比特幣進入整合階段，隨著主導地位從比特幣轉移，山寨幣季節可能處於早期階段

比特幣似乎正在進入盤整階段，價格範圍在 90,000 美元至 98,000 美元之間。該區間受到強勁看漲的支撐

Bitcoin price appears to be consolidating within a range, as evident from the daily TBO indicator. The Slow line is angled upwards, the On-Balance Volume is trending, and the trading volume has been robust over the past few weeks, all of which are bullish signals. However, the past two days have shown a decline in volume, which aligns with two TBT Bearish Divergence signals. These signals suggest a potential shift, but the broader bullish context tempers concerns for now.

從每日 TBO 指標可以看出，比特幣價格似乎正在某個區間內盤整。慢線向上傾斜，平衡量呈趨勢，過去幾週交易量強勁，所有這些都是看漲訊號。然而，過去兩天成交量有所下降，這與兩個 TBT 看跌背離訊號相符。這些訊號表明潛在的轉變，但更廣泛的看漲背景暫時緩解了擔憂。

Bitcoin dominance has continued to decrease, indicating that the market is reallocating dominance elsewhere. Stablecoin dominance remains flat, and Ethereum dominance has shown no significant upward movement, leaving others.D—the dominance of smaller-cap altcoins—as the likely recipient of market attention. This shift is a bullish indicator for altcoins, especially as Bitcoin volatility (measured by BVOL7D) decreases, creating favorable conditions for weekend altcoin rallies.

比特幣的主導地位持續下降，表明市場正在將主導地位重新分配到其他地方。穩定幣的主導地位仍然持平，以太坊的主導地位沒有表現出明顯的上升趨勢，而其他.D（小盤山寨幣的主導地位）可能會受到市場關注。這種轉變對山寨幣來說是一個看漲指標，特別是隨著比特幣波動性（以 BVOL7D 衡量）下降，為週末山寨幣反彈創造了有利條件。

Altcoin Season Indicators

山寨幣季節指標

Altcoin season could be in its early stages as dominance shifts away from Bitcoin. The pattern observed since August—where Bitcoin dominates midweek but altcoins rally during weekends—is continuing. BVOL7D's decline suggests reduced Bitcoin volatility, while BTC.D's downward trend confirms a diminishing grip of Bitcoin on the overall market. These combined factors create a ripe environment for altcoins to shine over the weekend.

隨著主導地位從比特幣轉移，山寨幣季節可能正處於早期階段。自 8 月以來觀察到的模式——比特幣在周中佔據主導地位，但山寨幣在周末上漲——仍在繼續。 BVOL7D 的下跌表明比特幣波動性降低，而 BTC.D 的下跌趨勢則證實了比特幣對整個市場的控制力正在減弱。這些綜合因素為山寨幣在周末大放異彩創造了成熟的環境。

Charts of individual altcoins are already reflecting this trend. Many altcoins recover by Friday and pump significantly through the weekend, following the same cyclical pattern. Traders should focus on these dominance levels and volatility metrics to identify potential opportunities in the altcoin market.

各個山寨幣的圖表已經反映了這個趨勢。許多山寨幣在周五之前恢復，並在周末大幅上漲，遵循相同的週期性模式。交易者應關注這些主導水平和波動性指標，以識別山寨幣市場的潛在機會。

TradFi Observations and Potential Crypto Impact

TradFi 觀察和潛在的加密影響

The DXY (US Dollar Index) has retreated to the daily TBO Fast line, a move that typically correlates with bullish sentiment in stocks and crypto markets. U.S. indices, including the SPX, DJI, and NDX, continue to show strength, further bolstered by the low levels of the VIX (volatility index). However, not all signals are uniformly bullish. The FANG index and NVDA are showing early signs of weakness, with TBT Bearish Divergence signals and declining RSI and OBV trends.

DXY（美元指數）已回落至每日 TBO 快線，這一走勢通常與股票和加密貨幣市場的看漲情緒有關。包括 SPX、DJI 和 NDX 在內的美國指數持續表現強勁，並受到 VIX（波動性指數）較低水準的進一步支撐。然而，並非所有訊號都是一致看漲的。 FANG 指數和 NVDA 顯示出疲軟的早期跡象，出現 TBT 看跌背離訊號以及 RSI 和 OBV 趨勢下降。

NIKKEI's Bearish Setup and Its Potential Global Impact

日經指數的看跌格局及其潛在的全球影響

A significant outlier in the otherwise bullish global market sentiment is the NIKKEi. The index has been chopping sideways in a tight range, a pattern often considered bearish due to the lack of a clear trend. Declining volume, bearish OBV, and neutral RSI on both the daily and weekly timeframes add to concerns. A TBO Bear Formula signal—a bearish combination of TBO Close Long, TBO Cross Down, and TBO Open Short—has also appeared, reinforcing the bearish outlook.

日經指數是全球市場樂觀情緒中的一個顯著異常。該指數一直在窄幅區間內橫盤整理，由於缺乏明確的趨勢，這種模式通常被認為是看跌的。每日和每週時間框架上的成交量下降、看跌的 OBV 和中性 RSI 加劇了人們的擔憂。 TBO 熊市公式訊號（TBO 平倉多頭、TBO 交叉下跌和 TBO 開空頭的看跌組合）也出現，強化了看跌前景。

If the NIKKEI experiences a -6% drop, the ripple effects could extend beyond Japanese markets, impacting global TradFi markets and crypto. Historically, negative movements in the NIKKEI have influenced the S&P 500 and other indices, with corresponding impacts on Bitcoin and altcoins.

如果日經指數下跌 -6%，連鎖反應可能會超越日本市場，影響全球 TradFi 市場和加密貨幣。從歷史上看，日經指數的負面走勢影響了標準普爾 500 指數和其他指數，並對比特幣和山寨幣產生了相應的影響。

Weekend Outlook and Precautions

週末展望及注意事項

As Bitcoin consolidates and dominance shifts toward altcoins, the weekend presents an opportunity for smaller-cap tokens to rally. Traders should remain vigilant, as external factors like the NIKKEI's performance could create unexpected turbulence. While the macro trend for crypto remains bullish, pullbacks are an essential part of market growth, providing opportunities for strategic entries. Traders should stay informed and adapt to emerging trends in both crypto and traditional markets.

隨著比特幣的整合和主導地位轉向山寨幣，週末為小型代幣提供了反彈的機會。交易者應保持警惕，因為日經指數的表現等外部因素可能會造成意想不到的動盪。儘管加密貨幣的宏觀趨勢仍然看漲，但回調是市場成長的重要組成部分，為策略進入提供了機會。交易者應隨時了解情況並適應加密貨幣和傳統市場的新興趨勢。