由于替代币季节可能已经开始，比特币优势比率低于50％

根据Binance的说法，新的AltCoins看到了数量分布的变化模式，提供了早期证据，表明Altcoin市场相对于比特币的主导地位而获得了动力。

Cryptocurrency investors have been eagerly awaiting the fabled "Altcoin Season," a period when a significant percentage of top altcoins outperform Bitcoin over a specific timeframe. While many reports have stated that this season is yet to arrive, a growing body of market data suggests otherwise.

加密货币投资者一直在热切地等待着寓言的“ altcoin季节”，在这个时期，在特定时间表上，很大一部分顶级替代币优于比特币。尽管许多报道说这个季节尚未到来，但越来越多的市场数据表明。

According to recent data from Binance, new altcoins are seeing shifting patterns in volume distribution, providing early evidence that the altcoin market is gaining momentum relative to Bitcoin’s dominance.

根据Binance的最新数据，新的Altcoins正在看到数量分布的变化模式，提供了早期证据，表明altcoin市场相对于比特币的优势正在增长。

How to Enter the Altcoin Season

如何进入Altcoin季节

Generally, we enter the Altcoin Season when 75% of the top 50 coins perform better than Bitcoin over the last 90 days. The crypto market intelligence platform, Token Terminal, calculates and visualizes this phenomenon with its Altcoin Season Index.

通常，我们进入Altcoin季节，当时50个硬币中有75％的表现在过去90天内的表现要好于比特币。代币终端的加密市场智能平台通过其Altcoin季节指数来计算和可视化这一现象。

This threshold was crossed in early 2025, with approximately 78% of top altcoins outpacing Bitcoin returns over the 90-day period.

该阈值在2025年初越过，在90天的时间内，大约78％的顶级替代币超过了比特币的回报。

The Bitcoin Dominance ratio—Bitcoin's market capitalization as a percentage of the total cryptocurrency market—has fallen below 55% for the first time since mid-2023. This decreasing dominance typically signals capital flowing from Bitcoin into alternative cryptocurrencies.

比特币优势比（Bitcoin的市值占加密货币总市场的百分比）自2023年中期以来首次降至55％以下。这种降低的主导地位通常标志着从比特币流向替代加密货币的资本。

While trading volume on Binance still shows Bitcoin leading in absolute terms, the proportion of altcoin trading is steadily increasing. As of November, the volume of top 50 altcoins (excluding stablecoins) on Binance is about 38% of total Bitcoin volume.

虽然Binance的交易量仍然显示出绝对的比特币，但Altcoin交易的比例正在稳步增加。截至11月，二比前50个山寨币（不包括Stablecoins）的数量约为总比特币量的38％。

Current performance data from Binance shows an average increase of 47% year-to-date for Layer-1 alternatives, significantly outperforming Bitcoin's 22% growth during the same period.

目前来自二手体的绩效数据显示，第1层替代方案的平均增长率为47％，在同一时期，比特币的增长率明显优于22％。

DeFi tokens have experienced even stronger performance, with an average gain of 83% across the top 20 DeFi assets available on Binance and other exchanges.

Defi令牌的性能甚至更强，在二手资产和其他交易所可用的前20名DEFI资产中，平均增长率为83％。

The Altcoin Season Index currently registers a score of 20, firmly in "Bitcoin Season" territory. Generally, scores above 75 indicate that we have entered this phase. This is despite the altcoin market capitalization having grown by approximately $487 billion in 2025 alone, representing a 31% increase that outpaces Bitcoin's market cap growth of 19%.

Altcoin赛季指数目前记录得分为20，在“比特币季节”领域牢固。通常，得分高于75，表明我们已经进入了此阶段。尽管仅在2025年就增长了约4870亿美元，但这仍然增长了31％，而比特币的市值增长了19％。

Bitcoin Price Remains Bounded

比特币价格仍然有限

While Bitcoin remains the dominant cryptocurrency by market capitalization, its price action has been consolidating after reaching new all-time highs earlier this year. According to price data from Binance, Bitcoin has been trading in a narrower range of $69,000 to $78,000, while select altcoins have broken out to new local highs.

尽管比特币仍然是市场资本化的主要加密货币，但其价格行动在今年早些时候达到了新的历史新高之后一直在巩固。根据Binance的价格数据，比特币的交易范围为69,000美元至78,000美元，而精选的AltCoins已爆发到新的本地高点。

This pattern of Bitcoin consolidation often precedes periods of altcoin outperformance as traders on Binance and other platforms seek higher returns in alternative assets.

比特币合并的模式通常在替代品和其他平台上的交易者寻求替代资产的更高回报之前，经常在替代品的售出时期之前超过了山寨币的表现。

Bitcoin's decreasing volatility, now at its lowest levels since November 2023, reflects a relaxing of the cryptocurrency market since the November Election.

比特币的降低波动率现在是自2023年11月以来的最低水平，反映了自11月大选以来的加密货币市场的放松。

Historically, periods of low Bitcoin volatility have coincided with increased risk appetite for altcoin exposure.

从历史上看，低比特币波动率的时期与山寨币暴露的风险增加相吻合。

Expert Opinion

专家意见

Cryptocurrency market analysts have acknowledged that with the general downturn of the cryptocurrency market, Altcoin Season may be delayed until Bitcoin's market dominance turns around.

加密货币市场分析师已经承认，随着加密货币市场的一般低迷，山寨币季节可能会推迟，直到比特币的市场统治地位变化为止。

“Altcoins have been steadily losing ground to Bitcoin, and I believe altcoins won't have a sustained season until 2025,” cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen said in a recent YouTube video.

加密货币分析师本杰明·考恩（Benjamin Cowen）在最近的YouTube视频中说：“ AltCoins一直稳步失去比特币，我相信Altcoins直到2025年才有持续的季节。”

“Historically, alt seasons follow a strong Bitcoin rally, so unless Bitcoin experiences a parabolic run, we might not see an alt season.”

“从历史上看，Alt季节遵循强大的比特币集会，因此，除非比特币经历抛物线抛物线奔跑，否则我们可能看不到ALT季节。”

Technical indicators further support this view.

技术指标进一步支持此观点。

Prior to January 17, the Altcoin/Bitcoin Market Cap Ratio had broken above its 200-day moving average—a technical signal that has historically preceded extended periods of altcoin outperformance.

在1月17日之前，AltCoin/Bitcoin市值比率超过了200天的移动平均线，这是一个技术信号，其历史上一直延长了AltCoin超过表现的延长。

Trading volume on Binance for altcoins increased by 67% in Q1 2025 compared to Q4 2024, while Bitcoin's volume increased by only 23% during the same period.

与第四季度2024相比，第1季度的AltCoins的均值交易量增加了67％，而在同一时期，比特币的量仅增加了23％。

However, recent activity in the market has largely wiped out any confidence—in the short-term—of an Altcoin Season in 2025.

但是，在2025年，市场上最近在市场上的活动（在短期内）消除了任何信心。

Investment Implications

投资影响

For cryptocurrency investors, this data suggests a potential shift in optimal portfolio allocation. While Bitcoin remains an essential cornerstone of any cryptocurrency portfolio, the current market dynamics may favor increasing exposure to select altcoins.

对于加密货币投资者，该数据表明最佳投资组合分配的潜在转变。尽管比特币仍然是任何加密货币投资组合中的必不可少的基石，但当前的市场动态可能有利于增加对选择的山寨币的风险。

Traders on Binance have been adjusting their portfolios accordingly, with platform data showing increased altcoin position sizes relative to Bitcoin holdings.

Binance的交易者一直在相应地调整其投资组合，平台数据显示，相对于比特币持有量增加了Altcoin位置的大小。

However, it's crucial to remember that Altcoin Seasons are typically characterized by higher volatility and risk.

但是，要记住，山寨币季节通常以更高的波动性和风险为特征。

Investors should conduct thorough research and consider their risk tolerance before significantly altering their cryptocurrency allocations.

投资者应进行彻底的研究并考虑其风险承受能力，然后再大大改变其加密货币分配。

Overall, while many investors have been waiting for Altcoin Season to arrive, comprehensive market data suggests it may have already begun.

总体而言，尽管许多投资者一直在等待Altcoin季节到来，但全面的市场数据表明它可能已经开始。

Multiple indicators including the Altcoin Season Index, Bitcoin dominance ratio, and relative performance metrics all point toward confusion of when an active Altcoin Season may begin.

包括AltCoin季节指数，比特币优势比和相对性能指标在内的多个指标都可能何时开始一个主动的Altcoin季节。