比特幣（加密：BTC）可能是最安全的加密貨幣之一

比特幣（Crypto：BTC）可能是您可以投資最安全的加密貨幣之一，但這並不是無風險的投資

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) might be one of the safest cryptocurrencies you can invest in, but that does not make it a risk-free investment, nor does it mean that you can approach it casually. What's more, there's some information that suggests most investors are completely ignoring or badly misinterpreting an important and highly noticeable sign.

比特幣（Crypto：BTC）可能是您可以投資的最安全的加密貨幣之一，但這並不能使其成為無風險的投資，也不意味著您可以隨意地對待它。而且，有一些信息表明，大多數投資者完全忽略或嚴重誤解了一個重要且高度明顯的信號。

Here's what you need to be watching out for.

這是您需要提防的。

Start Your Mornings Smarter! Wake up with Breakfast news in your inbox every market day. Sign Up For Free »

更聰明地開始您的早晨！每個市場每天都會在收件箱中醒來。免費註冊»

This finding turns the traditional wisdom on its head

這一發現使傳統的智慧在其頭上

Most cryptocurrency investors love to see it when their coins are being discussed extensively on social media. More attention means more opportunities to capitalise on investors who might have been on the sidelines, unaware of the returns available in a given asset. It's nearly impossible to discuss most coins without also referencing recent price action, which can make online discussion a great advertisement for buying an asset immediately, either to avoid missing out, or to grab some while it's relatively cheaper -- so this line of thinking goes.

大多數加密貨幣投資者都喜歡在社交媒體上廣泛討論硬幣時看到它。更多的關注意味著更多機會利用可能在場外的投資者，這不知道給定資產中可用的回報。如果不參考最近的價格行動，就幾乎不可能討論大多數硬幣，這可能會使在線討論成為立即購買資產的好廣告，以免錯過錯過，或者在相對便宜的時候抓住一些資產 - 因此，這種思維方式會發生。

There's more than one problem with that perspective. A coin that gets attention, even on a sustained basis, is not the same as a coin having an investment thesis which warrants the allocation of your capital. The reality is that most cryptocurrencies get attention for a moment while the price is rising, which then proves to just be a flash in the pan.

這種觀點有多個問題。即使在持續的基礎上，引起關注的硬幣也與具有投資論文的硬幣不一樣，該論文值得您分配您的資本。現實情況是，大多數加密貨幣在價格上漲時會引起人們的注意，然後證明這只是鍋中的閃光。

Another issue is that investors who are easily moved into making a purchase by seeing a few exuberant posts on social media will, in all probability, also be easily cajoled into selling their coins when they see a few bearish takes. So the price rise that may be created by a spurt of viral attention is practically guaranteed to be short-lived.

另一個問題是，通過在社交媒體上看到一些旺盛的帖子，很可能很容易被轉移到進行購買的投資者很可能很可能會在看到一些看跌時很容易出售自己的硬幣。因此，實際上，一定會因病毒關注而產生的價格上漲實際上是短暫的。

As if that weren't enough, there is actually some evidence that when a coin gets discussed extensively on social media, particularly X (formerly Twitter), its price is more likely to fall than rise. Per a paper published by a pair of professors from California State University in mid-2024, after the initial bump in a coin's price from a spike in attention on social media, sustained engagement on social media actually foreshadows lower prices. That dynamic was demonstrated in Bitcoin specifically, as well as most of the other largest cryptocurrencies.

好像這還不夠，實際上有證據表明，當硬幣在社交媒體上進行廣泛討論時，尤其是X（以前是Twitter）時，其價格的可能性比上升的可能性更大。根據一對加利福尼亞州立大學一對教授在2024年中期發表的論文，此前硬幣的價格最初是因為在社交媒體上的注意力激增，社交媒體上的持續參與實際上預示了較低的價格。該動態在比特幣以及大多數其他最大的加密貨幣中得到了證明。

People flock to buy coins they think are going up, because they see that the coin has just gone up. By the time they arrive, it's too late. What's left is their hope, which remains unfulfilled. The solution? Try to get others to buy in. It doesn't seem to work on average.

人們湧向購買他們認為正在上升的硬幣，因為他們看到硬幣剛剛上升。到他們到達時，為時已晚。剩下的就是他們的希望，這仍然沒有實現。解決方案？嘗試讓其他人購買。它似乎平均不起作用。

That means you now have one new counterintuitive sign to watch out for with Bitcoin. By the time you're seeing bullish posts celebrating returns on your news feed, the increase in its price could be in the rearview mirror, at least for the short term. And the fact that there are a lot of evangelists constantly talking about the coin's potential, even if they're doing it over the long term, is not necessarily as positive as one might assume.

這意味著您現在有一個新的違反直覺標誌，可以使用比特幣。當您看到看漲的帖子慶祝新聞提要上的回報時，至少在短期內，其價格上漲可能是在後視鏡中。而且，有很多福音傳教士不斷談論硬幣的潛力，即使他們從長遠來看，也不一定像人們想像的那樣積極。

Stay focused on what matters most

專注於最重要的事情

The smart way to handle this information is to disengage yourself from sources of data that do not help you to evaluate the investment thesis for buying a coin.

處理此信息的明智方法是將自己脫離數據來源，這些數據源無助於您評估購買硬幣的投資論文。

For Bitcoin, the whole point of holding it for the long term is that it is programmed to get relatively scarcer over time, as it becomes harder and harder to mine. That process does not have anything to do with it being discussed on social media. While it's true that attention can generate some demand, at least temporarily, the beauty of the coin as an investment is that it does not need a significant increase in demand for the price to continue to rise, as it is more likely to be in shorter supply in future years compared to prior years.

對於比特幣而言，長期持有它的全部要點是，隨著時間的流逝，它會變得相對稀缺，因為它變得越來越難。該過程與在社交媒體上討論的過程無關。確實，關注至少可以暫時產生一些需求，但硬幣作為投資的美感是，它不需要對價格的需求顯著提高，因為與前幾年相比，它更有可能在未來幾年中更短的供應。

In other words, you will have more success investing in Bitcoin if you use the pullbacks generated by the hangover of social media-driven pumps as opportunities to buy the dip. That will be especially true if you deploy your capital gradually rather than rapidly, as patience will give you more opportunities for cheap purchases and diminish the impact of buying when the coin is more expensive.

換句話說，如果您使用由社交媒體驅動的泵宿醉產生的回調，則將在比特幣上進行更多的成功。如果您逐漸而不是迅速部署資本，那將是尤其如此，因為耐心將為您提供更多廉價購買的機會，並減少在硬幣更昂貴時購買的影響。

Remember: There is no rush here. Bitcoin is not an investment to hold until later today or tomorrow; it's an investment to hold for 10, 20, or 30 years, when its price is likely to be much higher than right now.

請記住：這裡沒有匆忙。直到今天或明天，比特幣才是要持有的投資。持有10、20或30年的投資，當時其價格可能比現在高得多。

Don’t miss this second chance at a potentially lucrative opportunity

不要錯過潛在利潤的機會的第二次機會

Ever feel like you missed the boat in buying the most successful stocks? Then you’ll want to hear this.

曾經覺得您錯過了購買最成功的股票的船嗎？然後，您將需要聽到這個消息。

On rare occasions, our expert team of analysts issues a “Double Down” stock recommendation for companies that they think are about to pop. If you’re worried you’ve already missed your chance to invest, now is the best time to buy before it’s too late. And the numbers speak for themselves:

在極少數情況下，我們的分析師專家團隊為他們認為即將流行的公司發出了“雙重下降”股票建議。如果您擔心自己已​​經錯過了投資的機會，那麼現在是在為時已晚之前購買的最佳時間。數字自言自語：

Nvidia