比特币进入整合阶段，随着主导地位从比特币转移，山寨币季节可能处于早期阶段

比特币似乎正在进入盘整阶段，价格范围在 90,000 美元至 98,000 美元之间。该区间受到强劲看涨的支撑

Bitcoin price appears to be consolidating within a range, as evident from the daily TBO indicator. The Slow line is angled upwards, the On-Balance Volume is trending, and the trading volume has been robust over the past few weeks, all of which are bullish signals. However, the past two days have shown a decline in volume, which aligns with two TBT Bearish Divergence signals. These signals suggest a potential shift, but the broader bullish context tempers concerns for now.

从每日 TBO 指标可以看出，比特币价格似乎正在某个区间内盘整。慢线向上倾斜，平衡量呈趋势，过去几周交易量强劲，所有这些都是看涨信号。然而，过去两天成交量有所下降，这与两个 TBT 看跌背离信号相符。这些信号表明潜在的转变，但更广泛的看涨背景暂时缓解了担忧。

Bitcoin dominance has continued to decrease, indicating that the market is reallocating dominance elsewhere. Stablecoin dominance remains flat, and Ethereum dominance has shown no significant upward movement, leaving others.D—the dominance of smaller-cap altcoins—as the likely recipient of market attention. This shift is a bullish indicator for altcoins, especially as Bitcoin volatility (measured by BVOL7D) decreases, creating favorable conditions for weekend altcoin rallies.

比特币的主导地位持续下降，表明市场正在将主导地位重新分配到其他地方。稳定币的主导地位仍然持平，以太坊的主导地位没有表现出明显的上升趋势，而其他.D（小盘山寨币的主导地位）可能会受到市场关注。这种转变对山寨币来说是一个看涨指标，特别是随着比特币波动性（以 BVOL7D 衡量）下降，为周末山寨币反弹创造了有利条件。

Altcoin Season Indicators

山寨币季节指标

Altcoin season could be in its early stages as dominance shifts away from Bitcoin. The pattern observed since August—where Bitcoin dominates midweek but altcoins rally during weekends—is continuing. BVOL7D's decline suggests reduced Bitcoin volatility, while BTC.D's downward trend confirms a diminishing grip of Bitcoin on the overall market. These combined factors create a ripe environment for altcoins to shine over the weekend.

随着主导地位从比特币转移，山寨币季节可能正处于早期阶段。自 8 月份以来观察到的模式——比特币在周中占据主导地位，但山寨币在周末上涨——仍在继续。 BVOL7D 的下跌表明比特币波动性降低，而 BTC.D 的下跌趋势则证实了比特币对整个市场的控制力正在减弱。这些综合因素为山寨币在周末大放异彩创造了成熟的环境。

Charts of individual altcoins are already reflecting this trend. Many altcoins recover by Friday and pump significantly through the weekend, following the same cyclical pattern. Traders should focus on these dominance levels and volatility metrics to identify potential opportunities in the altcoin market.

各个山寨币的图表已经反映了这一趋势。许多山寨币在周五之前恢复，并在周末大幅上涨，遵循相同的周期性模式。交易者应关注这些主导水平和波动性指标，以识别山寨币市场的潜在机会。

TradFi Observations and Potential Crypto Impact

TradFi 观察和潜在的加密影响

The DXY (US Dollar Index) has retreated to the daily TBO Fast line, a move that typically correlates with bullish sentiment in stocks and crypto markets. U.S. indices, including the SPX, DJI, and NDX, continue to show strength, further bolstered by the low levels of the VIX (volatility index). However, not all signals are uniformly bullish. The FANG index and NVDA are showing early signs of weakness, with TBT Bearish Divergence signals and declining RSI and OBV trends.

DXY（美元指数）已回落至每日 TBO 快线，这一走势通常与股票和加密货币市场的看涨情绪相关。包括 SPX、DJI 和 NDX 在内的美国指数继续表现强劲，受到 VIX（波动性指数）较低水平的进一步支撑。然而，并非所有信号都是一致看涨的。 FANG 指数和 NVDA 显示出疲软的早期迹象，出现 TBT 看跌背离信号以及 RSI 和 OBV 趋势下降。

NIKKEI's Bearish Setup and Its Potential Global Impact

日经指数的看跌格局及其潜在的全球影响

A significant outlier in the otherwise bullish global market sentiment is the NIKKEi. The index has been chopping sideways in a tight range, a pattern often considered bearish due to the lack of a clear trend. Declining volume, bearish OBV, and neutral RSI on both the daily and weekly timeframes add to concerns. A TBO Bear Formula signal—a bearish combination of TBO Close Long, TBO Cross Down, and TBO Open Short—has also appeared, reinforcing the bearish outlook.

日经指数是全球市场乐观情绪中的一个显着异常。该指数一直在窄幅区间内横盘整理，由于缺乏明确的趋势，这种模式通常被认为是看跌的。每日和每周时间框架上的成交量下降、看跌的 OBV 和中性 RSI 加剧了人们的担忧。 TBO 熊市公式信号（TBO 平仓多头、TBO 交叉下跌和 TBO 开空头的看跌组合）也出现，强化了看跌前景。

If the NIKKEI experiences a -6% drop, the ripple effects could extend beyond Japanese markets, impacting global TradFi markets and crypto. Historically, negative movements in the NIKKEI have influenced the S&P 500 and other indices, with corresponding impacts on Bitcoin and altcoins.

如果日经指数下跌 -6%，连锁反应可能会超出日本市场，影响全球 TradFi 市场和加密货币。从历史上看，日经指数的负面走势影响了标准普尔 500 指数和其他指数，并对比特币和山寨币产生了相应的影响。

Weekend Outlook and Precautions

周末展望及注意事项

As Bitcoin consolidates and dominance shifts toward altcoins, the weekend presents an opportunity for smaller-cap tokens to rally. Traders should remain vigilant, as external factors like the NIKKEI's performance could create unexpected turbulence. While the macro trend for crypto remains bullish, pullbacks are an essential part of market growth, providing opportunities for strategic entries. Traders should stay informed and adapt to emerging trends in both crypto and traditional markets.

随着比特币的整合和主导地位转向山寨币，周末为小型代币提供了反弹的机会。交易者应保持警惕，因为日经指数的表现等外部因素可能会造成意想不到的动荡。尽管加密货币的宏观趋势仍然看涨，但回调是市场增长的重要组成部分，为战略进入提供了机会。交易者应随时了解情况并适应加密货币和传统市场的新兴趋势。