比特幣的當前週期與2017年和2021年的結構重置都顯示出很強的相似性。

關鍵市場指標，例如比特幣與市場波動率（BTC/VIX比率）之間的關係以及每週圖表上的加密市值總資本化

Bitcoin’s current cycle shows strong similarities to the structural resets seen in both 2017 and 2021.

比特幣的當前週期與2017年和2021年的結構重置都顯示出很強的相似性。

Key market indicators, like the relationship between Bitcoin and market volatility (BTC/VIX ratio) and the total crypto market capitalization on weekly charts, are showing alignments similar to those seen near previous important market shifts. These past major price adjustments acted as more than just downturns; they effectively reset the market before subsequent major upward trends began.

關鍵市場指標，例如比特幣與市場波動率（BTC/VIX比率）與每週圖表上的加密市值總資本化之間的關係，顯示出類似於與以前重要的市場變化相似的一致性。這些過去的主要價格調整不僅僅是低迷的作用。在隨後的主要上升趨勢開始之前，他們有效地重置了市場。

The Bitcoin Script: How Past Crashes Historically Set Up New Highs

比特幣腳本：過去如何崩潰在歷史上建立了新的高點

Looking at the bigger picture, Bitcoin’s price history reveals a repeating multi-year structure. Typically, strong upward legs driven by widespread excitement eventually end in steep price drops (historically sometimes over 80%-85% from the peak). Following these major drops, were the quieter periods where, dedicated long-term investors used to steadily keep buying, laying the groundwork for the next significant climb. Examples include the lows reached around $200 after 2013, near $3,000 after 2017, and around $16,000 following the 2021 peak.

從更大的情況下，比特幣的價格歷史揭示了重複的多年結構。通常，受到廣泛興奮驅動的強大向上的腿最終會以陡峭的價格下降（歷史上有時從峰值到80％以上）。這些重大跌幅之後，是一個更安靜的時期，敬業的長期投資者曾經穩步購買，這為下一個重大攀登奠定了基礎。例子包括2013年之後的低點約為200美元，在2017年之後的3,000美元和2021年峰值之後約16,000美元。

The 2025 structure now shows a familiar rhythm: after topping above $100,000, Bitcoin dropped sharply to below $80,000, driven by macroeconomic stress and heightened geopolitical risks. Importantly, this pullback has brought prices into zones where significant buying emerged in past cycles, potentially preparing the ground for the next upward trend.

2025年的結構現在顯示出一種熟悉的節奏：在超過100,000美元以上，比特幣急劇下降至80,000美元以下，這是由於宏觀經濟壓力和地緣政治風險的增加。重要的是，這種回調將價格帶入了過去的周期中出現大量購買的區域，有可能為下一個上升趨勢做好準備。

Bitcoin Price Check: Can BTC Break Key Resistance to Confirm Pattern?

比特幣價格檢查：BTC可以斷開鑰匙阻力確認模式嗎？

Bitcoin is currently trading near $85,050, working its way back up from recent lows of $74,436. On the 4-hour chart, the price has pushed above the descending trendline, now in the immediate overhead supply concentrated between $84,200 and $85,700. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits around 59.58, suggesting moderate buying energy present without the market being excessively overheated.

比特幣目前的交易價格接近$ 85,050，從最近的74,436美元的低點起便利。在4小時的圖表上，價格已超過下降趨勢線，現在在直接的高架供應中集中在84,200美元至85,700美元之間。相對強度指數（RSI）的位置約為59.58，表明存在中等的購買能源，而沒有市場過熱。

Fibonacci retracement levels, for instance, offer clearer targets: $85,700 (0.786), $88,700 (1.0), and $97,600 (1.618), with potential upside to $111,900 (2.618) if the trend continuation is confirmed. A daily close above $88,000 stays as the critical threshold for bullish validation. On the downside, key support levels sit at $82,000, followed by $79,900 and $77,800.

例如，斐波那契回收水平提供更清晰的目標：$ 85,700（0.786），88,700美元（1.0）和97,600美元（1.618），如果確認趨勢進行了確認，則可能上漲至111,900美元（2.618）。每天關閉88,000美元的收盤價是看漲驗證的關鍵門檻。不利的一面是，密鑰支持水平為82,000美元，其次是$ 79,900和77,800美元。

If History Guides, Could Bitcoin Already Be Building Towards $150k?

如果歷史指南，比特幣可以已經朝15萬美元建設？

The market structure, coupled with on-chain indicators and historical cycle patterns, suggests Bitcoin may be entering a pressure build-up phase ahead of another expansion. However, confirmation will depend on volume, breakout strength above $88,000, and the sustained return of institutional buying. If history repeats, Bitcoin’s path to $150,000 might already be underway.

市場結構以及鏈上指標和歷史週期模式，表明比特幣可能正在進入壓力積累階段，然後再進行另一個擴展。但是，確認將取決於數量，超過88,000美元的突破實力以及機構購買的持續回報。如果歷史重複，比特幣的$ 150,000的道路可能已經在進行。