navigates the "danger zone," investors should remain vigilant and monitor market developments closely. The current retracement could present an opportunity for bull market accumulation, but it is crucial to manage risk and consider the potential for further downside. Rekt Capital's analysis serves as a timely reminder of the cyclicality of Bitcoin's price movements and highlights the importance of understanding historical patterns in making informed investment decisions.

隨著比特幣進入“危險區域”，投資者應保持警惕並密切關注市場動態。目前的回檔可能會帶來牛市吸籌的機會，但管理風險並考慮進一步下行的可能性至關重要。 Rekt Capital 的分析隨時提醒人們注意比特幣價格變動的週期性，並強調了解歷史模式在做出明智投資決策時的重要性。