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比特币 [BTC] 在未能维持 6.6 万美元的水平后,可能会出现价格调整。 AMBCrypto 的分析表明,61,000 美元可能成为下一个支撑位,标志着关键底部。
Bitcoin’s recent failure to hold on to the $66K price level has opened up the possibility of a price correction. AMBCrypto’s analysis suggests that the next support could be at $61K, which might also mark a key bottom.
比特币最近未能守住 6.6 万美元的价格水平,开启了价格调整的可能性。 AMBCrypto 的分析表明,下一个支撑位可能是 61,000 美元,这也可能标志着一个关键底部。
Historically, altcoin seasons have followed Bitcoin’s bottoming. If this pattern repeats, then the current dip could trigger the next Altcoin Season.
从历史上看,山寨币季节是在比特币触底之后出现的。如果这种模式重复,那么当前的下跌可能会触发下一个山寨币季节。
Bitcoin’s market dominance currently stands at 57.37%, which has significantly declined from its recent peak of 58.59% ten days ago. This falling dominance may indicate growing confidence in altcoins.
比特币的市场主导地位目前为 57.37%,较十天前的近期峰值 58.59% 大幅下降。这种主导地位的下降可能表明人们对山寨币的信心不断增强。
To put things in perspective, BTC tested the $66K overhead resistance after a steady uptrend in the past two days, allowing many stakeholders to book profits. Their exit could, in turn, mark the next bottom.
从长远来看,BTC 在过去两天的稳定上涨趋势后测试了 6.6 万美元的上方阻力位,这让许多利益相关者得以获利了结。反过来,他们的退出可能标志着下一个底部。
Moreover, this dip might attract renewed interest from hodlers, setting the stage for potential altcoin growth.
此外,这种下跌可能会重新吸引持有者的兴趣,为潜在的山寨币增长奠定基础。
Currently, 17 out of the top 50 coins are ranked above Bitcoin, resulting in a 34% altcoin dominance.
目前,前 50 名代币中有 17 种排名高于比特币,山寨币占据 34% 的主导地位。
With many altcoins showing bullish momentum during the recent rally, another cycle might be needed to begin the next altcoin season. Hence, keeping an eye on the upcoming Bitcoin cycle is necessary to gauge when these coins might start to rally. In simpler terms…
由于许多山寨币在最近的反弹中表现出看涨势头,可能需要另一个周期才能开始下一个山寨币季节。因此,有必要密切关注即将到来的比特币周期,以判断这些代币何时可能开始反弹。简单来说……
Bitcoin consolidation might be the key
比特币整合可能是关键
While the market enthusiasm hints at a bullish start for Bitcoin in October, a different narrative unfolds when observing the daily price chart.
虽然市场热情暗示比特币在 10 月份将迎来看涨开局,但观察每日价格图表时,却出现了不同的情况。
If the mid-July rally repeats – wherein BTC bulls bounced off the $66K resistance and went on to breach the $68K level – Bitcoin dominance may be reinstated, diminishing the prospects of an altcoin season.
如果 7 月中旬的反弹重演——比特币多头从 6.6 万美元的阻力位反弹并继续突破 6.8 万美元的水平——比特币的主导地位可能会恢复,从而削弱山寨币季节的前景。
However, the sharp decline in the RSI indicated a loss in buying momentum. Should Bitcoin enter a consolidation phase, it could allow major altcoins to take the center stage.
然而,RSI 大幅下跌表明买盘动力减弱。如果比特币进入整合阶段,它可能会让主要的山寨币占据中心舞台。
Moreover, rising USDT outflows suggested that more stablecoins were being withdrawn from the exchanges.
此外,USDT 流出量的增加表明更多的稳定币正在从交易所撤出。
Historically, such withdrawals often coincided with Bitcoin losing a major resistance zone, prompting investors to turn to USDT as a safer bet.
从历史上看,此类提款通常与比特币失去主要阻力区同时发生,促使投资者转向 USDT 作为更安全的投资。
Furthermore, these investors found altcoins to be more attractive assets while waiting for Bitcoin to dip.
此外,这些投资者在等待比特币下跌时发现山寨币是更具吸引力的资产。
As a result, liquidity flowed into altcoins, which were cheaper alternatives, especially during increasing volatility.
结果,流动性流入山寨币,这是更便宜的替代品,尤其是在波动性加剧的情况下。
To summarize, if BTC consolidates at or below $64K, investors may choose to diversify their portfolios, potentially leading to a surge in altcoins.
总而言之,如果 BTC 盘整于 6.4 万美元或以下,投资者可能会选择分散投资组合,从而可能导致山寨币价格飙升。
The season might be around the corner
季节可能即将来临
Apart from the market sentiments, AMBCrypto’s analysis also found a hidden pattern in the historical trends.
除了市场情绪之外,AMBCrypto 的分析还发现了历史趋势中隐藏的模式。
Interestingly, when BTC dominance bottomed six years ago, a reversal occurred 761 days later, marking the beginning of an altcoin season.
有趣的是,当 BTC 的主导地位在六年前触底时,761 天后发生了逆转,标志着山寨币季节的开始。
In essence, this pattern suggests that a similar timeline could signal the next altcoin season soon.
从本质上讲,这种模式表明类似的时间线可能预示着下一个山寨币季节很快就会到来。
In other words, if Bitcoin dominance is currently declining, it could eventually lead to a resurgence in altcoin values if history were to repeat itself.
换句话说,如果比特币的主导地位目前正在下降,如果历史重演,它最终可能会导致山寨币价值的复苏。
Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Prediction 2024-25
阅读比特币 [BTC] 2024-25 价格预测
As highlighted earlier, the current market conditions signaled an optimal time for altcoins to surge, driven by declining Bitcoin dominance, increasing USDT outflows, and a historical pattern supporting this event.
正如前面所强调的,当前的市场状况预示着山寨币飙升的最佳时机,这是由比特币主导地位下降、USDT 外流增加以及支持这一事件的历史模式推动的。
Overall, keeping an eye on these factors is crucial. If BTC slips into consolidation – which seems likely – the next altcoin season could be triggered.
总的来说,关注这些因素至关重要。如果 BTC 陷入整合(这似乎是有可能的),则可能会触发下一个山寨币季节。
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