比特币盘整，但技术面暗示看跌前景中潜在的情绪转变

在看跌情绪中，比特币继续盘整，但技术指标表明前景可能发生变化。尽管获利回吐和风险偏好受到抑制，但比特币的弹性和新兴需求领域表明了潜在的突破。机构采用和对未来降息的预期可能会推动对风险资产的需求增加，从而使比特币受益。然而，美国非农就业数据可能会影响定价，积极的趋势可能会给风险资产带来压力，并将比特币推向65,000美元的水平。

Bitcoin Consolidates Amid Bearish Outlook, but Technical Hints Signal Potential Sentiment Shift

比特币在看跌前景中盘整，但技术暗示预示着潜在的情绪转变

Bitcoin's consolidation phase continues into its fourth week, with the cryptocurrency confined to a range below the $70,000 mark. The ongoing negative market sentiment has been driven by profit-taking expectations, dampened risk appetite, reduced demand for Bitcoin ETFs, and the US government's attempt to sell seized BTC. These factors weighed on Bitcoin's price, pushing it below $70,000 and testing levels beneath $65,000.

比特币的盘整阶段已进入第四周，加密货币价格被限制在 70,000 美元大关以下的区间内。持续的负面市场情绪是由获利预期、风险偏好减弱、比特币 ETF 需求减少以及美国政府试图出售扣押的 BTC 推动的。这些因素打压了比特币的价格，使其跌破 70,000 美元并测试 65,000 美元以下的水平。

Despite the recent corrections, Bitcoin's resilience is evident, particularly considering the upward trend observed in 2024. New demand areas have emerged around $65,000, and the cryptocurrency has shown increased resilience against declines. However, the absence of fresh positive developments is stifling new buying interest, leaving ETF investors as the primary group supporting the market.

尽管最近出现了调整，但比特币的弹性是显而易见的，特别是考虑到 2024 年观察到的上升趋势。新的需求领域出现在 65,000 美元左右，并且加密货币显示出更强的抵御下跌的弹性。然而，缺乏新的积极进展正在抑制新的购买兴趣，使得 ETF 投资者成为支撑市场的主要群体。

The upcoming Bitcoin halving this month has been highly anticipated, but the prevailing view is that its effects are already factored into Bitcoin's price, having reached new highs before the event. Therefore, no short-term price surges are expected as a result of the halving.

本月即将到来的比特币减半备受期待，但普遍的观点是，其影响已经计入比特币的价格中，在减半事件发生前已达到新高。因此，预计减半不会导致短期价格飙升。

Nevertheless, Bitcoin has experienced an unprecedented surge in demand over the past three months, fueled by institutional adoption. This surge has led to over 4% of the total Bitcoin supply being held in the spot ETF market. With the halving reducing Bitcoin's supply, its impact may be felt sooner than in previous years.

尽管如此，在机构采用的推动下，过去三个月比特币的需求出现了前所未有的激增。这一激增导致超过 4% 的比特币供应量被存放在现货 ETF 市场上。随着减半导致比特币供应量减少，其影响可能比前几年更早感受到。

Furthermore, strong market expectations of future interest rate cuts by the Fed, possibly in the second half of the year, along with similar expectations from the ECB, could drive increased demand for risk assets. This, in turn, may positively influence Bitcoin, potentially leading to new highs throughout the year.

此外，市场对美联储未来可能在下半年降息的强烈预期，以及欧洲央行的类似预期，可能会推动对风险资产的需求增加。反过来，这可能会对比特币产生积极影响，并可能导致全年新高。

Today's US nonfarm payrolls data could influence pricing, especially after the mid-week ADP Private Employment figures exceeded expectations. A continued positive trend in nonfarm payrolls may exert pressure on risk assets, including Bitcoin.

今天的美国非农就业数据可能会影响定价，尤其是在周中 ADP 私人就业数据超出预期之后。非农就业人口的持续积极趋势可能会给包括比特币在内的风险资产带来压力。

In such a scenario, Bitcoin could trend towards the $65,000 level, with a potential reaction purchase towards $67,000 based on the short-term symmetrical triangle pattern. A weekly close above short-term EMA values around $67,000 could propel Bitcoin toward $80,000, potentially surprising investors with a breakout to the upside.

在这种情况下，比特币可能会趋向 65,000 美元的水平，根据短期对称三角形模式，潜在的反应购买价格可能会达到 67,000 美元。每周收盘价高于 67,000 美元左右的短期 EMA 值可能会推动比特币涨向 80,000 美元，突破上行可能会让投资者感到惊讶。

Conversely, close monitoring of the $65,000 limit is essential. A weekly close below this level may signal bears' dominance, potentially pushing the cryptocurrency back to the $60,000 range. A decline could lead the crypto to the next demand zone around $57,000.

相反，密切监控 65,000 美元的限额至关重要。每周收盘价低于该水平可能预示着空头占据主导地位，有可能将加密货币推回到 60,000 美元的区间。下跌可能导致加密货币进入下一个需求区域 57,000 美元左右。

In conclusion, while Bitcoin's consolidation phase continues amid a bearish outlook, certain technical indicators suggest that the negative sentiment surrounding the cryptocurrency might shift soon. The emergence of new demand areas, increased resilience against declines, and strong market expectations of future interest rate cuts could all contribute to a potential breakout in Bitcoin's price. However, close monitoring of key economic data and market indicators is crucial to determine the direction of the cryptocurrency in the coming weeks.

总之，虽然比特币的盘整阶段在看跌前景中继续，但某些技术指标表明围绕加密货币的负面情绪可能很快就会改变。新需求领域的出现、抵御下跌的能力增强以及市场对未来降息的强烈预期都可能有助于比特币价格的潜在突破。然而，密切监控关键经济数据和市场指标对于确定未来几周加密货币的走向至关重要。