比特币的当前周期与2017年和2021年的结构重置都显示出很强的相似性。

关键市场指标，例如比特币与市场波动率（BTC/VIX比率）之间的关系以及每周图表上的加密市值总资本化

Bitcoin’s current cycle shows strong similarities to the structural resets seen in both 2017 and 2021.

比特币的当前周期与2017年和2021年的结构重置都显示出很强的相似性。

Key market indicators, like the relationship between Bitcoin and market volatility (BTC/VIX ratio) and the total crypto market capitalization on weekly charts, are showing alignments similar to those seen near previous important market shifts. These past major price adjustments acted as more than just downturns; they effectively reset the market before subsequent major upward trends began.

关键市场指标，例如比特币与市场波动率（BTC/VIX比率）与每周图表上的加密市值总资本化之间的关系，显示出类似于与以前重要的市场变化相似的一致性。这些过去的主要价格调整不仅仅是低迷的作用。在随后的主要上升趋势开始之前，他们有效地重置了市场。

The Bitcoin Script: How Past Crashes Historically Set Up New Highs

比特币脚本：过去如何崩溃在历史上建立了新的高点

Looking at the bigger picture, Bitcoin’s price history reveals a repeating multi-year structure. Typically, strong upward legs driven by widespread excitement eventually end in steep price drops (historically sometimes over 80%-85% from the peak). Following these major drops, were the quieter periods where, dedicated long-term investors used to steadily keep buying, laying the groundwork for the next significant climb. Examples include the lows reached around $200 after 2013, near $3,000 after 2017, and around $16,000 following the 2021 peak.

从更大的情况下，比特币的价格历史揭示了重复的多年结构。通常，受到广泛兴奋驱动的强大向上的腿最终会以陡峭的价格下降（历史上有时从峰值到80％以上）。这些重大跌幅之后，是一个更安静的时期，敬业的长期投资者曾经稳步购买，这为下一个重大攀登奠定了基础。例子包括2013年之后的低点约为200美元，在2017年之后的3,000美元和2021年峰值之后约16,000美元。

The 2025 structure now shows a familiar rhythm: after topping above $100,000, Bitcoin dropped sharply to below $80,000, driven by macroeconomic stress and heightened geopolitical risks. Importantly, this pullback has brought prices into zones where significant buying emerged in past cycles, potentially preparing the ground for the next upward trend.

2025年的结构现在显示出一种熟悉的节奏：在超过100,000美元以上，比特币急剧下降至80,000美元以下，这是由于宏观经济压力和地缘政治风险的增加。重要的是，这种回调将价格带入了过去的周期中出现大量购买的区域，有可能为下一个上升趋势做好准备。

Bitcoin Price Check: Can BTC Break Key Resistance to Confirm Pattern?

比特币价格检查：BTC可以断开钥匙阻力确认模式吗？

Bitcoin is currently trading near $85,050, working its way back up from recent lows of $74,436. On the 4-hour chart, the price has pushed above the descending trendline, now in the immediate overhead supply concentrated between $84,200 and $85,700. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits around 59.58, suggesting moderate buying energy present without the market being excessively overheated.

比特币目前的交易价格接近$ 85,050，从最近的74,436美元的低点起便利。在4小时的图表上，价格已超过下降趋势线，现在在直接的高架供应中集中在84,200美元至85,700美元之间。相对强度指数（RSI）的位置约为59.58，表明存在中等的购买能源，而没有市场过热。

Fibonacci retracement levels, for instance, offer clearer targets: $85,700 (0.786), $88,700 (1.0), and $97,600 (1.618), with potential upside to $111,900 (2.618) if the trend continuation is confirmed. A daily close above $88,000 stays as the critical threshold for bullish validation. On the downside, key support levels sit at $82,000, followed by $79,900 and $77,800.

例如，斐波那契回收水平提供更清晰的目标：$ 85,700（0.786），88,700美元（1.0）和97,600美元（1.618），如果确认趋势进行了确认，则可能上涨至111,900美元（2.618）。每天关闭88,000美元的收盘价是看涨验证的关键门槛。不利的一面是，密钥支持水平为82,000美元，其次是$ 79,900和77,800美元。

If History Guides, Could Bitcoin Already Be Building Towards $150k?

如果历史指南，比特币可以已经朝15万美元建设？

The market structure, coupled with on-chain indicators and historical cycle patterns, suggests Bitcoin may be entering a pressure build-up phase ahead of another expansion. However, confirmation will depend on volume, breakout strength above $88,000, and the sustained return of institutional buying. If history repeats, Bitcoin’s path to $150,000 might already be underway.

市场结构以及链上指标和历史周期模式，表明比特币可能正在进入压力积累阶段，然后再进行另一个扩展。但是，确认将取决于数量，超过88,000美元的突破实力以及机构购买的持续回报。如果历史重复，比特币的$ 150,000的道路可能已经在进行。