比特币（加密：BTC）可能是最安全的加密货币之一

比特币（Crypto：BTC）可能是您可以投资最安全的加密货币之一，但这并不是无风险的投资

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) might be one of the safest cryptocurrencies you can invest in, but that does not make it a risk-free investment, nor does it mean that you can approach it casually. What's more, there's some information that suggests most investors are completely ignoring or badly misinterpreting an important and highly noticeable sign.

比特币（Crypto：BTC）可能是您可以投资的最安全的加密货币之一，但这并不能使其成为无风险的投资，也不意味着您可以随意地对待它。而且，有一些信息表明，大多数投资者完全忽略或严重误解了一个重要且高度明显的信号。

Here's what you need to be watching out for.

这是您需要提防的。

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This finding turns the traditional wisdom on its head

这一发现使传统的智慧在其头上

Most cryptocurrency investors love to see it when their coins are being discussed extensively on social media. More attention means more opportunities to capitalise on investors who might have been on the sidelines, unaware of the returns available in a given asset. It's nearly impossible to discuss most coins without also referencing recent price action, which can make online discussion a great advertisement for buying an asset immediately, either to avoid missing out, or to grab some while it's relatively cheaper -- so this line of thinking goes.

大多数加密货币投资者都喜欢在社交媒体上广泛讨论硬币时看到它。更多的关注意味着更多机会利用可能在场外的投资者，这不知道给定资产中可用的回报。如果不参考最近的价格行动，就几乎不可能讨论大多数硬币，这可能会使在线讨论成为立即购买资产的好广告，以免错过错过，或者在相对便宜的时候抓住一些资产 - 因此，这种思维方式会发生。

There's more than one problem with that perspective. A coin that gets attention, even on a sustained basis, is not the same as a coin having an investment thesis which warrants the allocation of your capital. The reality is that most cryptocurrencies get attention for a moment while the price is rising, which then proves to just be a flash in the pan.

这种观点有多个问题。即使在持续的基础上，引起关注的硬币也与具有投资论文的硬币不一样，该论文值得您分配您的资本。现实情况是，大多数加密货币在价格上涨时会引起人们的注意，然后证明这只是锅中的闪光。

Another issue is that investors who are easily moved into making a purchase by seeing a few exuberant posts on social media will, in all probability, also be easily cajoled into selling their coins when they see a few bearish takes. So the price rise that may be created by a spurt of viral attention is practically guaranteed to be short-lived.

另一个问题是，通过在社交媒体上看到一些旺盛的帖子，很可能很容易被转移到进行购买的投资者很可能很可能会在看到一些看跌时很容易出售自己的硬币。因此，实际上，一定会因病毒关注而产生的价格上涨实际上是短暂的。

As if that weren't enough, there is actually some evidence that when a coin gets discussed extensively on social media, particularly X (formerly Twitter), its price is more likely to fall than rise. Per a paper published by a pair of professors from California State University in mid-2024, after the initial bump in a coin's price from a spike in attention on social media, sustained engagement on social media actually foreshadows lower prices. That dynamic was demonstrated in Bitcoin specifically, as well as most of the other largest cryptocurrencies.

好像这还不够，实际上有证据表明，当硬币在社交媒体上进行广泛讨论时，尤其是X（以前是Twitter）时，其价格的可能性比上升的可能性更大。根据一对加利福尼亚州立大学一对教授在2024年中期发表的论文，此前硬币的价格最初是因为在社交媒体上的注意力激增，社交媒体上的持续参与实际上预示了较低的价格。该动态在比特币以及大多数其他最大的加密货币中得到了证明。

People flock to buy coins they think are going up, because they see that the coin has just gone up. By the time they arrive, it's too late. What's left is their hope, which remains unfulfilled. The solution? Try to get others to buy in. It doesn't seem to work on average.

人们涌向购买他们认为正在上升的硬币，因为他们看到硬币刚刚上升。到他们到达时，为时已晚。剩下的就是他们的希望，这仍然没有实现。解决方案？尝试让其他人购买。它似乎平均不起作用。

That means you now have one new counterintuitive sign to watch out for with Bitcoin. By the time you're seeing bullish posts celebrating returns on your news feed, the increase in its price could be in the rearview mirror, at least for the short term. And the fact that there are a lot of evangelists constantly talking about the coin's potential, even if they're doing it over the long term, is not necessarily as positive as one might assume.

这意味着您现在有一个新的违反直觉标志，可以使用比特币。当您看到看涨的帖子庆祝新闻提要上的回报时，至少在短期内，其价格上涨可能是在后视镜中。而且，有很多福音传教士不断谈论硬币的潜力，即使他们从长远来看，也不一定像人们想象的那样积极。

Stay focused on what matters most

专注于最重要的事情

The smart way to handle this information is to disengage yourself from sources of data that do not help you to evaluate the investment thesis for buying a coin.

处理此信息的明智方法是将自己脱离数据来源，这些数据源无助于您评估购买硬币的投资论文。

For Bitcoin, the whole point of holding it for the long term is that it is programmed to get relatively scarcer over time, as it becomes harder and harder to mine. That process does not have anything to do with it being discussed on social media. While it's true that attention can generate some demand, at least temporarily, the beauty of the coin as an investment is that it does not need a significant increase in demand for the price to continue to rise, as it is more likely to be in shorter supply in future years compared to prior years.

对于比特币而言，长期持有它的全部要点是，随着时间的流逝，它会变得相对稀缺，因为它变得越来越难。该过程与在社交媒体上讨论的过程无关。确实，关注至少可以暂时产生一些需求，但硬币作为投资的美感是，它不需要对价格的需求显着提高，因为与前几年相比，它更有可能在未来几年中更短的供应。

In other words, you will have more success investing in Bitcoin if you use the pullbacks generated by the hangover of social media-driven pumps as opportunities to buy the dip. That will be especially true if you deploy your capital gradually rather than rapidly, as patience will give you more opportunities for cheap purchases and diminish the impact of buying when the coin is more expensive.

换句话说，如果您使用由社交媒体驱动的泵宿醉产生的回调，则将在比特币上进行更多的成功。如果您逐渐而不是迅速部署资本，那将是尤其如此，因为耐心将为您提供更多廉价购买的机会，并减少在硬币更昂贵时购买的影响。

Remember: There is no rush here. Bitcoin is not an investment to hold until later today or tomorrow; it's an investment to hold for 10, 20, or 30 years, when its price is likely to be much higher than right now.

请记住：这里没有匆忙。直到今天或明天，比特币才是要持有的投资。持有10、20或30年的投资，当时其价格可能比现在高得多。

Don’t miss this second chance at a potentially lucrative opportunity

不要错过潜在利润的机会的第二次机会

Ever feel like you missed the boat in buying the most successful stocks? Then you’ll want to hear this.

曾经觉得您错过了购买最成功的股票的船吗？然后，您将需要听到这个消息。

On rare occasions, our expert team of analysts issues a “Double Down” stock recommendation for companies that they think are about to pop. If you’re worried you’ve already missed your chance to invest, now is the best time to buy before it’s too late. And the numbers speak for themselves:

在极少数情况下，我们的分析师专家团队为他们认为即将流行的公司发出了“双重下降”股票建议。如果您担心自己已​​经错过了投资的机会，那么现在是在为时已晚之前购买的最佳时间。数字自言自语：

Nvidia