比特幣處於決定性的門檻

比特幣發現自己正處於戰略十字路口，10萬美元大關是對市場動態的重大考驗。這個心理和技術層面的關鍵水準集中了大量的流動性，使得價格走勢特別不穩定。

The year 2025 begins on uncertain grounds for bitcoin. After reaching a peak of $108,000, the crypto quickly lost ground and fell back below the symbolic threshold of $100,000. This level, both psychological and strategic, concentrates significant liquidity, making price movements particularly unstable. According to CoinGlass, this accumulation of positions could lead to a short squeeze, triggering a sharp movement in prices.

2025 年是在比特幣前景不明的情況下開始的。在達到 108,000 美元的峰值後，該加密貨幣迅速失勢並回落至 100,000 美元的象徵性門檻以下。這一水平，無論是心理上還是戰略上，都集中了大量的流動性，使得價格走勢特別不穩定。據 CoinGlass 稱，這種頭寸積累可能會導致軋空，引發價格大幅波動。

“A lot of liquidity at $100,000,” indicates the analysis platform. It thus highlights the importance of this threshold in the current battle between buyers and sellers.

分析平台表示，「10萬美元的流動性很大」。由此凸顯了這項門檻在目前買賣雙方之爭中的重要性。

Technical signals reinforce this uncertainty. For some observers, this level is a decisive pivot for the continuation of the bullish trend. SuperBro, in a post on January 6, 2025, on X (formerly Twitter), reminds that bitcoin is approaching its 10-week moving average, an indicator that has often preceded marked increases in the past.

技術訊號強化了這種不確定性。對一些觀察家來說，這一水準是延續看漲趨勢的決定性支點。 SuperBro 在 2025 年 1 月 6 日在 X（以前稱為 Twitter）上發布的貼文中提醒，比特幣正在接近其 10 週移動平均線，這一指標在過去通常會出現顯著上漲。

Conversely, Keith Alan, co-founder of Monitoring Resource Material Indicators, is more cautious. He warns that if BTC were to fall below its 21-day moving average, a corrective movement could be triggered, bringing the price back to $76,000, a key support zone.

相反，Monitoring Resource Material Indicators 共同創辦人 Keith Alan 則較為謹慎。他警告說，如果 BTC 跌破 21 天移動平均線，可能會引發修正走勢，使價格回到關鍵支撐區域 76,000 美元。

In this technical battle, some experts believe that bitcoin’s bullish potential remains intact. Aksel Kibar, a market analyst at Tech Charts, mentions the formation of a cup & handle pattern, a chart figure that generally signals an impending bullish acceleration. “The long-term BTC/USD price chart with a cup & handle setup indicates a price target (conservative measure) of $137,000,” he specifies in a post on January 6, 2025, on X.

在這場技術戰中，一些專家認為比特幣的看漲潛力仍然完好無損。 Tech Charts 的市場分析師 Aksel Kibar 提到了杯柄形態的形成，該圖表圖形通常預示著即將到來的看漲加速。他在 2025 年 1 月 6 日 X 上的一篇文章中指出：“帶有杯子和手柄設置的長期 BTC/USD 價格圖表表明價格目標（保守衡量）為 137,000 美元。”

The market thus oscillates between hope for a new bullish impulse and the risk of a deep correction. Furthermore, the ability of buyers to maintain BTC above critical levels will determine whether the optimistic scenario prevails or if the market initiates a more marked retreat.

因此，市場在新的看漲衝動的希望和深度調整的風險之間搖擺。此外，買家將比特幣維持在臨界水平之上的能力將決定樂觀情景是否佔上風，或者市場是否會引發更明顯的回調。

If technical factors directly influence the price of bitcoin, the macroeconomic context also plays a key role in market evolution. Expectations regarding a reduction in interest rates from the Federal Reserve have gradually eroded, altering investor anticipations. According to the latest data from the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 0.25 % decrease at the next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has dropped to 9.1 %, a level well below market expectations. This situation reinforces the risk of stagflation, a feared phenomenon where economic growth slows while inflation and unemployment rise simultaneously.

如果說技術因素直接影響比特幣的價格，那麼宏觀經濟環境也在市場演變中扮演關鍵角色。對聯準會降息的預期逐漸減弱，改變了投資人的預期。根據CME FedWatch工具的最新數據，聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)下一次會議降息0.25%的機率已降至9.1%，遠低於市場預期。這種情況加劇了滯脹風險，滯脹是一種令人擔憂的現象，即經濟成長放緩，而通膨和失業率同時上升。

Despite this monetary tightening, some indicators suggest a possible change in direction. US bank reserves have fallen by $326 billion and are at their lowest level since October 2020. This massive decrease raises questions about the banking system’s ability to absorb such a shock. Some observers see this as a precursor signal for a loosening of liquidity policies, which could prompt the Fed to slow down its quantitative tightening (QT) program. Should this scenario materialize, an influx of capital into financial markets could reignite demand for risk assets, including bitcoin.

儘管貨幣緊縮，但一些指標表明方向可能會改變。美國銀行準備金已減少 3,260 億美元，處於 2020 年 10 月以來的最低水準。一些觀察家認為這是放鬆流動性政策的先兆訊號，這可能促使聯準會放緩其​​量化緊縮（QT）計畫。如果這種情況成為現實，資本湧入金融市場可能會重新點燃對包括比特幣在內的風險資產的需求。

In this uncertain environment, retail investors seem to have taken a step back. According to CryptoQuant, retail transaction variation has dropped by 16% in recent weeks. Historically, such a decline often coincides with attractive entry points for institutional investors, who take advantage of these periods of disengagement from the general public to strengthen their positions. The evolution of this dynamic could play a crucial role in the next market phase of bitcoin.

在這種不確定的環境下，散戶似乎退了一步。根據 CryptoQuant 的數據，最近幾週零售交易變化下降了 16%。從歷史上看，這種下跌往往與機構投資者有吸引力的切入點同時發生，機構投資者利用這些脫離公眾的時期來加強自己的立場。這種動態的演進可能在比特幣的下一個市場階段中發揮至關重要的作用。

The coming days are pivotal for bitcoin’s evolution. Indeed, the $100,000 threshold remains a tipping point, the outcome of which could define the market trajectory for the coming months. If buyers manage to defend this level and reignite the bullish momentum, some technical models, like the cup & handle formation, suggest a potential rise towards $137,000. Conversely, a break below $96,000 would heighten fears of a deeper correction, possibly returning to $76,000, where a key support zone lies. Amid the accumulation of liquidity in the markets, macroeconomic uncertainties, and analytical divergences, the year 2025 could be one of the most volatile in bitcoin’s history. The market's ability to absorb external shocks and maintain robust buying pressure will be critical for the continuation of the bullish cycle.

未來幾天對於比特幣的發展至關重要。事實上，10 萬美元的門檻仍然是一個轉捩點，其結果可能決定未來幾個月的市場軌跡。如果買家設法守住這一水平並重新點燃看漲勢頭，一些技術模型（例如杯柄形態）表明價格可能上漲至 137,000 美元。相反，跌破 96,000 美元將加劇人們對進一步回調的擔憂，可能會回到關鍵支撐區域 76,000 美元。由於市場流動性累積、宏觀經濟不確定性和分析分歧，2025 年可能是比特幣歷史上最不穩定的一年。市場吸收外部衝擊和維持強勁購買壓力的能力對於牛市週期的持續至關重要。