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加密货币新闻

比特币处于决定性的门槛

2025/01/07 03:05

比特币发现自己正处于一个战略十字路口,10万美元大关是对市场动态的重大考验。这一心理和技术层面的关键水平集中了大量的流动性,使得价格走势特别不稳定。

比特币处于决定性的门槛

The year 2025 begins on uncertain grounds for bitcoin. After reaching a peak of $108,000, the crypto quickly lost ground and fell back below the symbolic threshold of $100,000. This level, both psychological and strategic, concentrates significant liquidity, making price movements particularly unstable. According to CoinGlass, this accumulation of positions could lead to a short squeeze, triggering a sharp movement in prices.

2025 年是在比特币前景不明的情况下开始的。在达到 108,000 美元的峰值后,该加密货币迅速​​失势并回落至 100,000 美元的象征性门槛以下。这一水平,无论是心理上还是战略上,都集中了大量的流动性,使得价格走势特别不稳定。据 CoinGlass 称,这种头寸积累可能会导致轧空,引发价格大幅波动。

“A lot of liquidity at $100,000,” indicates the analysis platform. It thus highlights the importance of this threshold in the current battle between buyers and sellers.

分析平台表示,“10万美元的流动性很大”。由此凸显了这一门槛在当前买卖双方之争中的重要性。

Technical signals reinforce this uncertainty. For some observers, this level is a decisive pivot for the continuation of the bullish trend. SuperBro, in a post on January 6, 2025, on X (formerly Twitter), reminds that bitcoin is approaching its 10-week moving average, an indicator that has often preceded marked increases in the past.

技术信号强化了这种不确定性。对于一些观察家来说,这一水平是延续看涨趋势的决定性支点。 SuperBro 在 2025 年 1 月 6 日在 X(以前称为 Twitter)上发布的帖子中提醒,比特币正在接近其 10 周移动平均线,这一指标在过去通常会出现显着上涨。

Conversely, Keith Alan, co-founder of Monitoring Resource Material Indicators, is more cautious. He warns that if BTC were to fall below its 21-day moving average, a corrective movement could be triggered, bringing the price back to $76,000, a key support zone.

相反,Monitoring Resource Material Indicators 联合创始人 Keith Alan 则更为谨慎。他警告说,如果 BTC 跌破 21 天移动平均线,可能会引发修正走势,使价格回到关键支撑区域 76,000 美元。

In this technical battle, some experts believe that bitcoin’s bullish potential remains intact. Aksel Kibar, a market analyst at Tech Charts, mentions the formation of a cup & handle pattern, a chart figure that generally signals an impending bullish acceleration. “The long-term BTC/USD price chart with a cup & handle setup indicates a price target (conservative measure) of $137,000,” he specifies in a post on January 6, 2025, on X.

在这场技术战中,一些专家认为比特币的看涨潜力仍然完好无损。 Tech Charts 的市场分析师 Aksel Kibar 提到了杯柄形态的形成,该图表图形通常预示着即将到来的看涨加速。他在 2025 年 1 月 6 日 X 上的一篇文章中指出:“带有杯子和手柄设置的长期 BTC/USD 价格图表表明价格目标(保守衡量)为 137,000 美元。”

The market thus oscillates between hope for a new bullish impulse and the risk of a deep correction. Furthermore, the ability of buyers to maintain BTC above critical levels will determine whether the optimistic scenario prevails or if the market initiates a more marked retreat.

因此,市场在新的看涨冲动的希望和深度调整的风险之间摇摆。此外,买家将比特币维持在临界水平之上的能力将决定乐观情景是否占上风,或者市场是否会引发更明显的回调。

If technical factors directly influence the price of bitcoin, the macroeconomic context also plays a key role in market evolution. Expectations regarding a reduction in interest rates from the Federal Reserve have gradually eroded, altering investor anticipations. According to the latest data from the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 0.25 % decrease at the next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has dropped to 9.1 %, a level well below market expectations. This situation reinforces the risk of stagflation, a feared phenomenon where economic growth slows while inflation and unemployment rise simultaneously.

如果说技术因素直接影响比特币的价格,那么宏观经济环境也在市场演变中发挥着关键作用。对美联储降息的预期逐渐减弱,改变了投资者的预期。根据CME FedWatch工具的最新数据,联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)下一次会议降息0.25%的概率已降至9.1%,远低于市场预期。这种情况加剧了滞胀风险,滞胀是一种令人担忧的现象,即经济增长放缓,而通胀和失业率同时上升。

Despite this monetary tightening, some indicators suggest a possible change in direction. US bank reserves have fallen by $326 billion and are at their lowest level since October 2020. This massive decrease raises questions about the banking system’s ability to absorb such a shock. Some observers see this as a precursor signal for a loosening of liquidity policies, which could prompt the Fed to slow down its quantitative tightening (QT) program. Should this scenario materialize, an influx of capital into financial markets could reignite demand for risk assets, including bitcoin.

尽管货币紧缩,但一些指标表明方向可能会发生变化。美国银行准备金已减少 3260 亿美元,处于 2020 年 10 月以来的最低水平。这一大幅下降引发了人们对银行体系吸收此类冲击的能力的质疑。一些观察家认为这是放松流动性政策的先兆信号,这可能促使美联储放缓其量化紧缩(QT)计划。如果这种情况成为现实,资本涌入金融市场可能会重新点燃对包括比特币在内的风险资产的需求。

In this uncertain environment, retail investors seem to have taken a step back. According to CryptoQuant, retail transaction variation has dropped by 16% in recent weeks. Historically, such a decline often coincides with attractive entry points for institutional investors, who take advantage of these periods of disengagement from the general public to strengthen their positions. The evolution of this dynamic could play a crucial role in the next market phase of bitcoin.

在这种不确定的环境下,散户投资者似乎退了一步。根据 CryptoQuant 的数据,最近几周零售交易变化下降了 16%。从历史上看,这种下跌往往与机构投资者有吸引力的切入点同时发生,机构投资者利用这些脱离公众的时期来加强自己的头寸。这种动态的演变可能在比特币的下一个市场阶段发挥至关重要的作用。

The coming days are pivotal for bitcoin’s evolution. Indeed, the $100,000 threshold remains a tipping point, the outcome of which could define the market trajectory for the coming months. If buyers manage to defend this level and reignite the bullish momentum, some technical models, like the cup & handle formation, suggest a potential rise towards $137,000. Conversely, a break below $96,000 would heighten fears of a deeper correction, possibly returning to $76,000, where a key support zone lies. Amid the accumulation of liquidity in the markets, macroeconomic uncertainties, and analytical divergences, the year 2025 could be one of the most volatile in bitcoin’s history. The market's ability to absorb external shocks and maintain robust buying pressure will be critical for the continuation of the bullish cycle.

未来几天对于比特币的发展至关重要。事实上,10 万美元的门槛仍然是一个转折点,其结果可能决定未来几个月的市场轨迹。如果买家设法守住这一水平并重新点燃看涨势头,一些技术模型(例如杯柄形态)表明价格可能上涨至 137,000 美元。相反,跌破 96,000 美元将加剧人们对进一步回调的担忧,可能会回到关键支撑区域 76,000 美元。由于市场流动性积累、宏观经济不确定性和分析分歧,2025 年可能是比特币历史上最不稳定的一年。市场吸收外部冲击和维持强劲购买压力的能力对于牛市周期的持续至关重要。

新闻来源:www.cointribune.com

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