由於替代幣季節可能已經開始，比特幣優勢比率低於50％

根據Binance的說法，新的AltCoins看到了數量分佈的變化模式，提供了早期證據，表明Altcoin市場相對於比特幣的主導地位而獲得了動力。

Cryptocurrency investors have been eagerly awaiting the fabled "Altcoin Season," a period when a significant percentage of top altcoins outperform Bitcoin over a specific timeframe. While many reports have stated that this season is yet to arrive, a growing body of market data suggests otherwise.

加密貨幣投資者一直在熱切地等待著寓言的“ altcoin季節”，在這個時期，在特定時間表上，很大一部分頂級替代幣優於比特幣。儘管許多報導說這個季節尚未到來，但越來越多的市場數據表明。

According to recent data from Binance, new altcoins are seeing shifting patterns in volume distribution, providing early evidence that the altcoin market is gaining momentum relative to Bitcoin’s dominance.

根據Binance的最新數據，新的Altcoins正在看到數量分佈的變化模式，提供了早期證據，表明altcoin市場相對於比特幣的優勢正在增長。

How to Enter the Altcoin Season

如何進入Altcoin季節

Generally, we enter the Altcoin Season when 75% of the top 50 coins perform better than Bitcoin over the last 90 days. The crypto market intelligence platform, Token Terminal, calculates and visualizes this phenomenon with its Altcoin Season Index.

通常，我們進入Altcoin季節，當時50個硬幣中有75％的表現在過去90天內的表現要好於比特幣。代幣終端的加密市場智能平台通過其Altcoin季節指數來計算和可視化這一現象。

This threshold was crossed in early 2025, with approximately 78% of top altcoins outpacing Bitcoin returns over the 90-day period.

該閾值在2025年初越過，在90天的時間內，大約78％的頂級替代幣超過了比特幣的回報。

The Bitcoin Dominance ratio—Bitcoin's market capitalization as a percentage of the total cryptocurrency market—has fallen below 55% for the first time since mid-2023. This decreasing dominance typically signals capital flowing from Bitcoin into alternative cryptocurrencies.

比特幣優勢比（Bitcoin的市值佔加密貨幣總市場的百分比）自2023年中期以來首次降至55％以下。這種降低的主導地位通常標誌著從比特幣流向替代加密貨幣的資本。

While trading volume on Binance still shows Bitcoin leading in absolute terms, the proportion of altcoin trading is steadily increasing. As of November, the volume of top 50 altcoins (excluding stablecoins) on Binance is about 38% of total Bitcoin volume.

雖然Binance的交易量仍然顯示出絕對的比特幣，但Altcoin交易的比例正在穩步增加。截至11月，二比前50個山寨幣（不包括Stablecoins）的數量約為總比特幣量的38％。

Current performance data from Binance shows an average increase of 47% year-to-date for Layer-1 alternatives, significantly outperforming Bitcoin's 22% growth during the same period.

目前來自二手體的績效數據顯示，第1層替代方案的平均增長率為47％，在同一時期，比特幣的增長率明顯優於22％。

DeFi tokens have experienced even stronger performance, with an average gain of 83% across the top 20 DeFi assets available on Binance and other exchanges.

Defi令牌的性能甚至更強，在二手資產和其他交易所可用的前20名DEFI資產中，平均增長率為83％。

The Altcoin Season Index currently registers a score of 20, firmly in "Bitcoin Season" territory. Generally, scores above 75 indicate that we have entered this phase. This is despite the altcoin market capitalization having grown by approximately $487 billion in 2025 alone, representing a 31% increase that outpaces Bitcoin's market cap growth of 19%.

Altcoin賽季指數目前記錄得分為20，在“比特幣季節”領域牢固。通常，得分高於75，表明我們已經進入了此階段。儘管僅在2025年就增長了約4870億美元，但這仍然增長了31％，而比特幣的市值增長了19％。

Bitcoin Price Remains Bounded

比特幣價格仍然有限

While Bitcoin remains the dominant cryptocurrency by market capitalization, its price action has been consolidating after reaching new all-time highs earlier this year. According to price data from Binance, Bitcoin has been trading in a narrower range of $69,000 to $78,000, while select altcoins have broken out to new local highs.

儘管比特幣仍然是市場資本化的主要加密貨幣，但其價格行動在今年早些時候達到了新的歷史新高之後一直在鞏固。根據Binance的價格數據，比特幣的交易範圍為69,000美元至78,000美元，而精選的AltCoins已爆發到新的本地高點。

This pattern of Bitcoin consolidation often precedes periods of altcoin outperformance as traders on Binance and other platforms seek higher returns in alternative assets.

比特幣合併的模式通常在替代品和其他平台上的交易者尋求替代資產的更高回報之前，經常在替代品的售出時期之前超過了山寨幣的表現。

Bitcoin's decreasing volatility, now at its lowest levels since November 2023, reflects a relaxing of the cryptocurrency market since the November Election.

比特幣的降低波動率現在是自2023年11月以來的最低水平，反映了自11月大選以來的加密貨幣市場的放鬆。

Historically, periods of low Bitcoin volatility have coincided with increased risk appetite for altcoin exposure.

從歷史上看，低比特幣波動率的時期與山寨幣暴露的風險增加相吻合。

Expert Opinion

專家意見

Cryptocurrency market analysts have acknowledged that with the general downturn of the cryptocurrency market, Altcoin Season may be delayed until Bitcoin's market dominance turns around.

加密貨幣市場分析師已經承認，隨著加密貨幣市場的一般低迷，山寨幣季節可能會推遲，直到比特幣的市場統治地位變化為止。

“Altcoins have been steadily losing ground to Bitcoin, and I believe altcoins won't have a sustained season until 2025,” cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen said in a recent YouTube video.

加密貨幣分析師本傑明·考恩（Benjamin Cowen）在最近的YouTube視頻中說：“ AltCoins一直穩步失去比特幣，我相信Altcoins直到2025年才有持續的季節。”

“Historically, alt seasons follow a strong Bitcoin rally, so unless Bitcoin experiences a parabolic run, we might not see an alt season.”

“從歷史上看，Alt季節遵循強大的比特幣集會，因此，除非比特幣經歷拋物線拋物線奔跑，否則我們可能看不到ALT季節。”

Technical indicators further support this view.

技術指標進一步支持此觀點。

Prior to January 17, the Altcoin/Bitcoin Market Cap Ratio had broken above its 200-day moving average—a technical signal that has historically preceded extended periods of altcoin outperformance.

在1月17日之前，AltCoin/Bitcoin市值比率超過了200天的移動平均線，這是一個技術信號，其歷史上一直延長了AltCoin超過表現的延長。

Trading volume on Binance for altcoins increased by 67% in Q1 2025 compared to Q4 2024, while Bitcoin's volume increased by only 23% during the same period.

與第四季度2024相比，第1季度的AltCoins的均值交易量增加了67％，而在同一時期，比特幣的量僅增加了23％。

However, recent activity in the market has largely wiped out any confidence—in the short-term—of an Altcoin Season in 2025.

但是，在2025年，市場上最近在市場上的活動（在短期內）消除了任何信心。

Investment Implications

投資影響

For cryptocurrency investors, this data suggests a potential shift in optimal portfolio allocation. While Bitcoin remains an essential cornerstone of any cryptocurrency portfolio, the current market dynamics may favor increasing exposure to select altcoins.

對於加密貨幣投資者，該數據表明最佳投資組合分配的潛在轉變。儘管比特幣仍然是任何加密貨幣投資組合中的必不可少的基石，但當前的市場動態可能有利於增加對選擇的山寨幣的風險。

Traders on Binance have been adjusting their portfolios accordingly, with platform data showing increased altcoin position sizes relative to Bitcoin holdings.

Binance的交易者一直在相應地調整其投資組合，平台數據顯示，相對於比特幣持有量增加了Altcoin位置的大小。

However, it's crucial to remember that Altcoin Seasons are typically characterized by higher volatility and risk.

但是，要記住，山寨幣季節通常以更高的波動性和風險為特徵。

Investors should conduct thorough research and consider their risk tolerance before significantly altering their cryptocurrency allocations.

投資者應進行徹底的研究並考慮其風險承受能力，然後再大大改變其加密貨幣分配。

Overall, while many investors have been waiting for Altcoin Season to arrive, comprehensive market data suggests it may have already begun.

總體而言，儘管許多投資者一直在等待Altcoin季節到來，但全面的市場數據表明它可能已經開始。

Multiple indicators including the Altcoin Season Index, Bitcoin dominance ratio, and relative performance metrics all point toward confusion of when an active Altcoin Season may begin.

包括AltCoin季節指數，比特幣優勢比和相對性能指標在內的多個指標都可能何時開始一個主動的Altcoin季節。